Markets were again chaotic last week, with commodities once again proving incredibly volatile alongside cryptocurrencies, as they saw big percentage moves on a daily basis. In addition to the overall volatility, we missed some US data due to a mini US government shutdown and saw a rate hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia, and holds from both the Bank of England and the European Central Bank.
Traders are expecting more moves across financial markets this week, although hopefully with some reduction in volatility. Geopolitics will likely continue to feature heavily, starting off with the impact of Japanese government election results on Monday morning. US markets will remain firmly in focus, particularly in relation to Federal Reserve expectations. Attention will centre on the delayed Non-Farm Payrolls report, now scheduled for release midweek, followed by CPI data on Friday — both of which could play a significant role in shaping rate outlooks.
Here is our usual day-by-day breakdown of the major risk events this week:
It is a quiet start to the week on the macroeconomic calendar, with little of note scheduled during all three trading sessions. However, traders are expecting a lively start to the day, with Japanese election results likely to see some strong moves in the yen on the Asian open.
There is little scheduled in the first two sessions of the day, but we have the first of several key US tier 1 data updates out shortly after the New York open, with Retail Sales and Employment Cost Index data due out.
Potentially the busiest day of the week in terms of the event calendar. The Asian session will see a big focus on Chinese markets, with key CPI and PPI numbers due out midway through the session. However, the major focus for the day will be on US markets early in the New York session, when the delayed Non-Farm Payroll data set is released, followed by the weekly crude oil inventory figures later in the day.
There is little on the cards in the Asian session, but the European day will see an early focus on UK markets, with a big data drop due, including GDP and industrial production numbers. The New York session sees the release of the weekly unemployment claims numbers.
Inflation data is in focus for the final day of the trading week. Again, there is little scheduled for the Asian session, but Swiss markets will be in focus on the London open, with the key CPI numbers due out. The New York session sees US CPI data released early in the day, which should keep markets lively through the close of the day and, indeed, the week.
