The Kiwi dollar has largely remained under a low profile for the first weeks of the new trading year as some of the bigger major currencies have grabbed the limelight, however it will be squarely in focus on Wednesday when the Reserve Bank of New Zealand announces its latest interest rate decision. Along with its cross Tasman cousin, the Aussie, the Kiwi has had a strong run against the dollar for the majority of 2026, gaining nearly 7% from its low of 0.5710 to its recent high just under 61 cents.
The RBNZ is fully expected to keep rates on hold this week, however the market now expects the next move from bank to be a hike, albeit later in the year, rather than the cuts that had been priced in within the last couple of quarters so a lot will come down to the forward guidance that we get from Anna Breman and her team. Therefore, the Monetary Policy Statement, Rate Statement and the Press Conference are likely to be the updates that spark moves in the Kiwi.
Anything more hawkish than expected could see recent highs challenged swiftly in the NZDUSD and the currency break into a fresh topside range whereas a more cautious and slightly dovish outlook, which is how much of the market perceive Governor Breman could see it pull back down into recent ranges. The bigger risk probably sits with the topside move especially if stop losses are triggered, however traders are expecting volatility in the pair however the update comes through.
Resistance 2: 0.6120 – 2025 High
Resistance 1: 0.6092 – Trendline Resistance and 2026 High
Support 1: 0.5927 – February Low
Support 2: 0.5872 – 200 Day Moving Average
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