Thursday 18th February 2021: Technical Outlook and Review

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Looking at the weekly chart, we can see that prices are testing the support area of our ascending channel at 1.200, which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension. We could see a further upside to test our resistance area at 1.2300, in line with the graphical swing high resistance and 78.6% Fibonacci extension. On the daily time frame, prices are holding nicely above the ascending trend line and support area at 1.200 which can also be found on the weekly time frame.

On the H4 timeframe, prices are facing bearish pressure from our resistance at 1.2080, in line with our graphical pullback resistance area and 38.2% fibonacci retracement. We could see limited downside before price reaches our support area at 1.2000, in line with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and graphical levels found on the weekly and daily time frames.

Areas of consideration:

  • 2000 support area found on H4 time frame
  • 2080 resistance level found on H4 time frame


Looking at the weekly chart, we can see that prices are holding nicely above our ascending trend line and weekly support area at 1.3500 where we could see a further upside to the weekly resistance level at 1.4300, in line with the graphical swing high area and 78.6% Fibonacci extension. On the daily time frame, our support area at 1.3500 – 1.3600, which is also found on the weekly time frame, coincides with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.

On the H4 timeframe, prices could see a further downside before it reaches our support area at 1.3750, in line with our horizontal pullback support and 50% fibonacci retracement. A break below this level could provide the bearish acceleration to our next support target at 1.3600, in line with the horizontal swing low support area as well as the daily and weekly support level.

Areas of consideration:

  • 3950 resistance area found on H4 timeframe
  • 3750 support area found on H4 timeframe


From the Weekly timeframe, we can see that the price has pushed further towards the previous high at 0.78207, from the week of 4 January (2021), the price is still on the bullish trend-making higher points since March (2020). On the Daily timeframe, the price has successfully reversed from the Quasimodo resistance of 0.7784, in line with the previous high. On H4, we could see that AUDUSD showed a strong 32 pips bounce when it reached the major level of support at 0.7736, in line with 78.6%, 127%, and -27% Fibonacci retracement. On the H4 chart, we may see price making its way towards the major resistance zone between  0.7791 and 0.7810 consisting of the -61.8%, 161.8% retracement.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 bouncing from Support area of 0.7736, a bounce may occur to push prices back into resistance zone of 0.7791
  • Price could reverse and consolidate approaching the resistance zone between 0.7791 and 0.7810


The US dollar was flat on Wednesday,  where it tapped the 105.76 support and steadied there ( 61.8% fib extension and horizontal overlap support ). If price broke below the support level at 105.76 where the 61.8% fib extension and horizontal pullback support are , we could see sellers step in further and push price lower again towards the 105.00 support level.

Against the backdrop of the H4 timeframe, price broke out of the weekly declining wedge (106.94/104.18) and saw a slight pullback, before pushing up higher again. On the daily chart, we see that price is now pushing up to test the MA (200) again after making a slight pullback. This shows us room for bullish momentum upwards to test the resistance level at 106.060 level. However, before that on the H4 chart, we couldn’t ignore the support at 104.58 where the horizontal pullback support is.

Areas of consideration:

  • 06 resistance on the Daily timeframe is a possible upside target
  • 76 support level on H4 in line with the 61.8% fib extension and horizontal overlap support


Looking at the weekly chart, prices have respected the descending trendline drawn from 13 April (2020) high and is approaching the 2018 Yearly opening level at 1.2579. It is important to note that the long-term picture has pointed the direction down (trend) since March (2020). In the daily time frame, the price has made a pullback towards the descending trendline. And on the H4 timeframe, we are seeing price reversing after another touch with the  descending trendline at 1.2713, currently, the price sits right under the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, in line with January’s opening level as well as a major figure of 1.27. We may possibly see the continuation of the bearish trend after testing this zone.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 testing major resistance in line with 1.2713 , 78.6% retracement, and descending trendline resistance.
  • Weekly and Daily both showing bearish momentum in the longer-term picture, in line with a bearish view.


USD/CHF is seeing a stronger pullback to the upside as we see price approaching the weekly resistance level at 0.90500 level, in line with our 78.6% Fibonacci extension and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels. As price continues to hold below both the descending trendline and moving average resistances on the daily timeframe, it is possible that a reversal might occur at the 0.90500 level for a continuation of the bearish move down south.

Looking at  the H4 timeframe, we see that price managed to push up higher and is now approaching the weekly resistance level at 0.90500 and December’s opening level at 0.90820. We see a medium-probability bearish reversal below this level, where sellers could possibly enter with the weekly support level at 0.88450 as a potential downside target. Otherwise, failure to hold below this level may see price swing to test the trendline resistance and moving average on the weekly and daily timeframes.

Areas of consideration:

  • USD/CHF continues to show strong bearish pressure, as price holds below the trendline and moving average resistances .
  • 90500 level is an important resistance level to watch.
  • 88450 support level is a potential downside target for sellers.

Dow Jones Industrial Average:

On the weekly chart, price continues to hold above 31272 as markets made a new high. Traders can expect to see price pushing even higher towards the next resistance at 32643. Otherwise, failure to hold above 31272 could mean that this is a fake out and probably pull back towards 29341 support. With no change for the Daily, price continues to hold very strongly above ascending trendline support. Traders should be careful when deciding to trade any short term pullbacks as the bullish momentum on the longer term is very strong.

On the H4, price drifted higher, approaching 31773 resistance. Technical indicators continue to show room for further bullish upside. A break and close above 31773 will see more buyers entering with their longs to push price higher, possibly towards 33019. Otherwise, failure to hold above 31272 could see price swing back and come back to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and moving average support at 30521.

Areas of consideration:

  • 31773 key resistance to watch



On the weekly timeframe, gold is still holding above long term moving average support and is testing 1764 support, above which there could be a possibility of a bounce reaction. On the daily chart, with price now testing 1764 support, buyers could possibly consider this level and add to their longs while looking at 1875 resistance as a possible target. Otherwise, we could see price breaking below 1764 and pushing towards descending channel support at 1670..

On the 4H timeframe, price broke below support and is now holding between weekly support at 1764 and resistance at 1789. With short term technical indicators showing room for further bearish downside, 1789 resistance is the level where we may see sellers enter with their shorts to push price lower towards weekly support at 1764.

Areas of consideration:

  • Short term technical indicators show room for further bearish momentum

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