Markets were again volatile last week; however, maybe less so than the excessive volatility that we had seen in previous weeks. US data was in focus, with a stronger-than-expected jobs release competing with a slightly weaker-than-expected inflation number to move Fed expectations.
While geopolitics remains firmly in traders’ minds, we did see some of the major concerns pull back over the course of the week; however, markets remain vigilant moving into the fresh week.
The week again promises to be another potentially lively one, with a very good mix of data releases scheduled across major economic jurisdictions, while liquidity may be lower, especially in the Asian time zone, with many centres closed for the Lunar New Year.
Here is our usual day-by-day breakdown of the major risk events this week:
A quiet start to the calendar week on Monday, with many Asian centres closed early in the day and both the US and Canadian markets off later in the day.
The Asian session has little on the calendar; however, the major data releases for the week kick off later in the day, with UK employment data due out in the London session and Canadian CPI numbers scheduled in the New York session alongside the US Empire State Manufacturing Index update.
The Asian session will see a strong focus on antipodean markets, with Australian Wage Price data due out just before we hear the latest rate call from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. The London session sees more UK data, this time in the form of CPI numbers, while the New York session has Durable Goods numbers due out before the key FOMC Meeting Minutes release towards the end of the day.
Australian markets are again in focus on Thursday, with employment data due out early in the Asian session. The London session has little to move the dial, but there will be an additional focus on the US weekly unemployment claims number later in the day after it increased last week. The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index numbers are also due out, and we hear from Fed members Bowman and Kashkari.
Friday sees Flash Services and Manufacturing data due out across a raft of economies, including Australia, the UK, the EU, France, Germany, and the US. The Asian session will see an early focus on Kiwi markets again, with RBNZ Governor Anna Breman speaking, while we also have UK Retail Sales data out later in the day. There is further key data out of the US in the New York session, with the GDP and Core PCE Price Index numbers both out, before New Home Sales numbers are released and we hear from Fed members Logan and Bostic.
