Monday 14th June 2021: Technical Outlook and Review

IC Markets No Comments

EUR/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart, we can see that prices have pulled back and there could potentially be further bearish pressure to our 20 EMA at 1.20600. On the daily chart price bounced off 1.20931, in line with 50 MA and 61.8% on Fibonacci retracement last Friday where there could potentially be a short-term bounce before facing further bearish pressure to retest 1.20600 of weekly 20 EMA.

On the H4 timeframe, prices are trending in the descending channel making lower highs and lower lows. There could potentially be further bearish pressure to test 1.20600, in-line with our -27.2% Fibonacci extension, descending trendline support and weekly 20 EMA. MACD is also trending down, signalling further bearish pressure. This would be the key support level to monitor for today. If price breaks the level there could be further bearish pressure to 1.20110, in-line with our -61.8% and -78.6% Fibonacci extension.

If price bounces back, they could face further bearish pressure at 1.21311, in-line with our 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and overlap resistance. If the bounce continues, the level of resistance will be at 1.21702, in-line with our 61.8%Fibonacci extension, descending trendline and overlap resistance.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, support level at 1.20600
  • H4 time frame, resistance level at 1.21311 and 1.21702

GBP/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart, we can see that prices have pulled back but still above our ascending trend line and support at 1.40000 where we could potentially have pull-back before further upside. The daily time frame echoes the same view of a short-term pull back toward our ascending trendline and 50MA before further upside towards 1.43000 as our resistance target.

On the H4 timeframe, prices are consolidating sideways in a descending channel. Prices could potentially face short-term bearish pressure to our next support at 1.40610, in line with our 127.2% Fibonacci extension and descending trendline support. If price breaks this level, the next support will be at 1.40080, in line with 161.8% Fibonacci extension, 50MA and ascending trendline support from the daily

If price bounces back, there could potentially be bearish pressure at 1.41578, in line with 78.6% Fibonacci extension and descending trendline resistance. Follow up next resistance level at 1.42114, in line with 127.2% Fibonacci extension and overlap swing high resistance.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, 40610 support level
  • H4 time frame, 1.41578 and 1.42114 resistance level

AUD/USD:

From the Weekly timeframe, we see price trending sideways where it may return down towards 0.76073, in line with previous swing low and 78.6% fibonacci retracement. From the daily timeframe, we see price testing the 61.8% fibonacci retracement at 0.76953, if price manages to break under this level, we may see a push down further towards the weekly support.

On the H4 timeframe, we see price reversing from the daily support level of 0.76953, where we may expect a pullback towards 0.77240, in line with 61.8% fibonacci extension, 38.2% fibonacci retracement, and horizontal graphical overlap. From here, we may look for the next call of short which is in line with the bigger timeframe.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 timeframe, price may pullback from 0.76953 towards 0.77240.
  • Daily and weekly time frames showing bearish pressure. 

 

USD/JPY

From the weekly timeframe, prices are facing resistance from horizontal swing high resistance which coincides with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension, taking support from 104.224 level which is in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension. On the daily time frame, prices are facing support from 108.425 level which coincides with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 50% Fibonacci extension. Prices might bounce towards daily resistance level 110.978 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Daily EMA is also below prices, showing a bullish pressure for prices.

On the H4 timeframe, prices are bouncing from 109.066 level in line with 100% Fibonacci extension and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement towards daily resistance level 110.978. Otherwise, if prices did not push up further, prices could fall and take support on 108.425  level, in line with daily support level. Indicators on the daily timeframe suggest that the pullback is temporary and there is still a long term bullish pressure for prices. MACD is also showing a bullish pressure for prices.

Areas of consideration:

  • On the H4, prices might push up towards 110.978 daily resistance level
  • 066 support level on the H4 timeframe
  • 425 support level on the daily timeframe

 

USD/CAD:

From the Weekly timeframe, we see price pushing higher away from the support level 1.20340, in line with support from 11 may (2015), 61.8% and 161.8% fibonacci extension level. On the daily timeframe, we see price testing the level of 1.21629, in line with 78.6% fibonacci retracement. If price manages to break above this level, we may see a push up towards 1.22707, in line with Weekly resistance and horizontal graphical overlap.

The H4 timeframe shows a reversal from -61.8% fibonacci retracement where we may see a pullback towards the 1.21179 level, in line with 61.8% fibonacci retracement, 100% fibonacci extension and horizontal graphical overlap. From here, we may look for a long position back towards 1.21678 level, in line with the bullish view.

Areas of consideration:

  • The weekly and daily time frame shows a weak bullish momentum.
  • On H4, price may pull back towards 1.21179.

USD/CHF:

USD/CHF is now testing the weekly 0.89500 support, in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension. The daily chart shows that price is now holding below the key daily 0.92300 support-turned-resistance, and has also broken below the ascending trendline support-turned-resistance. The weekly 0.89500 support level is a key level to watch.

On the H4 chart, we can see that price has bounced from  the key weekly 0.89500 support level, in line with 127.20% Fibonacci extension, and is re-approaching the 0.90800 resistance. We note that Stochastics is also approaching the upper resistance level where it has reversed off of before, showing signs of possible bearish pressure. In this scenario, we could see price at the 0.90800 resistance and drop further from there. A break and close below the key 0.89500 support would see price swing towards the next weekly support.

Areas of consideration:

  • The 0.89500 weekly support is a key intraday level to watch.
  • Stochastics is showing signs of possible bearish pressure.

Dow Jones Industrial Average:

On the weekly chart, price is trading sideways. With price holding above the long term moving average, we can expect further bullish pressure above 32765 support. On the daily chart, price is still holding above the moving average but testing ascending trendline support. Buyers may look  to add  their longs to push price higher towards possible target at 35970 resistance.

On the H4, price dipped lower and continues to face bearish pressure below 35091 resistance. We could possibly see more sellers enter with their shorts to play a short term drop towards 33800 support. Otherwise, failure to hold below 35091 resistance will see price push higher towards 35970 resistance next. Stochastic is testing resistance where price showed a pull back in the past.

Areas of consideration:

  • Watch resistance at 35091 on H4 closely
  • Stochastics reacting below resistance on H4

XAU/USD (GOLD):

On the weekly timeframe, prices are facing bullish pressure and could still see further upside, with 1965 as the weekly resistance target. On the daily, price pulled back lower, approaching 1850 support. With technical indicators showing room for further bullish momentum, we could see buyers looking to add to their longs above 1850 support and push price towards 1965 resistance.

On the H4, price dropped lower and is approaching 1865 intraday support. With stochastics approaching support where price bounced in the past as well, we see a medium probability bullish scenario where buyers may look to add to their longs with a possible upside target at 1903 resistance. Otherwise, failure to hold above 1865 support could see price drop lower towards 1850 daily support instead.

Areas of consideration:

  • 1903 resistance to watch on H4 timeframe
  • Descending trendline resistance on H4

The accuracy, completeness and timeliness of the information contained on this site cannot be guaranteed. IC Markets does not warranty, guarantee or make any representations, or assume any liability regarding financial results based on the use of the information in the site.

News, views, opinions, recommendations and other information obtained from sources outside of www.icmarkets.com.au, used in this site are believed to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee their accuracy or completeness. All such information is subject to change at any time without notice. IC Markets assumes no responsibility for the content of any linked site.

The fact that such links may exist does not indicate approval or endorsement of any material contained on any linked site. IC Markets is not liable for any harm caused by the transmission, through accessing the services or information on this site, of a computer virus, or other computer code or programming device that might be used to access, delete, damage, disable, disrupt or otherwise impede in any manner, the operation of the site or of any user’s software, hardware, data or property.