It was a relatively quiet trading day on Friday to close out last week’s financial markets action as traders took advantage of the US July 4th holiday to reassess recent moves. There will be a big focus on tariff updates this week, with President Trump’s July 9 deadline coming midweek.
On the macroeconomic calendar, we have a big focus on central banks, with both Antipodean Reserve Banks set to make interest rate calls, and the Fed meeting minutes are to be released. There are a few key data releases as well, although much fewer than the preceding week.
Here is our usual day-by-day breakdown of the major risk events this week:
It is set to be a quiet start to the week on Monday, with little in the way of data or central bank updates on the calendar across all three trading sessions. Investors are expecting to see some moves once New York opens after the long weekend as they catch up on the missed day; however, most expect relatively smooth trading conditions.
The Asian session will have a major focus on Australian markets, with the Reserve Bank of Australia firmly expected to hand out a 25-basis point rate cut shortly after lunch in Sydney. There is little on the calendar in the European session and just the Canadian Ivey PMI numbers due out in the New York day, although traders are expecting some volatility on tariff updates as deadline day approaches.
It looks like being a busy Asian session on Wednesday, with the initial focus on Chinese markets for the latest CPI and PPI numbers, before the focus sweeps back south for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s interest rate decision. The European session will see the release of the Bank of England’s latest meeting minutes; however, the Fed’s version later in the day is likely to have a greater market impact. It is deadline day for US tariffs, so traders are expecting plenty of volatility on the back of any fresh updates.
There is little scheduled on the cards in both the Asian and European sessions on Thursday, so smoother trading conditions are expected. The US day has just the usual weekly unemployment claims numbers due out, and we do hear from Fed members Musalem, Waller, and Daly across the session.
The Asian session again has little scheduled to move markets on the final day of the week; however, there are a couple of key data releases in the latter sessions. The focus will be on UK markets early in the European day with the latest GDP data due out, and the focus will be north of the border on the New York open with the Canadian employment data scheduled, which could see some big moves for the loonie.
