The Week Ahead – Week Commencing 29 April 2024

It was a volatile week for traders across products last week, and if anything, this week has the propensity to be even more lively. There is a plethora of tier 1 data set for release with several key numbers out of the US, including no less than 4 jobs updates culminating in the Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday and the small matter of the latest FOMC meeting. Throw in some holiday market trading conditions mid-way through the week, potential Yen intervention, and the continuation of earnings season, and you have a great recipe for some big moves in markets.

Here’s our usual day-by-day breakdown of the major economy’s scheduled risk events:

The week looks set to start on a positive footing for Asian markets after Wall Street closed higher on Friday and we haven’t seen too much on the geopolitical front over the weekend. It’s the quietest calendar day on Monday with little out in the Asian or US sessions. The European session does have some key inflation data out of both Spain and Germany which should keep Euro traders on their toes, but in general, expect relatively smooth trading conditions to kick off the week.

The event calendar starts to heat up from Tuesday and doesn’t really let up until the New York close on Friday. First up in the Asian session are the Retail Sales numbers out in Australia; however, these are likely to be superseded by the key Chinese PMI data prints later in the day. The London session is relatively quiet, but the New York session sees the initial focus on Canada with the release of the latest GDP numbers before the first major US data release of the week in the form of the CB Consumer Confidence number.

There are a plethora of holidays on Wednesday. China has the rest of the week off for Labor Day which will hit Asian market liquidity, but the big hit comes in Europe today with many major centers closed for May Day celebrations. The Asian session sees key employment data due out in New Zealand, but the real focus with Europe mostly closed will be on the US where a heavy data hit is due ahead of the latest Fed rate call. ADP and JOLTS job numbers are due out alongside the Manufacturing PMI data and ISM Manufacturing PMI numbers, and then we wait for the end of the session for the FOMC update. Cad traders will also note that BOC Governor Tiff Macklem is due to speak in Ottawa right at the end of the session.

The Asian session has little on the agenda today, but expect markets to be busy as investors digest the update from the Fed. There is key CPI data due out of Switzerland on the London open alongside retail sales data which should get franc traders out of their holiday malaise. The US session has yet more jobs data in the form of the weekly unemployment claims numbers, and we are set to hear from the Bank of Canada’s Tiff Macklem again.

There will be no let up for traders this Friday with the Non-Farm Payrolls numbers due out to take us into the weekend. Both the Asian and European sessions do look set to give investors a bit of respite with little on the schedule, but the New York day sees the non-farm numbers released alongside the Average Hourly Earnings data and the Unemployment rate. The ISM Services PMI data print is also due later in the day before traders hear that 5 pm bell and can get some well-earned rest and recreation.