Thursday 15 April 2021: Technical Outlook and Review

IC Markets No Comments

EUR/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart, we can see that prices are facing bearish pressure from our resistance at 1.2000 where we could see a further drop below this level. On the daily time frame, it echoes the same bearish view as well where we could see a further drop before prices reach its support at 1.17100.

On the H4 timeframe, prices are approaching our resistance at 1.19800 where we could see a reversal below this level to our next support target at 1.18640.

Areas of consideration:

  • 20000 resistance area found on H4 time frame
  • 18771 support area found on H4 time frame

GBP/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart, we can see that prices are facing bearish pressure from our resistance at 1.43000 and could see a further downside before it reaches our support area at 1.31500. On the daily time frame, prices could see limited downside before approaching a key support level at 1.36500, in line with our graphical support level and 38.2% fibonacci retracement.

On the H4 timeframe, prices are approaching our resistance level at 1.38200 where we could see a reversal below this level to our support target at 1.36800.

Areas of consideration:

  • 38200 resistance area found on H4 time frame
  • 36800 support area found on H4 timeframe

AUD/USD:

From the Weekly timeframe, prices are holding nicely above the previous swing low of 0.75571 and are pushing upwards towards the 61.8% fibonacci retracement level at 0.78203. Prices are taking support from 0.75571 which is a horizontal pullback support and beneath it is the next support level of 0.74063  in line with -27%, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 161.8% Fibonacci extension.
On the daily time frame, price has reached the resistance at 0.77286 in line with -27%, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal graphical overlap. From here we may see a reaction pushing towards the 78.6% fibonacci level, or a push down from here. On the H4, price has managed to break past previous swing high resistance now turned-support. We are seeing a clearer break and retest of the level 0.77292, where we may potentially see a push towards the 0.77807 level in line with Daily resistance and 88.6% fibonacci extension.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 showing bullish momentum prices might push towards 0.77807
  • Daily time frame showing that prices tested and close beneath the resistance area
  • Weekly time frame show a bounce from previous swing low

USD/JPY

From the weekly timeframe, prices are facing resistance from horizontal swing high resistance which coincides with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension, taking support from 104.224 level which is in line with 78.6% FIbonacci retracement and 78.6% FIbonacci extension. On the daily time frame, prices are facing resistance from both the horizontal swing high resistance which coincides with 78.6% FIbonacci retracement as well as the 112.204 level. Prices broke through the 109.342 level and is pushing down to take support on ascending trendline support and horizontal pullback support in line with 161.8% FIbonacci extension and 50% Fibonacci retracement.

On the H4, prices are facing resistance from descending trendline resistance and horizontal swing high resistance in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement. Prices might push down to support level in line with horizontal swing low support which coincides with 161.8% Fibonacci retracement. EMA is also above prices, giving a bearish pressure for prices, in line with our analysis.

Areas of consideration:

  • On the H4, prices might push down to support level 108.347
  • Price facing resistance from 110.978 on weekly

USD/CAD:

The weekly chart shows bearish momentum and may push towards the previous swing low support at 1.23749, in line with -27% fibonacci retracement and 61.8% fibonacci extension. On the daily chart, we are seeing a similar move where price has pushed away from the descending trendline, in line with 61.8% fibonacci retracement, where we may see a push towards the 1.25 level, in line with -27% fibonacci retracement, now within touching distance.

On the H4, as expected, price has continued its push towards the level of 1.25063, in line with -27% fibonacci retracement, in line with previous swing low support. If the bearish momentum continues, we may see price finding support at 1.24740, in line with Daily support, 127% fibonacci retracement and 100% fibonacci extension.

Areas of consideration:

  • The weekly and daily time frame shows bearish momentum
  • On H4, price may break support at previous low, may push down towards Support level at 1.24740

USD/CHF:

USD/CHF has seen a reversal at the descending trendline resistance and is now holding below the weekly 0.95000 resistance level which is in line with our 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. The daily chart shows that price has broken below the key daily 0.92300 support-turned-resistance. We could potentially see further downside from here towards the next daily 0.89800 support level

On the H4 chart, we can see that price has made a clear break and close below the key daily 0.92300 support level, and is now pulling back to retest the support-turned-resistance area. We note that price is also holding below the Ichimoku cloud after breaking below the ascending trendline support. We could potentially see it reverse and swing further towards weekly 0.89800 support level, in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.

Areas of consideration:

  • Price broke below the daily 0.92300 support level
  • We could potentially see price reverse and swing towards the next 0.89800 weekly support.

Dow Jones Industrial Average:

On the weekly chart, price made a new all time high, pushing towards 34600 resistance. A weekly close below 34600 resistance could see a short term pullback and long term traders looking to short, may add to their shorts below 34600. On the Daily, we see price drifting higher, with technical indicators continue to show room for further bullish upside. Buyers could possibly look to add to their longs on any price pullbacks with possible target at 34600 weekly resistance. However this upside towards our weekly resistance seems limited.

On the H4, the Dow pulled back lower overnight. With technical indicators still showing room for further bullish momentum, we expect a medium probability scenario where 33350 support is the level buyers could possibly enter with their longs to push price towards 34600 weekly resistance as a possible target. Otherwise, failure to hold above 33350 should see price fall towards 32345.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 33350 support to hold for further rise in price
  • Long term indicators show room for further bullish upside

XAU/USD (GOLD):

On the weekly timeframe, gold is testing 1765 resistance.  With price still holding below the long term moving average, a weekly close below this resistance will see a medium probability drop towards 1670 support. On the daily chart, price is still testing and holding below 1765 weekly resistance. We see a possibility where sellers in the neighbourhood could come in and add to their shorts. Otherwise, a break and close above 1765 resistance could see price swing towards 1845 resistance.

On the H4 timeframe, price is trading within a range and is currently holding between 1765 daily resistance and 1728 support. With no good risk to reward ratio, we prefer to stay neutral and watch how price would form before taking any further directional bias. We note that technical indicators on the H4 are now mixed. With price holding above moving average and MACD going flat, looking to cross below 0.

Areas of consideration:

  • 1765 long term resistance to watch
  • No good levels for entry on the H4
  • H4 technical indicators are mixed

The accuracy, completeness and timeliness of the information contained on this site cannot be guaranteed. IC Markets does not warranty, guarantee or make any representations, or assume any liability regarding financial results based on the use of the information in the site.

News, views, opinions, recommendations and other information obtained from sources outside of www.icmarkets.com.au, used in this site are believed to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee their accuracy or completeness. All such information is subject to change at any time without notice. IC Markets assumes no responsibility for the content of any linked site.

The fact that such links may exist does not indicate approval or endorsement of any material contained on any linked site. IC Markets is not liable for any harm caused by the transmission, through accessing the services or information on this site, of a computer virus, or other computer code or programming device that might be used to access, delete, damage, disable, disrupt or otherwise impede in any manner, the operation of the site or of any user’s software, hardware, data or property.