Without doubt, the huge escalation of the conflict in the Middle East over the weekend will dominate market sentiment and moves for the first few days of the week at least, and possibly in the weeks ahead.
However, there is also plenty scheduled on the macroeconomic calendar in the coming days as well, which should see volatility remain high as we progress through the week. Markets were choppy again last week as sentiment swung on an almost daily basis, but concerns had risen in the final couple of days of trading, and the market closed on Friday on the back foot.
Traders are anticipating more moves in the days ahead, with Oil, Gold, USD, and other haven products likely to be in demand in the first few sessions of the week.
Here is our usual day-by-day breakdown of the major risk events this week:
Markets are expected to be very lively on the Asian open on Monday after the escalation in the Middle East over the weekend. There is little on the calendar over the first couple of sessions of the day; however, we do hear from ECB President Christine Lagarde during the European session, and there are Manufacturing PMI numbers due out of both the US and Canada during the New York session. However, expect geopolitical updates to dominate sentiment.
The Asian session kicks off with an early focus on Australian markets, with RBA Governor Michele Bullock due to speak in Sydney, while later in the day we have Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda set to speak at a Fintech Summit in Tokyo. The European session will have an initial focus on the continent, with the EU CPI data due out; however, attention will jump over the channel to the UK for the Annual Budget Release later in the session. There is no data of note scheduled in the New York session; however, we do hear from Fed members Williams and Kashkari during the day.
Australian markets will again be in focus early in the Asian session, this time with key GDP data due out. The London session will see the initial focus on Swiss markets, with CPI data due out before we hit the New York day and the first of three key US employment numbers out for the week in the form of the ADP Non-Farms update. This release is then followed by the US ISM Services PMI data and a scheduled speech from Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem.
Thursday is much quieter on the calendar, with little out to move the dial in the Asian and European sessions. The New York session sees the release of the Weekly Unemployment Claims data, and then towards the end of the session we have another update from ECB President Christine Lagarde when she speaks at an event in Italy.
It is Non-Farms day on Friday, and it looks set up for a classic Non-Farms trading day (although very much dependent on geopolitical updates), with little on the cards for the first two sessions of the day. Then we are hit with the key US employment numbers early in the New York session. The headline NFP number is released alongside the Average Hourly Earnings and Unemployment Rate as usual, and this week we also have US Retail Sales data joining the release, just to make things more interesting. Canadian Ivey PMI data is also due out later in the day, but expect the big US data and any geopolitical updates to dominate sentiment and moves into the weekend.
