Wednesday 08th September 2021: Technical Outlook and Review

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DXY:

Looking at the Weekly chart price may bearish towards the 1st support at 90.346 in line with 76.4% Fibonacci retracement and 76.4% Fibonacci extension. Our bearish bias is further supported by how stochastic testing resistance where price dropped in the past. Otherwise, price may be bullish towards the 1st resistance at 93.829 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension.

On the Daily timeframe, Price may bearish from 1st resistance at 92.788 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement  and 23.6% Fibonacci extension towards the 1st support at 91.262 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 50% Fibonacci extension. Our bearish bias is further supported by price is below the EMA. Otherwise, price may bullish towards the 2nd resistance at 93.829 in line with Horizontal swing high and 50% Fibonacci extension.

On the H4 timeframe, price is may bearish towards the 1st support at 91.262 in line with 127.2% Fibonacci retracement and 161.8% Fibonacci extension. Our bearish bias is further supported by how stochastic testing resistance where price dropped in the past. Otherwise, price may bullish towards the 2nd resistance at 93.181 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci extension.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, 2nd resistance of 93.181
  • H4 time frame, 1st support of 91.262

XAU/USD (GOLD):

On the weekly timeframe, price has dipped towards 1st support at 1726.18. Long term buyers could possibly add to their positions here and as price push higher towards graphical resistance at 1856.85 level. Otherwise, a break above our first resistance will see price push higher towards our 2nd resistance at 1916.62.

On the Daily chart, price has experienced a pullback recently towards our 1st support at 1797.93 with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. We see a medium possibility of bullish scenario where prices might rise closer to our 1st resistance at 1833.95. MacD is showing a potential reversal of trends. Otherwise, breaking 1st support at 1797.93 Fibonacci 61.8% retracement will see price push towards 2nd support at 1729.71 Fibonacci retracement.

On the H4 chart, price has experienced a major dip and recently bounced off 1st support at 1792.17. In the short term, we see a likelihood of prices climbing higher towards our 1st resistance at 1833.84. Technical indicators are signalling a continuation of upward trend. Otherwise breaking the 1st support might see prices dipping towards our 2nd support level at 1781.59, -27.2%  Fibonacci retracement.

Areas of consideration:

  • 4h 1st support at 1792.17
  • 4h 2nd support at 1781.59

EUR/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart we can see that the price swung towards previous resistance at 1.18940, in-line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. It could potentially swing towards first resistance at 1.19640, in-line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci extension. On the Daily chart, price faced bearish pressure from resistance at 1.19090 and pull-back, in-line with 100% Fibonacci retracement and 161.8% Fibonacci extension. We could potentially see the price pull-back to first support at 1.18445, in-line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.

On the H4 timeframe prices broke down from the ascending trendline and previous support at 1.18510, in-line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement , 61.8% Fibonacci extension and 20EMA. We could potentially see the price drop to first support at 1.18155, in-line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci extension. The next potential support could be at 1.17865, in-line with 50% Fibonacci retracement, 78.6% Fibonacci extension and 200MA.

If the price bounces higher, it could potentially swing towards first resistance at 1.19000, in-line with 100% Fibonacci retracement and 161.8% Fibonacci extension. The next potential resistance could be at 1.19425, in-line with -61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 200% Fibonacci extension.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, support level at 1.18155 and 1.17865
  • H4 time frame, resistance level at 1.19000 and 1.19425

 

USD/CHF:

On the weekly, price is holding above ascending trendline support and also between 1st resistance at 0.95124 and 1st support at 0.90391. Traders should watch these levels closely for a break to see prices swing higher or drop lower. On the Daily, the price did not reach a graphical swing high. It is seen to have a bearish movement towards the 1st support at 0.90391. With stochastics testing resistance where price dropped in the past, we see a possibility that sellers could enter and push price towards the 1st support at 0.90391

On the H4, price is seen to be reacting in between 1st Resistance at 0.92676 and 1st Support at 0.90757 where we can see a triangle pattern formed, price has broken out of the triangle pattern on the upside and hence, shows a strong bullish momentum. Our bullish bias is further supported by the MACD indicator where the MACD line crosses above the signal line.

Areas of consideration:

  • Watch 1st resistance at 0.92676
  • Watch 1st support at 0.90757

GBP/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart, price rebounded from support at 1.35800, in-line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, 78.6% Fibonacci extension and 50MA.  On the Daily time frame, price pulled back to the previous breakout trendline where it could potentially swing towards first resistance at 1.39870, in-line with 100% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension.

On the H4 timeframe, prices pulled-back to previous support at 1.37780, in-line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement , 100% Fibonacci extension and 50MA. Price broke below the ascending trendline where we could potentially see the price drop further to first support at 1.37210, in-line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci extension. The next potential support could be at 1.36640, in-line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension.

If price bounces higher, it could potentially swing towards first resistance at 1.39020, in-line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 127.2% Fibonacci extension. The next potential resistance could be at 1.39485,  in-line with -61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 161.8% Fibonacci extension.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, 37780 and 1.37155 support level
  • H4 time frame, 1.39020 and 1.39485 resistance level

 

USD/JPY

From the weekly timeframe, price is below the descending trendline resistance, and may bearish to 1st support 107.480 in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 38.2% Fibonacci extension. Otherwise, price might move towards the 1st resistance at 111.660  in line with Horizontal Swing High and 50% Fibonacci extension.

On the Daily timeframe, price is below the descending trendline resistance and may bearish to 1st support at 108.559 in line with Horizontal Swing Low and  127.2% Fibonacci extension. Otherwise, price might move towards the 1st resistance at 110.802 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 50% Fibonacci extension.

On the H4  timeframe,  price is below the descending threadline resistance and may bearish to the 1st support at 109.483 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 38.2% Fibonacci extension. Our bearish view is further supported by how Stocastic is testing resistance where price dropped in the past. Otherwise, price may bullish towards the 2nd resistance at 110.802 in line with Horizontal swing high and 76.4% Fibonacci extension.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, 2nd resistance of 110.802
  • H4 time frame, 1nd support of 109.483

AUD/USD:

On the weekly, price is holding above the MA 100 showing bullish momentum, price is expected to put towards the first resistance in line with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. Our bullish bias is further supported by the Stochastic indicator, where the K% line bounced off the support level. On the Daily, the price is holding below EMA 34 showing a potential bearish momentum, however price bounced off from the first support towards the first resistance 0.75296 in line with the 100.0% Fibonacci extension and 50.0% Fibonacci retracement. Our potential short term bullish bias is further supported with the MACD indicator where the MACD line crosses above the signal line.

On the H4, price is seen to have broken off the descending trendline resistance turned support and price is holding above the 200 Period MA and 50 period MA where a golden cross is formed. Price is expected to push to the new 1st Resistance level in line with 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement. Our short term bullish bias is further supported by the Ichimoku indicator where price is holding above it.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 1st resistance level 0.75296
  • H4 1st support level 0.71677

NZD/USD:

On the weekly, price has recently bounced off 1st resistance at 0.71770, in-line with 50% Fibonacci retracement, 100% Fibonacci extension, and descending trendline and is dipping towards the 1st support at 0.68000. Swing traders may potentially enter with shorts as we see potentially a bearish momentum in alignment with the descending trendline. Technical indicator is indicating a recent reversal and a bearish continuation of trend.

On the Daily chart, price has recently pulled-back to first support at 0.710840, in-line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. We foresee potentially a short rise in price towards our trendline before further downside. Technical indicators are showing a continuation of trend.

On the H4 timeframe, prices have experienced a pullback and tested our 1st support at 0.70580, in-line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension. Indicators are showing possible short term trend reversal.

Alternatively, if price breaks 1st support, it can potentially swing towards our 2nd support at 0.70321, in-line with 38.2% and 127.2.8% Fibonacci retracement.

 

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, support level at 0.70855 and 70321
  • H4 time frame, resistance level at 71958 and 0.72578

USD/CAD:

On the Weekly timeframe, price tested and reacted below long term moving average and also both 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.29882. As long as the price is holding below this level, we could potentially see the price facing further bearish pressure in the long term. On the Daily, price bounced back above the ascending trendline support. With price also holding above the moving average, further possible upside towards 1st resistance at 1.26954 could be possible. Otherwise, price may pullback and come back to test 1st support at 1.24321.

On the H4, prices swing towards previous resistance at 1.26565, in-line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Price could potentially swing towards 1st resistance at 1.27065, in-line with 100% Fibonacci retracement and 161.8% Fibonacci extension. The next potential resistance could be at 1.27490, in-line with 127.2% Fibonacci retracement and 200% Fibonacci extension.

If price drops, we could potentially see it come back to retest strong support at 1.24894. If price breaks below 1st support we could see a further drop towards 2nd support at 1.24321.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, resistance at 1.27065 and 1.27490
  • H4 time frame, support at 1.24894 and 1.24321

 

OIL:

On Weekly timeframe, we can see price is above the ascending trendline support and may bullish to 1st resistance at 86.59 in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 127.2% Fibonacci extension. However, if price breaks below the ascending trendline line support, price may brearish towards the 1st support at 64.46  in line with 23.6% fibonacci retracement and 23.6% fibonacci extension.

On the Daily timeframe, price is above the 1st support at 67.46 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 50% fibonacci extension and price may bullish  towards 1st resistance at 76.24 in line with horizontal swing high and 127.2% fibonacci extension. Our bullish view is further supported by how price is holding above the EMA. Otherwise price may bearish towards the 1st support at 67.46 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 50% fibonacci extension.

Lastly, on the H4 timeframe, price is above the 1st support at 70.4 in line 38.2% fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci extension and may potentially bullish towards the 1st resistance at 76.24 in line with horizontal swing high and 61.8% Fibonacci extension. Our bullish view is further supported by how Stocastic is testing support where price bounced in the past. Otherwise price may bearish towards the 2nd support at 67.46 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, 1st resistance of 76.24
  • H4 time frame, 2nd support of 67.46

Dow Jones Industrial Average:

On the weekly chart, price is experiencing a short pull-back between 33270 support and 38119.37 resistance. With price holding above long term moving average, we see a possibility of price facing further bullish pressure.

On the Daily chart, price is moving sideways between 36021.85 resistance and 33270.00 support. With indicators giving us mixed signals, we prefer to remain neutral for now.

On the H4, price has experienced a minor pullback towards 1st support at 34494.34 in-line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.  We still see a low probability bearish scenario where sellers may further add to their shorts to push price lower towards our 1st support. Otherwise a break above our 1st resistance will see the price swing higher towards the next resistance at 36693.63. Stochastic is showing potential for further downside.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 timeframe 1st support 34494.34
  • H4 timeframe 1st resistance 36021.00

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