Market sentiment has flown higher in the last few days as a ceasefire in the Middle East has combined with progress on trade deals between the US and its trade partners to dramatically pull back investor concerns.
There is no doubt that there are likely to be a few twists and turns in the days ahead on the geopolitical front; however, there will also be a strong focus on fundamentals with some key US data due out in the days ahead, including the crucial Non-Farms numbers.
We are also expecting some big updates from the great and good of central banking as they meet for the ECB’s Annual Central Bank Forum in Sintra, with some of the world’s heaviest hitters set to participate in a policy panel on Tuesday.
Here is our usual day-by-day breakdown of the major risk events this week:
Asian markets are expected to start on the front foot on Monday after Wall Street closed out the week strongly on Friday. The initial focus for the day will be on Chinese markets with the Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI numbers both due out early in the day. German Preliminary CPI numbers are due out in the European session, whilst we hear from the first of many central bank updates in the New York day with the Fed’s Bostic and Goolsbee set to speak before we hear opening remarks from the ECB’s Christine Lagarde in Sintra later in the day.
There is little of note on the calendar on Tuesday in the Asian session, but things should liven up once Europe comes in. Flash CPI data is due out for the EU early in the day, but the major focus will be on Sintra where we hear from the heads of the ECB, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, and the Fed when they participate in a policy panel. We have the first major US data out soon after the New York open with the ISM Manufacturing PMI data out alongside the JOLTS Job Openings numbers.
Australian markets will be the early focus for traders in Asia on Wednesday with the Retail Sales numbers due out. There is little on the cards in terms of data in the European session, although we will hear closing remarks from Sintra. The New York session sees more jobs numbers with the ADP Non-Farm numbers due out early in the day.
Thursday has the potential to be the busiest day of the week for traders, and although there is nothing significant due out in the Asian session, we have the key Swiss CPI data out in Europe followed by a data-packed session in New York. US markets are on holiday on Friday, so there is a raft of key tier 1 data due out on Thursday with the key Non-Farms numbers out alongside the Average Hourly Earnings, Unemployment Rate, and Weekly Unemployment Claims data. This is followed by the ISM Services PMI numbers later in the day.
Friday could very well be the calm after the storm of data, with nothing in the way of tier 1 data due out across all three sessions and no central bankers scheduled to speak. However, traders will remain vigilant for any geopolitical updates throughout the day, especially in the US session where liquidity will come at a premium and we are likely to hear something from President Trump.
