US jobs numbers are in focus this week with four individual updates due out across the sessions, culminating in the key Non-Farms numbers on Friday. They will be heavily analysed as they are the last update before the anticipated Fed rate cut, with only a very strong reading likely to move the dial on a 25-basis point cut coming in a couple of weeks’ time.
There is the potential for some gapping on the Monday open in Asia, with Chinese PMI numbers due out over the weekend and several updates on tariffs out of the US, including a ruling by an appeals court that most of the tariffs are illegal.
Here is our usual day-by-day breakdown of the major risk events this week:
It is a quiet start to the week on the economic calendar on Monday, with mainly tier 3 data releases scheduled across all three trading sessions. Both US and Canadian markets are on holiday, which should see liquidity thin out significantly in the final session of the day.
There is little on the event calendar in the Asian session again on Tuesday, however, things do start to pick up once London opens. The key EU Core CPI Flash estimates are out early in the session, and Euro traders are expecting to see moves on the back of the update. We have the first (of many) tier 1 data releases from the US early in the New York session, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI numbers due out.
Australian markets will be in focus during the Asian session on Wednesday with the Quarterly GDP numbers set to be released, and we are also set to hear from RBA Governor Michele Bullock later in the day when she speaks in Perth. ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks shortly after the London open, and UK markets will be in focus on the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Report Hearings in Parliament. The New York session sees the first key US jobs number release of the week with the JOLTS Job Openings data coming out shortly after the open, and we also hear from the Fed’s Neel Kashkari later in the day.
There is nothing major due out in the Asian session on Thursday, but Swiss markets will be in focus early in the European day with the key CPI data due out. More jobs numbers are due out in the US, with the ADP Non-Farms and the Weekly Unemployment Claims data due out alongside each other early in the day. We later have the ISM Services PMI data out before we hear from Fed members John Williams and Austan Goolsbee later in the session.
It is Non-Farms Day on Friday, with the key US number due out alongside the Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings data. UK Retail Sales numbers are due out earlier in the day, and Canadian markets will be in focus as well with employment data and the Ivey PMI numbers due for release. However, expect the big US data to dominate sentiment.
