Volatility remained high last week as the US government at last returned fully to work after notching up its longest-ever shutdown. Markets had rallied into the expected resumption but then fell sharply after the actual event as investor concerns increased over the shutdown’s impact on Fed rate cuts.
Volatility looks set to remain high across markets in the coming week with some key data releases scheduled, including the US September Non-Farms numbers, just 48 days late. There are also some key updates from central banks, including the Fed Meeting Minutes and central bankers, with plenty of speeches scheduled.
Here is our usual day-by-day breakdown of the major risk events this week:
Traders are expecting a lively start to the week on Monday as investors continue to digest the impact of the US government’s return to work and the impact of pending data. The first two sessions of the day have little scheduled; however, we do have some big data due once New York opens, with the Canadian CPI numbers due out as well as the Empire State Manufacturing Index data in the US.
It’s a quiet day on Tuesday on the calendar. There will be an initial focus in the Asian session on Australian markets, with the RBA’s Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes due out early in the day. However, that is very much the highlight of the day in terms of scheduled events, with little else due out across the rest of the day to move markets.
Australian markets will again be in focus early on Wednesday with Wage Price Index data due out. The London session will see the release of key UK CPI data early in the day, with traders expecting plenty of volatility in the pound around the crucial release. There is little again on the cards in the US session until towards the end of the day when crucial FOMC Meeting Minutes are released.
Thursday looks like it could be the busiest day of the week, with key delayed US data due to be released later in the day. There is little of note scheduled for the first two sessions of the day, but the US September jobs numbers—including Non-Farm Payrolls, Average Hourly Earnings, and the Unemployment Rate—set to be released 48 days late, will most definitely provide plenty of volatility. There is also the possibility of the return of the usual Weekly Unemployment Claims data as well.
Friday looks to be a busy one as well, with data hits coming hard and fast in the later two sessions. Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI numbers are due out across a raft of countries, while the London session also sees the release of UK Retail Sales data. Canadian Retail Sales numbers are also due out shortly after the New York open, and we hear from the Swiss National Bank Chairman Martin Schlegel and ECB President Christine Lagarde.
