Thursday 22nd July 2021: Technical Outlook and Review

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EUR/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart we can see that prices are facing bearish pressure below 20EMA and 50MA, where we are expecting the price to swing towards support at 1.16200, in-line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, 100% Fibonacci extension and 200MA . On the daily chart, prices are facing bearish pressure and we could potentially see it drop to 1.17270, in-line with -27.2% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension.

On the H4 timeframe, prices bounced and faced bearish pressure at 1.18015, in-line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, 61.8% Fibonacci extension and descending trendline resistance. Price is currently in a wedge pattern where we are monitoring to see whether it could break out of the upper trendline. RSI is also indicating a negative divergence bullish reversal for further upside. If prices broke above the upper wedge trendline, it will swing towards first resistance at 1.18295, in-line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension. The next resistance will be at 1.18540, in-line with 100% Fibonacci retracement and 127.2% Fibonacci extension.

If the price drops from this level, it would swing towards first support at 1.17425, in-line with 127.2% Fibonacci retracement, 100% Fibonacci extension and descending wedge trendline support. The next support will be at 1.17125, in-line with -27.2% Fibonacci retracement and 127.2% Fibonacci extension. Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, support level at 1.17425 and 1.17125
  • H4 time frame, resistance level at 1.18294 and 1.18540

GBP/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart, prices broke previous support at 1.36780 and is now coming into major support at 1.35223, in-line with -27.2% Fibonacci retracement, 127.2% Fibonacci extension and 50MA. On the daily time frame, prices rebound back to previous support-turned-resistance level at 1.37145, in-line with 61.8%, 100% Fibonacci extension and 200MA. We expect the price to face bearish pressure at this level to further downside.

On the H4 timeframe, prices bounced above resistance level at 1.36968, in-line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci extension. As the price is into daily resistance level, we expect the price to pull back to retest breakout support at 1.36660, in-line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci extension. The next support level will be at 1.35736, in-line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 127.2% Fibonacci extension.

If price bounces, it will swing towards resistance at 1.37354, in-line with -27.2% Fibonacci retracement, 50% Fibonacci extension and previous price broke down level. The next resistance will be at 1.38170, in-line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 161.8% Fibonacci extension.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, 36660 and 1.35736 support level
  • H4 time frame, 1.37354 and 1.38170 resistance level

AUD/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart, we can see that the price broke beneath the support level of 0.74177, in line with 61.8% fibonacci retracement and 100% fibonacci extension. We may see a push down towards 0.72051, in line with 100% fibonacci extension and 78.6% fibonacci retracement.  On the daily time frame, we are seeing a similar picture where price may continue pushing further lower.

Lastly, on the H4 timeframe, we are seeing a reversal from the 100% fibonacci extension support level, where price is pushing up towards the Weekly and Daily resistance for a retest, which is also in line with 61.8% fibonacci retracement at 0.73877, before pushing lower.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, price is showing reversal towards 0.73877
  • Weekly and Daily time frame showing bearish momentum

USD/JPY

From the weekly timeframe, prices are pushing down towards the horizontal swing low support of 107.477, in line with 50% Fibonacci Retracement and 100% Fibonacci Extension, where we might see a bounce from this level. In the case that price pushes up, prices may face resistance at horizontal swing high resistance of 112.322, in line with 61.8% Fibonacci extension and 127.2% Fibonacci retracement. On the daily timeframe, prices have broken the ascending trendline support, and resisted the 110.699 level, which is in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 127.2% Fibonacci extension. Prices might push down towards 108.559, in line with 161.8% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension. A break above the 110.699 level may see prices push up towards the112.322 level.

On the H4 timeframe, prices are looking to reverse off the descending trendline resistance of 110.387, in line with 127.2% Fibonacci extension. Prices are expected to take support at the horizontal swing low support of 109.064, in line with the 100% Fibonacci extension. If prices push up, prices may face resistance from the 111.116 resistance, in line with 161.8% Fibonacci resistance. Moreover, the Stochastic is approaching the hidden resistance level at 95.47. below 0.

Areas of consideration:

  • 387 resistance level on the H4 timeframe
  • 064 support level on the H4

 

USD/CAD:

On the Weekly timeframe, price is currently trending above the moving average showing bullish momentum, however MACD is still holding under the 0-line. Price is currently holding between long term resistance at 1.28814 and long term support at 1.20068. On the Daily timeframe, we see that price showed a bearish reversal from the 127% fibonacci extension level near 1.28273 and is headed towards 1.25470 support level. Lastly on the H4 timeframe, we see price bouncing from the Daily Resistance turned support level, where we may see a pull back towards 1.26339, in line with 38.2% fibonacci retracement level.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 shows short-term bullish pullback towards 1.26339.
  • Weekly and Daily time frame shows bullish momentum

 


USD/CHF:

USD/CHF has shown a strong bounce from the weekly 0.89146  support, in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, and price is now holding below the descending trendline resistance. The daily chart shows that price is now reversing below the key daily resistance of 0.92735. We could potentially see further downside towards the 0.90462 support.

On the H4 chart, we see that price tested and  resisted off the 1st resistance level at 0.92017 and did not manage to break through. Price is likely to take support at the 1st support level at 0.91176 which coincides with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension level, 127.2% Fibonacci retracement level as well as the graphical swinglow. Price is also holding below the EMA which further strengthens our bearish bias.

Areas of consideration:

  • Price could potentially continue to test the resistance a third time
  • We could see price drop towards the next 0.91176 support level.

Dow Jones Industrial Average:

On the weekly chart, price is trading sideways holding between 32765 support and 37525 resistance. With price holding above long term moving average, we see price facing further bullish pressure. On the daily chart, price is currently trading sideways and holding below resistance at 35090. With stochastic reacting below resistance where price dropped in the past, we see price facing possible bearish pressure.

On the H4, price pushed higher and is now approaching daily resistance at 35090 level. We also see bearish divergence forming between price and RSI indicator. We see a low probability scenario where sellers might add to their shorts to push price lower towards 33741 support. Otherwise failure to hold below 35090 resistance should see price swing the other way towards 35485 resistance instead.

Areas of consideration:

  • 35090 daily resistance is key level to watch

XAU/USD (GOLD):

On the weekly timeframe, price tested and bounced above key trendline pullback support at 1764. On the daily, price is now trading sideways, holding between 1855 resistance and 1764 weekly support. With no clear levels for entry that provides a good risk to reward ratio, we prefer to keep a neutral stance for now. Breaking above resistance at 1855 will see price push higher towards 1916 resistance. Otherwise, a break below 1764 support will see price drop lower towards 1677 support instead.

On the H4, price dropped lower and is holding above 1794 support. With stochastic testing support where price bounced in the past, we see a low probability bounce scenario where buyers may look to enter and push price towards recent swing high at 1835 resistance. Otherwise, failure to hold above 1794 support, will see price possibly drop towards next support at 1768 or even 1764 weekly support zone.

Areas of consideration:

  • 1794 H4 support level is the key level to watch.

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