EUR/USD:
Looking at the weekly chart we can see that price has bounced back but closed below the ascending trendline support-turned-resistance and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. There would be limited upside from this level before bearish pressure resumes. On the daily chart, prices face bearish pressure and were unable to close above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement where we could possibly see a medium-probability case where the price face bearish pressure to retest 1.18244, in-line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension.
On the H4 timeframe, prices were consolidating sideways but facing bearish pressure at 1.19800 from 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 50MA. We are seeing a medium-probability scenario where the prices face bearish pressure and retest first support level at 1.19090, in-line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension. The next level of support will be at 1.18600, in-line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension.
If the prices bounce from current level, it will swing towards our first resistance at 1.19915, in-line with -27.2% Fibonacci retracement, 78.6% Fibonacci extension and 200MA on the daily. The next level of resistance will be at 1.20130, in-line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 161.8% Fibonacci extension.
Areas of consideration:
- H4 time frame, support level at 1.19090 and 1.18600
- H4 time frame, resistance level at 1.19915 and 1.20130
GBP/USD:
Looking at the weekly chart, we can see that the price faced bearish pressure and was unable to close above 20EMA and ascending trendline support-turned-resistance. On the daily time frame, prices faced bearish pressure and got rejected at 38.2% and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. We are seeing a medium-probability scenario where the prices continue to face bearish pressure to support level at 1.36780, in-line with 61.8% and 78.6% Fibonacci extension.
On the H4 timeframe, prices faced bearish pressure and found support at 1.3870, in-line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. We are seeing a medium-probability scenario where the prices face further bearish pressure to retest support level at 1.38120, in-line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension. RSI is also facing bearish pressure supporting our short-term bearish outlook. The next support level will be at 1.37228, in-line with 127.2% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci extension.
If the prices bounce from current level, the first resistance level will be at 1.39053, in-line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci extension and daily resistance. The next resistance level will be at 1.39610, in-line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension.
Areas of consideration:
- H4 time frame, 38120 and 1.37228 support level
- H4 time frame, 1.39053 and 1.39610 resistance level
AUD/USD:
Looking at the weekly chart, we can see that the price found support at 0.75010, in-line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 50MA. On the daily time frame, prices gained bullish pressure and closed back above 200MA. If the price continues to bounce, it will potentially face bearish pressure at 0.76360, in-line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 20EMA.
On the H4 timeframe, prices pulled back and found support at 0.75835, in-line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. We are seeing price facing bullish pressure from key support level at 0.75740, in-line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, 127.2% Fibonacci extension and 20EMA crossover 50MA. If the price fails to hold current level, the next support level at 0.75466, in-line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension.
If price bounce from current level, it will swing towards our first resistance at 0.76329, in-line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 200% Fibonacci extension. The next resistance will be at 0.76645, in-line with -27.2% and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Areas of consideration:
- H4 time frame, 75740 and 0.75466 support level
- H4 time frame, 0.76329 and 0.76645 resistance level
USD/JPY
From the weekly timeframe, prices are bullish and are pushing up towards facing resistance from horizontal swing high resistance level 114.465 which coincides with 127.2% Fibonacci retracement. On the daily time frame, prices are holding nicely above the 21 period EMA. Prices have broken through the previous resistance level of 110.978 and are now pushing up towards the weekly level of 114.665,in line with 100% Fibonacci extension. A pullback from that level could mean prices would take support on 108.425 level.
On the H4 timeframe, prices are showing the same picture. Prices have broken through the previous swing high which is daily/weekly resistance level of 110.978. Next short term target is 112.148 level in line with 161.8% Fibonacci extension before the 114.665 level on the daily and weekly timeframe. 34 Period EMA is also below prices, showing a bullish pressure for prices.
Areas of consideration:
- 148 resistance level on the H4 timeframe might be next upside target
- 786 support level on the H4 timeframe
USD/CAD:
On the Weekly timeframe, price is within a long term descending trend. Holding below long term moving average and MACD indicator is below 0, showing strong bearish momentum. Price is currently holding between long term resistance at 1.25470 and long term support at 1.20068. On the Daily timeframe, we see that the indicators are showing a build up in bullish momentum. It is possible to see further bullish pressure above support at 1.21772 with possible upside target at weekly resistance 1.25470. Otherwise, failure to hold above 1.21772 will see price swing to graphical low at 1.20068.
On the H4, we see price pulling lower and facing bearish pressure below 1.23407 resistance. A short term intraday drop towards our daily support at 1.21772 could be possible. Otherwise, failure to hold below 1.23407 will see price retrace towards next resistance at 1.24031. MACD on the H4 is now below 0, showing a build up of short term bearish momentum.
Areas of consideration:
- Long term bearish momentum on the weekly is in line with short term intraday bearish momentum on H4
- Daily support at 1.21772 is key level to watch
USD/CHF:
USD/CHF has shown a strong bounce from the weekly 0.89500 support, in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension. The daily chart shows that price is now testing the key daily 0.92300 support-turned-resistance and ascending trendline support-turned-resistance. We could potentially see further downside below the 0.92300 resistance.
On the H4 chart, we can see that price has shown a reversal at the 0.92300 resistance level, in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, and is now holding below descending trendline resistance. We note that RSI has also broken below the ascending trendline support-turned-resistance. In this scenario, we could see price face further downside towards 0.90500 support, in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, 161.8% Fibonacci extension and horizontal pullback resistance. However, should price break and close above the 0.92300 resistance, we could see price push higher to test the subsequent weekly resistances.
Areas of consideration:
- The 0.92300 resistance is a key intraday level to watch.
- We could see price drop towards the next 0.90500 support level.
Dow Jones Industrial Average:
On the weekly chart, prices bounced higher above 32765 support, as inflation fears subsided. With price holding 32765 support, we might see bullish pressure above this level. On the daily chart, price bounced above the weekly support at 32765 and is currently holding between resistance at 15090 and support at 32765. With stochastic still reacting above support, we see price facing further bullish pressure.
On the H4, price is now testing near term resistance at 34472. With stochastic testing resistance where price pulled back in the past, we see a possibility where sellers may add to their shorts on pullbacks with a downside target at 33475 support. Otherwise, failure to hold below 34472 should see the price swing the other way towards daily resistance at 35090.
Areas of consideration:
- Weekly key level at 32765 support is of key interest
- 34472 near term resistance on H4
XAU/USD (GOLD):
On the weekly timeframe, price tested and reacted above key trendline pullback support at 1764. On the daily, price tested and reacted above 1764 weekly support. While 1764 support looks fragile, as long as we do not have a daily close below this support, we may see price bounce towards 1855 resistance. Otherwise, breaking below 1764 support, price could drop lower towards 1677 support next.
On the H4, price is trading sideways within a range and is holding above 1764 support. We see a low probability bullish scenario where buyers could add to their longs above 1764 weekly support with a possible upside target at 1808 resistance. Otherwise, failure to hold above 1764 weekly support will see price drop much lower towards next support at 1724. Stochastic is reacting above support where price bounced in the past.
Areas of consideration:
- 1764 support is the key level to watch.
- 1808 resistance on H4 to watch.
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