It was the expected disjointed trading week last week due to the Thanksgiving Day holiday, and it was made even more disjointed by a major tech and liquidity failure on Friday. However, markets pushed higher across the majority of the sessions, and investor sentiment seems positive as we enter the last month of the year.
US data continues to return to the market in the days ahead, but investors will still have a bit of a wait until things return to normal. They would usually be expecting key US jobs numbers in the first week of the month, but they have been delayed due to the government shutdown. However, we do have some services, consumer sentiment, and manufacturing numbers out that will help to shape views on the economy.
Chinese PMI data over the weekend has come in largely on expectations, and geopolitical updates are unlikely to hit markets, and so traders are expecting a relatively quiet start to the trading week on the Monday open in Asia.
Here is our usual day-by-day breakdown of the major risk events this week:
It looks set for a relatively quiet start to the trading week on Monday with only a couple of major risk events scheduled on the calendar. The Asian session will see a strong focus on Japanese markets, with Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda speaking midway through the day. There is nothing of note due out in the London session, but we do have the first major US data of the week released in the New York session, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI and Manufacturing Prices numbers due out.
Tuesday kicks off with a strong central bank focus in the Asian session. Early in the day, we hear from the RBNZ’s new Governor Anna Breman on her first day when she speaks in Wellington before the Finance and Expenditure Committee, then Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks at an event at Stanford University midway through the session. The London session will see a focus on the EU, with key Flash CPI data due out, and we look set for a relatively quiet New York session with no major events scheduled.
Wednesday looks busy on the calendar, with tier-1 data due out in all three sessions. Australian markets will be in focus in the Asian session with GDP data due out early in the day. The London session sees the release of key Swiss CPI data and ECB President Christine Lagarde testifying before the European Parliament. The New York session sees the release of more key US data, with both the ADP Non-Farm Employment and ISM Services PMI numbers due out.
The first two sessions of the day look relatively quiet on Thursday; however, the New York session has a couple of key updates that could move markets. The weekly US unemployment claims numbers are due out early in the day before Canadian Ivey PMI data is released north of the border.
It’s a quiet first two sessions of the day again on Friday; however, the New York session promises to be another busy one to close out the week. We would normally be expecting the big US Non-Farms numbers at this time of the week; however, they have been delayed until December 16 due to the recent shutdown. We do have Canadian employment numbers due out, which should see some moves in the Loonie, and the rescheduled US Core PCE Price Index numbers will be released alongside the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations numbers.
