Investor concerns with regard to the state of the US economy are certainly starting to creep in, with US stocks experiencing their first down week in a month as the government shutdown reaches new records and the consequent data vacuum continues. This comes despite a relatively upbeat earnings season from major US companies.
The macroeconomic calendar looks considerably barer in the days ahead than it would normally, with US markets looking to less reliable secondary data updates for clues on the health of the economy.
It has (so far) been a relatively quiet weekend in terms of geopolitical surprises, and so most traders are expecting to see relatively smooth trading conditions to kick off the coming week.
Here is our usual day-by-day breakdown of the major risk events this week:
It should be a relatively quiet start to the week for traders, with very little of note on the calendar across all three sessions on Monday. Slightly stronger Chinese inflation numbers may see the Asian markets start on the front foot; however, most traders are expecting relatively calm conditions through the day.
The economic calendar does pick up on Tuesday with some key data due out, and holidays in key centres are likely to lead to lower liquidity. The Asian market will see an early focus on New Zealand, with key inflation expectations data due out, while the London session sees the release of crucial employment data out of the UK. Holidays in France, Canada, and the US should see liquidity levels much lower, especially towards the end of the day
Another quiet day in terms of data releases, with very little of note on the calendar to move markets. There is a plethora of Fed members due to speak in the New York session that should spice things up a bit later in the day, with members Williams, Paulson, Waller, Bostic, and Miran all scheduled to speak.
Australian markets will be in focus during the Asian session on Thursday as employment data is released midway through the Sydney day. UK markets are again in focus at the London open, with a big data drop scheduled, and GDP numbers likely to be the highlight. US CPI data would be planned for the New York session today, but with the ongoing government shutdown, we are unlikely to see that released this week. US Crude Oil Inventory data will be released during the session, and we also hear from the Fed’s Musalem and Hammack later in the day
Chinese markets will be in focus for the Asian session on Friday, with a large data drop midway through the day. Industrial Production, Retail Sales, and the Unemployment Rate figures are all due to be released. There is very little on the cards for the rest of the day; once again, key US numbers would normally be released—this time the PPI and Retail Sales data—however, the odds look slim at this point. We do, however, hear from more Fed members, with members Bostic, Schmid, and Logan all set to speak towards the end of the day.
