Friday 30th July 2021: Technical Outlook and Review

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EUR/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart we can see that price bounced from support at 1.17650, in-line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension. Price could potentially swing towards resistance at 1.19580, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, 20EMA and 50MA. On the daily chart, prices broke above resistance at 1.18780, in-line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension.

On the H4 timeframe, prices bounced towards previous horizontal overlap resistance at 1.18900, in-line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, 161.8% Fibonacci extension. We expect the price to face bearish pressure and pull back to support at 1.18380, in-line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, 61.8% Fibonacci extension and 20EMA. Both Stochastic and RSI are also overbought, also indicating a possible pullback.  The next support will be at 1.18045, in-line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 127.2% Fibonacci extension.

If the price bounces from here, it will swing towards resistance at 1.19205, in-line with -27.2% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension. The next resistance will be at 1.19659, in-line with -61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 200% Fibonacci extension.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, support level at 1.18380 and 1.18045
  • H4 time frame, resistance level at 1.19205 and 1.19659

GBP/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart, prices bounced from support at 1.35900, in-line with -27.2% Fibonacci retracement, 127.2% Fibonacci extension and 50MA. Price could potentially bounce back to retest resistance at 1.41052, in-line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and ascending trendline support-turned-resistance. On the daily time frame price bounced above 50MA and swung towards resistance at 1.39900, in-line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. We expect the price to pull back to support at 1.38820, in-line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Stochastic is also at resistance level where previous drops occurred. If price continues to bounce, it will find resistance at 1.40289, in-line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.

On the H4 timeframe, prices swung towards resistance at 1.39793, in-line with -27.2% Fibonacci retracement, 78.6% Fibonacci extension and psychological resistance. We expect the price to drop to first support at 1.38851,  in-line with 23.6%, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and pullback support. Both RSI and Stochastic are also at overbought area indicating a potential for a pullback. The next support will be at 1.37769, in-line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 161.8% Fibonacci extension.

If prices bounces above 1.40127, it will swing towards resistance at 1.40901, in-line with -61.8% and 100% Fibonacci retracement.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, 38851 and 1.37769 support level
  • H4 time frame, 1.40127 and 1.40901 resistance level

AUD/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart, price has broken beneath the 0.74177 support-turned-resistance level in line with 61.8% fibonacci retracement, where we may see a retest in this area before price pushes down further. This is supported by price trending under the moving average. On the Daily timeframe, we are seeing a similar picture with further confirmation as price is trending under the descending trendline and Weekly resistance area in line with 127.2% and 23.6% fibonacci retracement level.

On the H4 timeframe, we see price within the area of resistance from Daily and Weekly timeframe where we may wait for a breakout from either side to confirm our bias.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame shows market consolidation
  • Daily and Weekly showin bearish momentum.

USD/JPY

From the weekly timeframe, prices are pushing up towards the horizontal swing high resistance of 112.322, in line with 127.2% Fibonacci Retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci Extension, where we might see a breakout from this level. In the case that price pushes up, prices may face resistance at horizontal swing high resistance of 114.565, in line with 78.6% Fibonacci extension and 127.2% Fibonacci retracement. On the daily timeframe, prices have broken the ascending trendline support, and resisted the 110.648 level, which is in line with 61.8% Fibonacci extension. Prices might push down towards 109.064, in line with 100% Fibonacci extension.

On the H4 timeframe, prices have bounced above the horizontal swing low support of 109.486, in line with 127.2% Fibonacci retracement. Prices are likely to rally towards horizontal swing high resistance of 110.287. Prices may reverse to horizontal swing low support, in line with 127.2% Fibonacci extension. Moreover, stochastic is approaching hidden support.

Areas of consideration:

  • 486 resistance level on the H4 timeframe
  • 287 resistance level on the H4 timeframe

 

USD/CAD:

On the Weekly timeframe, price is holding below long term moving average and also 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.29950. As long as the price is holding below this level, we see price facing further bearish pressure in the long term. On the Daily, price is approaching graphical overlap support at 1.25013. With price  breaking beneath previous support, now resistance and approaching the daily moving average, we may see a further push down towards 1.23 major level.

On the H4 we saw the failure to hold above daily support and price dropped further towards next support at 1.24400. From here, we may see a pullback towards 1.25013 before further drop towards the next support at 1.23194

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 stochastic bouncing off support

USD/CHF:

USD/CHF has shown a strong bounce from the weekly 0.89146  support, in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, and price is now holding below the descending trendline resistance. The daily chart shows that price is now reversing below the key daily resistance of 0.92735. We could potentially see further downside towards the 0.90462 support.

On the H4 chart, price is currently testing the support at  0.90496 which is in line with the horizontal overlap support,100% FIbonacci extension and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. We can expect price to bounce up and resist off the 0.91176 which is in line with the horizontal pullback support. 61.8% Fibonacci extension and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Our bullish bias is  strengthened by how the stochastics is shown to be approaching a hidden support at 3.39.

Areas of consideration:

  • Price could close slightly before 0.91176.
  • Price could break the support at 0.90496 and push down further to take support at 0.89734.

Dow Jones Industrial Average:

On the weekly chart, price is trading sideways holding between 32765 support and 37525 resistance. With price holding above long term moving average, we see price facing further bullish pressure. On the daily chart, price is currently trading sideways and holding below resistance at 35090. With stochastic still holding below resistance where price dropped in the past, we see price facing possible bearish pressure.

On the H4, the picture remains the same as price drifted higher but still holding around daily resistance at 35090 level. Bearish divergence still remains valid on RSI indicator. We still see a low probability scenario where sellers might add to their shorts to push price lower towards 33741 support. Otherwise failure to hold below 35090 resistance should see price swing the other way towards 35585 resistance instead.

Areas of consideration:

  • 35090 daily resistance is key level to watch
  • Bearish divergence on H4

 

XAU/USD (GOLD):

On the weekly timeframe, price tested and bounced above key trendline pullback support at 1764. On the daily, price is now trading sideways, holding between 1855 resistance and 1764 weekly support. With no clear levels for entry that provides a good risk to reward ratio, we prefer to keep a neutral stance for now. Breaking above resistance at 1855 will see price push higher towards 1916 resistance. Otherwise, a break below 1764 support will see price drop lower towards 1677 support instead.

On the H4, price pushed higher and is now reacting below previous graphical swing high resistance at 1833. With stochastic testing resistance where price dropped lower in the past, we see a medium probability scenario where price may drop towards 1812 support on further bearish pressure. Otherwise, failure to hold below 1833 resistance will see price push higher towards 1855 resistance next.

Areas of consideration:

  • 1833 H4 resistance level is key level to watch

 

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