Friday 25th June 2021: Technical Outlook and Review

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EUR/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart we can see that price has bounced back and is currently re-testing the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and ascending trendline support-turned-resistance. There would be limited upside from this level before bearish pressure resumes. On the daily chart, prices are facing potential bearish pressure from the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement where we could possibly see a low-probability case the price coming back to retest 1.18244, in-line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension.

On the H4 timeframe, prices broke the short-term ascending trendline and is consolidating sideways from previous resistance at 1.19800, in-line with 78.6%, -27.2% Fibonacci retracement. We are seeing a low-probability scenario where the prices face bearish pressure and retest first support level at 1.18940, in-line with 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. The next level of support will be at 1.18600, in-line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension.

If the prices bounce from current level, it will swing towards our first resistance at 1.19915, in-line with 50% Fibonacci retracement, 78.6% Fibonacci extension and 200MA on the daily. The next level of resistance will be at 1.20130, in-line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 161.8% Fibonacci extension.

If price faces bearish pressure from current level, it would come back to retest support at 1.18940, in-line with 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. The next level of support will be at 1.18600, in-line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, support level at 1.18940 and 1.18600
  • H4 time frame, resistance level at 1.19915 and 1.20130

GBP/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart, we can see that prices have bounced back above 20EMA and are facing some bearish pressure at the ascending trendline support-turned-resistance. On the daily time frame, prices are facing some bearish pressure at 1.39619, in-line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement where we could possibly see a bearish pressure to retest 1.36780, in-line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension.

On the H4 timeframe, prices came back to retest support level at 1.39000, in-line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 127.2% Fibonacci extension. We are seeing a low-probability scenario where the prices face bearish pressure and retest first support level at 1.38595, in-line with -27.2% Fibonacci retracement and 161.8% Fibonacci extension. The next level of support will be at 1.38120, in-line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension.

If the prices bounce from current level, the first resistance level will be at 1.40115, in-line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension and daily resistance. The next resistance level will be at 1.40699, in-line with -61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 127.2% Fibonacci extension.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, 38595 and 1.38120 support level
  • H4 time frame, 1.40115 and 1.40699 resistance level

AUD/USD:

From the Weekly timeframe, we see price under 0.76073, in line with previous swing low, where we may see a continuation of push down towards 0.74063, in line with 61.8% fibonacci retracement, 100% fibonacci extension and horizontal graphical overlap. From the daily timeframe, we see a similar action where price is pushing down towards the 0.74362 level, in line with Weekly support, -27% and 127% fibonacci retracement.

On the H4 timeframe, we see price reversing on the major level of 0.7600 in line with Weekly and Daily resistance, 78.6% fibonacci retracement, 100% fibonacci extension and descending trendline resistance, we may expect price to drop to 0.74362, in line with Weekly and Daily resistance and -27% fibonacci retracement.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 timeframe showing reversal at 0.7600 towards 0.74362
  • Daily and weekly time frames showing bearish pressure.

USD/JPY

From the weekly timeframe, prices are bullish and are pushing up towards  facing resistance from horizontal swing high resistance level 114.465 which coincides with 127.2% Fibonacci retracement. On the daily time frame, prices are holding nicely above the 21 period EMA. Prices have broken through the previous resistance level of 110.978 and are now pushing up towards the weekly level of 114.665,in line with 100% Fibonacci extension. A pullback from that level could mean prices would take support on 108.425 level.

On the H4 timeframe, prices are showing the same picture. Prices have broken through the previous swing high which is daily/weekly resistance level of 110.978. Next short term target is 112.148 level in line with 161.8% Fibonacci extension before the 114.665 level on the daily and weekly timeframe. 34 Period EMA is also below prices, showing a bullish pressure for prices.

Areas of consideration:

  • 148 resistance level on the H4 timeframe might be next upside target
  • 786 support level on the H4 timeframe

 

USD/CAD:

From the Weekly timeframe, we saw a break above the longer term descending trendline resistance turned support drawn from 23rd March 2020, and is currently returning to test it as support. We may see a bounce from here. On the daily timeframe, we are seeing a similar move, where price is currently testing the 1.22730 level, in line with weekly support and 50% fibonacci retracement.
The H4 timeframe shows a clearing view on the reversal point in line with 61.8% fibonacci retracement, Weekly and Daily support. From here we may see a push up towards major level 1.2500, in line with Daily resistance.

Areas of consideration:

  • The weekly and daily time frame shows the price reversing from the key resistance area.
  • On H4, price may bounce towards 1.2500

USD/CHF:

USD/CHF has shown a strong bounce from the weekly 0.89500 support, in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension. The daily chart shows that price is now testing the key daily 0.92300 support-turned-resistance and ascending trendline support-turned-resistance. We could potentially see further downside below the 0.92300 resistance.

On the H4 chart, we can see that price has shown a reversal at  the 0.92300 resistance level, in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, and is now moving sideways in the market. We note that RSI has also broken below the ascending trendline support-turned-resistance. In this scenario, we could see price face further downside towards 0.90500 support, in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, 161.8% Fibonacci extension and horizontal pullback resistance. However, should price break and close above the 0.92300 resistance, we could see price push higher to test the subsequent weekly resistances.

Areas of consideration:

  • The 0.92300 resistance is a key intraday level to watch.
  • We could see price drop towards the next 0.90500 support level.

Dow Jones Industrial Average:

On the weekly chart, prices traded lower, spooked by inflation fears and the Federal Reserve looking to raise interest rates as early as 2023. With price approaching 32765 support, we might see bullish pressure above this level. On the daily chart, price bounced above the weekly support at 32765 and is currently holding between resistance at 15090 and support at 32765. With stochastic still reacting above support, we see price facing further bullish pressure.

On the H4, price bounced higher approaching near term resistance at 34472. With stochastic testing resistance where price pulled back in the past, we see a possibility where sellers may add to their shorts on pullbacks with a downside target at 33475 support. Otherwise, failure to hold below 34472 should see the price swing the other way towards daily resistance at 35090.

Areas of consideration:

  • Weekly key level at 32765 support is of key interest
  • 34472 near term resistance on H4

XAU/USD (GOLD):

On the weekly timeframe, pulled back lower and is testing key trendline pullback support at 1764. On the daily, price tested and reacted above 1764 weekly support. While 1764 support looks fragile, as long as we do not have a daily close below this support, we may see price bounce towards 1855 resistance. Otherwise, breaking below 1764 support, price could drop lower towards 1677 support next.

On the H4, price drifted lower and is coming close to 1764 support. We see a low probability bullish scenario where buyers could add to their longs above 1764 weekly support with a possible upside target at 1808 resistance. Otherwise, failure to hold above 1764 weekly support will see price drop much lower towards next support at 1724. Stochastic is reacting above support where price bounced in the past.

Areas of consideration:

  • 1764 support is the key level to watch.
  • 1808 resistance on H4 to watch.

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