Tuesday 14th September 2021: Technical Outlook and Review

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DXY:

Looking at the Weekly chart price may bearish towards the 1st support at 90.346 in line with 76.4% Fibonacci retracement and 76.4% Fibonacci extension. Our bearish bias is further supported by stochastic testing resistance where price dropped in the past. Otherwise, price may be bullish towards the 1st resistance at 93.829 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension.

On the Daily timeframe, Price may bearish from 1st resistance at 93.181 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement  and 61.8% Fibonacci extension towards the 1st support at 91.262 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 50% Fibonacci extension. Our bearish bias is further supported by MACD showing a bearish signal with the signal line above the MACD line. Otherwise, price may bullish towards the 2nd resistance at 93.829 in line with Horizontal swing high and 78.6% Fibonacci extension.

On the H4 timeframe, prices tested 1st resistance twice at 92.921 in line with 50% fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci extension and may face bearish pressure towards the 1st support at 91.782 in line with horizontal swing low and 61.8% Fibonacci extension. Our bearish bias is further supported by how stochastic testing resistance where price dropped in the past. Otherwise, price may bullish towards the 2nd resistance at 93.181 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, 2nd resistance of 93.181
  • H4 time frame, 1st support of 91.782

XAU/USD (GOLD):

On the weekly timeframe, price is on a downward trend and might be dipping towards 1st support at 1734.42, 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Long term buyers could look to short the market as indicators are showing bearish momentum. Breaking the 1st support will see prices dipping further to our 2nd area of support at 1681.75,61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Alternatively, price may push closer to the bearish trendline before dipping towards our support levels.

On the Daily chart, price is hovering below our 20 EMA close to our 1st support at 1776.55 with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. We see the possibility of a bearish scenario where prices will dip further down towards our 1st 1776.55. Technical indicators are showing bearish momentum. Breaking 1st support at 1776.55 Fibonacci 61.8% retracement will see price dipping towards 2nd support of 1729.71 at 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.

On the H4 chart, price is on a bearish momentum. In the short term, we see a likelihood of prices dipping further towards our 1st support at 1775.53 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement. Technical indicators are signalling bearish momentum. Otherwise breaking the 1st support might see prices dipping towards our 2nd support level at 1762.95, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.

Areas of consideration:

  • 4h 1st support at 1775.53
  • 4h 2nd support at 1762.92

EUR/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart we can see that the price is facing bearish pressure from previous breakdown trendline resistance at 1.18940, in-line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. On the Daily chart, price is still hovering around previous support around 1.18155, in-line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, 20EMA and 50MA. We could potentially further downside if price breaks this support level.

On the H4 timeframe prices from support at 1.17865, in-line with 50% Fibonacci retracement, 78.6% Fibonacci extension and 200MA. Price is currently retesting previous brokedown level where it could potentially face bearish pressure and drop to first support at 1.17570, in-line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension. The next potential support could be at 1.17165, in-line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 127.2% Fibonacci extension.

If the price bounces above, it could potentially swing towards first resistance at 1.18560, in-line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension. The next potential resistance could be at 1.18900, in-line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, 127.2% Fibonacci extension and ascending trendline support-turned-resistance.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, support level at 1.17570 and 1.17165
  • H4 time frame, resistance level at 1.18560 and 1.18900

 

USD/CHF:

On the weekly, price is holding above ascending trendline support and also between 1st resistance at 0.95124 and 1st support at 0.90391. Traders should watch these levels closely for a break to see prices swing higher or drop lower. On the Daily, the price is consolidating in between the 1st support and resistance. It is seen to have a bullish movement towards the 1st resistance at 0.0.92676. With stochastics abiding to the ascending trendline, we can see that there is potential bullish movement.

On the H4, price is seen to be reacting in between 1st Resistance at 0.92676 and 1st Support at 0.90757 where we can see a triangle pattern formed, price has broken out of the triangle pattern on the upside and hence, shows a strong bullish momentum. Our bullish bias is further supported by the MACD line crossed above the signal line.

Areas of consideration:

  • Watch 1st resistance at 0.92676
  • Watch 1st support at 0.90757

GBP/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart, the price is trying to rebound after last week’s drop. On the Daily time frame, price bounced off previous trendline breakout support at 1.37480, in-line with 50% Fibonacci retracement.

On the H4 timeframe, prices are consolidating sideways and could potentially be forming a bearish flag after double top bearish reversal to drop to first support at 1.37785, in-line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, 61.8% Fibonacci extension and horizontal overlap support. The next potential support could be at 1.37210,  in-line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, 78.6% Fibonacci extension and horizontal overlap support.

If price bounces, it could potentially swing towards first resistance at 1.39000, in-line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 127.2% Fibonacci extension. The next potential resistance could be at 1.39485,  in-line with -61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 161.8% Fibonacci extension.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, 37785 and 1.37210 support level
  • H4 time frame, 1.39000 and 1.39485 resistance level

 

USD/JPY

From the weekly timeframe, price is below the descending trendline resistance, and may bearish to 1st support 107.480 in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 38.2% Fibonacci extension. Otherwise, price might move towards the 1st resistance at 111.660  in line with Horizontal Swing High and 50% Fibonacci extension.

On the Daily timeframe, price is below the descending trendline resistance and may bearish to 1st support at 108.559 in line with Horizontal Swing Low and  127.2% Fibonacci extension. Our bearish view is further supported by how MACD is shown to be holding below the 0 line. Otherwise, price might move towards the 1st resistance at 110.306 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 38.2% Fibonacci extension.

On the H4  timeframe,  price is below the descending threadline resistance and may bearish to the 1st support at 109.117 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci extension. Our bearish bias is further supported by how stochastic testing resistance where price dropped in the past. Otherwise, price may bullish towards the 1st resistance at 110.306 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 50% Fibonacci extension.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, 1st resistance of 110.306
  • H4 time frame, 1st support of 109.117

AUD/USD:

On the weekly, price is holding above the MA 100 showing bullish momentum, price is expected to push towards the first resistance in line with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. Our bullish bias is further supported by the Stochastic indicator, where the K% line bounced off the support level. On the Daily, the price is holding above EMA 34 showing a potential bullish momentum, price bounced off from the first support towards the first resistance 0.75296 in line with the 100.0% Fibonacci extension and 50.0% Fibonacci retracement. Our potential short term bullish bias is further supported with the MACD indicator where the MACD line crosses above the signal line.

On the H4, price is seen to have broken off the descending trendline resistance turned support and price is holding above the 200 Period MA and a golden cross was formed. Price is expected to push to the new 1st Resistance level in line with 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement. Our short term bullish bias is further supported by the stochastic indicator %K line where it bounces off the support.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 1st resistance level 0.75296
  • H4 1st support level 0.71677

NZD/USD:

On the weekly, price has recently bounced off 1st resistance at 0.71770, in-line with 50% Fibonacci retracement, 100% Fibonacci extension, and descending trendline and is dipping towards the 1st support at 0.68000. Swing traders may potentially enter with shorts as we see potentially a bearish momentum in line with the descending trendline. Stochastics is indicating close to an overbought situation, supporting bearish view.

On the Daily chart, price has recently retraced to touch the bearish trendline and is hovering around our first resistance at 0.71445, in-line with 161.8%% Fibonacci extension. We foresee potentially a dip further towards our 1st support at 0.69958 with 61.8% and 50% Fibonacci retracement. Stochastics depicts an overbought situation, further supporting our bearish bias.

On the H4 timeframe, price has retraced upwards. We foresee an upward rising trend towards our graphical high 1st resistance at 0.71567. Alternatively, if price breaks through below the Ichimoku clouds, it can swing towards our 1st support at 0.70321, in-line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci extension. Indicators are showing potential for further upside.

Otherwise, if price breaks 1st resistance, it can potentially swing towards our 2nd resistance at 0.72078, in-line with -27.2% Fibonacci extension.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, support level at 70321
  • H4 time frame, resistance level at 71567

USD/CAD:

On the Weekly timeframe, price tested and reacted below long term moving average and also both 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.29882. As long as the price is holding below this level, we could potentially see the price facing further bearish pressure in the long term. On the Daily, price bounced higher and is holding between 1st resistance at 1.27620 and 1st support at 1.24934. With price holding above moving average, we see limited upside where buyers may look to push price towards 1st resistance.

On the H4, price is still trading sideways between 1st support at 1.25826 and 1st resistance at 1.27620. With no good levels for entry and indicators giving mixed signals, we prefer to remain neutral for now, watching resistance at 1.27620 and support at 1.25826

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, resistance at 1.27620
  • H$ time frame, support at 1.25826

OIL:

On Weekly timeframe, we can see price is above the ascending trendline support and may bullish to 1st resistance at 86.59 in line with 127.2% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci extension. However, if price breaks below the ascending trendline line support, price may brearish towards the 1st support at 64.46  in line with 23.6% fibonacci retracement and 100% fibonacci extension.

On the Daily timeframe, price is above the 1st support at 67.46 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 50% fibonacci extension and price may bullish  towards 1st resistance at 76.24 in line with horizontal swing high and 127.2% fibonacci extension. Our bullish view is further supported by how MACD is shown to be holding above the 0 line. Otherwise price may bearish towards the 1st support at 67.46 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 50% fibonacci extension.

Lastly, on the H4 timeframe, price is above ascending trendline support and 1st support at 70.86 in line 23.6% fibonacci retracement and 50% Fibonacci extension and may potentially bullish towards the 1st resistance at 76.24 in line with horizontal swing high and 61.8% Fibonacci extension. Our bullish view is further supported by how MACD is shown to be holding above the 0 line. Otherwise price may bearish towards the 2nd support at 67.46 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, 1st resistance of 76.24
  • H4 time frame, 1st support of 70.86

Dow Jones Industrial Average:

On the Weekly, price continues to hold between 1st support at 33270 and 1st resistance at 37770. With price holding above moving average, we still see possible bullish pressure. However with no good levels for entry, we prefer to remain neutral for now.

On the Daily chart, price drifted lower below 1st resistance at 35600. With stochastics reacting below resistance where price pulled lower in the past, it is possible to see some selling pressure push price lower towards 1st support at 33270. Otherwise, breaking above 1st resistance will see price swing higher towards 2nd resistance at 37770.

On the H4, price bounced overnight above 1st support at 34505. We see a possible medium probability bullish scenario where buyers may enter and push price higher towards 1st resistance at 35199. Also, stochastics is testing short term support where price bounced in the past. Otherwise, breaking below 1st support will see price drop lower towards 2nd support at 34148.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 timeframe 1st support 34505

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