It was another busy week for traders last week, with new highs being hit across global stock markets and commodities. The continued US government shutdown meant that we had little in the way of data updates from the world’s biggest economy, and it was geopolitics that held the most sway.
Investors are expecting markets to start on the back foot this week after the trade conflict between the US and China dramatically increased on Friday, hitting Wall Street hard in the final session after President Trump advised that he would be hitting China with another 100% tariff on imports to the US.
There are some key data updates due across the week ahead, and most traders are hoping for US data releases to recommence soon. Geopolitical updates look set to dominate direction in the first few days at least, and later in the week we will hear from a raft of central bankers.
Here is our usual day-by-day breakdown of the major risk events this week:
It is a quiet start to the week with little on the calendar to move the dial; however, traders are expecting another busy day as they adjust to the escalating trade conflict between the US and China and react to the weekend’s updates. Liquidity could be an issue as well, with holidays in Japan, Canada, and the US likely to lead to some exacerbated moves.
The calendar does liven up on Tuesday with some major data due out, as well as key central bankers speaking. The Asian session will see a focus on Australian markets with the RBA’s latest Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes out early in the day. UK employment data is out early in the London session, and this is followed by German ZEW Economic Sentiment numbers. The New York session sees some major updates from central bankers, with both Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speaking, as well as other FOMC members.
Chinese markets will be in focus during the Asian session with key PPI and CPI numbers due out. The London session looks quiet; however, the New York time zone sees the release of the Empire State Manufacturing Index data and more updates from central bankers from around the world who are gathered in Washington, D.C., including RBA Governor Michele Bullock.
Australian markets will remain in focus at the start of the Asian session with key employment data due out midway through the Sydney day. UK markets will again be in focus on the European open with a major data drop due — the GDP data probably the pick of the bunch. There is a raft of US data scheduled shortly after the New York open, including PPI, Retail Sales, and Weekly Unemployment Claims numbers; however, we still do not know whether this will be released. Once again, several FOMC members and other central bankers are due to speak from Washington, D.C.
It’s a quiet calendar day to end the week — barring any updated US data releases — with no tier-1 data scheduled. There are more central bankers scheduled to speak across the later sessions; however, the impact by Friday is likely to be minimal given the updates that have already preceded them.
