FX traders are bracing for a busy end to the week, with key US employment data due out in the final trading session. This month’s data has taken on even more importance than usual, as it comes at the end of one of the most volatile trading months the market has seen in years, and investors are keen to see the impact that President Trump’s tariff moves have had on the jobs sector. Market expectation is for the headline number to show an increase of 138k jobs in the last month, with both the Average Hourly Earnings numbers and the Unemployment Rate remaining stable at 0.3% m/m and 4.2%, respectively.
The Aussie dollar has held up well against the dollar over the last couple of weeks, while many of the other majors have fallen back, and it now presents a strong trading opportunity if the data comes out significantly off expectations. The Aussie has traded strongly around the 0.6400 level since it rallied higher in mid-April from the annual low, and tonight’s numbers could see it break out of recent ranges. A weaker print than expected could see a strong move higher if the pair breaks through resistance levels on the hourly chart under 0.6450, while a stronger print could see it drop back into recent ranges, with the topside move likely to present the stronger move as it hits fresh territory.
Resistance 2: 0.6449 – 2025 High
Resistance 1: 0.6439 – Trendline Resistance
Support 1: 0.6340 – 24 April Low
Support 2: 0.5912 – Trendline Support and 2025 Low
