ICMarket

The Week Ahead – Week Commencing 04 March 2024

Once again investors enter a fresh trading week in a buoyant mood as stock markets hit new record highs again, the Dow, the S&P, and the Nasdaq all hitting fresh levels in another strong session on Wall Street on Friday. It’s the first week of the trading month again and as usual, that means the event calendar is busy and it has a few more events this week which could see volatility start to pick up further.

Here’s our usual day-by-day break down of the major economy’s scheduled risk events:

The usual calm before the storm with the calendar very quiet on Monday. Nothing to excite traders in the Asian session, but Swiss traders will be on their toes for the Swiss CPI data release early in the European session. The New York day has nothing of note scheduled and investors will hope that just means more ‘risk on’ momentum for markets.

Japanese markets are very much in focus in the Asian session with the latest Tokyo Core CPI numbers due out. However, these are likely to be superseded by the Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda when he speaks later in the day. Chinese markets will also be in focus as the National People’s Congress kicks off in Beijing with the economy very much top of the agenda.  The New York session sees the first of many US data releases of the week in the form of the ISM Services PMI numbers and we are set to hear from the FOMC’s Michael Barr later in the day.

The Asian session kicks off with Australian markets in focus with the key quarterly GDP numbers set for release early in the day. The London session will have a focus on the UK, the Construction PMI numbers are due out as well as the latest UK budget announcement. It’s a busy New York session again with the ADP Non-Farm data out early in the day before the focus moves swiftly north of the border to Ottawa for the Bank of Canada’s Rate Decision, accompanying statements, and press conference. 

It’s another big day in markets on Thursday with most of the action taking place later in the day. Nothing is scheduled in APAC, but the European session sees the latest rate call, statement, and press conference from the European Central Bank. This is followed by the usual weekly unemployment claims numbers in the US and then we hear from the Fed Chair when he delivers his semi-annual Monetary Policy Report to Congress.

The hits keep on coming this week as we round out the week with a non-Farms Friday. Traders get a chance to have a bit of a hiatus in the first two sessions of the day but expect more volatility once the North American session gets going. Possibly the main event of the week comes in the form of the last non-Farms payroll data release before the March Fed meeting, with a huge surprise being needed to change market expectations. Loony traders, however, have a double headache with the Canadian employment data being released at the same time. Investors will also note that Chinese CPI and PPI numbers are set to come out over the weekend which can lead to some gapping on the Monday open.