IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 24 September 2025
What happened in the U.S. session?
The overnight U.S. session was characterized by mixed economic data showing deceleration but resilience. While the PMI data and Richmond Fed survey pointed to slowing growth momentum, the significant improvement in the current account deficit provided a positive offset. Powell’s cautious approach to future rate cuts created uncertainty in markets, leading to profit-taking in tech stocks despite continued record highs. Gold emerged as the standout performer, benefiting from multiple tailwinds, including Fed dovishness, geopolitical tensions, and safe-haven demand. The U.S. dollar remained under pressure near multi-year lows, while oil markets found support from supply concerns and geopolitical risks.
What does it mean for the Asia Session?
Wednesday’s session will be dominated by Australia’s crucial inflation data, which could significantly impact RBA policy expectations and regional currency markets. The broader environment of US dollar weakness, record-high gold prices, and divergent central bank policies creates both opportunities and risks for Asian traders. While global equity momentum remains positive, economic data from China and Europe will provide important clues about global growth trajectories. Traders should particularly watch for any shifts in Fed policy expectations and ongoing developments in geopolitical tensions that could drive safe-haven flows.
The Dollar Index (DXY)
Key news events today
New Home Sales (2:00 pm GMT)
What can we expect from DXY today?
The US Dollar faces continued headwinds as markets digest the Fed’s shift toward an easing cycle amid persistent inflation and labor market weakness. While technical analysis suggests potential for a near-term rebound from current levels, the fundamental backdrop of expected rate cuts, policy uncertainty, and reduced safe-haven demand continues to pressure the greenback. Key economic data releases this week, including core PCE inflation data on Friday, will be crucial for determining the dollar’s near-term direction and the Fed’s October policy decision.
Central Bank Notes:
- The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted, by majority, to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%–4.25% at its September 16–17, 2025, meeting, marking the first policy rate adjustment since December 2024 after five consecutive holds.
- The Committee maintained its long-term objective of achieving maximum employment and 2% inflation, acknowledging recent labor market softening and continued tariff-driven price pressures.
- Policymakers expressed elevated concern about downside risks to growth, citing a stalling labor market, modest job creation, and an unemployment rate drifting up toward 4.4%. At the same time, inflation remains above target, with CPI at 3.2% and core inflation at 3.1% as of August 2025; higher energy and food prices, largely attributable to tariffs, continue to weigh on headline measures.
- Although economic activity expanded at a moderate pace in the third quarter, the growth outlook has weakened. Q3 GDP growth is estimated near 1.0% (annualized), with full-year 2025 GDP growth guidance revised to 1.2%, reflecting slowing household consumption and tighter financial conditions.
- In the updated Summary of Economic Projections, the unemployment rate is projected to average 4.5% for the year, with headline PCE inflation revised up slightly to 3.1% for 2025. The Committee anticipates core PCE inflation to remain stubborn, requiring sustained vigilance and a flexible approach to risk management.
- The Committee reiterated its data-dependent approach and openness to further adjustments should employment or inflation deviate meaningfully from current forecasts. Several members dissented, either advocating a larger 50-basis-point cut or preferring no adjustment at this meeting, revealing heightened divergence within the Committee.
- Balance sheet reduction continues at a measured pace. The monthly Treasury redemption cap remains at $5B and the agency MBS cap at $35B, as the Board aims to support orderly market conditions in the face of evolving global and domestic uncertainty.
- The next meeting is scheduled for 28 to 29 October 2025.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish
Gold (XAU)
Key news events today
New Home Sales (2:00 pm GMT)
What can we expect from Gold today?
Gold’s record-breaking performance reflects a confluence of factors, including dovish Federal Reserve expectations, China’s strategic gold initiatives, persistent central bank buying, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties. While technical indicators suggest potential for near-term consolidation around current levels, the fundamental backdrop remains supportive for higher prices. Key resistance at $3,800 represents the next major test, with many analysts projecting further gains toward $4,000 or higher in the coming months. The upcoming PCE inflation data on Friday will provide crucial insights into the Fed’s policy trajectory and could significantly influence gold’s near-term direction.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Strong Bullish
The Australian Dollar (AUD)
Key news events today
CPI y/y (1:30 am GMT)
What can we expect from AUD today?
The Australian Dollar enters the final week of September 2025 at a critical juncture. While the currency has shown resilience with monthly gains, upcoming data releases, including the September 24 CPI indicator and the September 30 RBA decision will be pivotal. The combination of slowing domestic economic momentum, mixed Chinese data, and global trade uncertainties suggests continued volatility ahead. Market participants are closely watching for signs that August’s inflation spike was temporary rather than indicative of broader price pressures, which could significantly influence the RBA’s policy trajectory and the AUD’s direction through year-end.
Central Bank Notes:
- The RBA held its cash rate steady at 3.60% at its September meeting on 8–9 September 2025, following a 25 basis point reduction at the August meeting. This maintains a cautious yet supportive stance, with the decision largely anticipated given recent evidence of inflation settling within the target band.
- Inflation readings continue to ease, with headline CPI most likely tracking near 2.1–2.3%—comfortably within the 2–3% target range. September quarter figures are pending, but leading indicators show further moderation in non-housing components, even as insurance and housing-related costs remain sticky.
- The RBA’s preferred trimmed mean inflation is estimated at around 2.7%–2.9%, further reflecting progress toward the midpoint of the target range. Energy and food volatility still create some short-term uncertainty, but underlying inflation is broadly on track.
- Global conditions are a key source of risk. While U.S.–EU trade tensions have stabilized slightly, volatility in equities and commodities persists, with uncertainty feeding through to Australia’s trade and export outlook.
- Domestic demand shows tentative improvement. Real household incomes and a stabilizing housing sector have underpinned modest consumption growth, though business investment remains uneven—service sectors outperforming manufacturing and construction.
- Labor market tightness persists, but momentum continues to slow from earlier in the year. Employment gains remain, but job vacancies and hiring intentions have softened, with underutilization rising marginally for the second straight month.
- Wage growth has slowed in line with easing labour pressures, but unit labour costs remain elevated due to weak productivity. The RBA continues to flag subdued productivity as a medium-term cost risk.
- Forward indicators suggest household consumption may be softer than previously forecast. Elevated rents and high borrowing costs are dampening discretionary spending, despite modest income recovery.
- The Board continues to highlight the risk that household spending could underperform, potentially weighing on business investment and job creation if confidence remains subdued.
- Monetary policy remains mildly restrictive, in line with greater inflation control and ongoing economic rebalancing. The decision to hold rates recognizes both progress and ongoing uncertainties, with future moves explicitly tied to incoming data.
- The Reserve Bank reinforced its goals of price stability and full employment, stating readiness to adjust policy if economic or inflation outcomes diverge from baseline projections.
- The next meeting is on 29 to 30 September 2025.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish
The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)
Key news events today
No major news event
What can we expect from NZD today?
The New Zealand Dollar faces a challenging environment with several critical developments converging. The historic appointment of the first female RBNZ Governor represents a significant institutional milestone, but the new leader will inherit substantial challenges, including economic weakness, market pressure for aggressive rate cuts, and the need to restore central bank credibility.
Central Bank Notes:
- The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 3.00% on 20 August 2025, marking a three-year low and continuing the easing cycle after July’s pause. The vote was split 4-2, with two members advocating a 50-basis-point cut, highlighting diverging views within the Committee.
- Policymakers indicated that significant uncertainty and a stalling economic recovery prompted this move, leaving the door open for further rate cuts later in the year, with a possible trough around 2.5% by December.
- Annual consumer price index inflation rose to 2.7% in the June quarter and is expected to reach 3% for the September quarter—at the upper end of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target band—but medium-term expectations remain anchored near the 2% midpoint.
- Despite the near-term uptick, headline inflation is projected to return toward 2% by mid-2026, as tradables inflation pressures ease and significant spare capacity continues to dampen domestic price momentum.
- Domestic financial conditions are broadly aligning with MPC expectations, as lower wholesale rates have translated into reduced borrowing costs for households. However, declining consumption and investment demand, higher unemployment, and subdued wage growth reflect ongoing economic slack.
- GDP growth stalled in the second quarter of 2025, contrasting with earlier projections. High-frequency indicators point to continued weakness driven by rising prices for essentials, weakening household savings, and constrained business lending.
- The MPC cautioned that ongoing global tariff uncertainties and policy shifts, especially recent changes in US trade regulations, could amplify market volatility and present both upside and downside risks to New Zealand’s recovery.
- Subject to medium-term inflation pressures continuing to ease as projected, the MPC signaled scope for further OCR cuts, possibly down to 2.5% by year-end, consistent with the latest Monetary Policy Statement outlook.
- The next meeting is on 22 October 2025.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish
The Japanese Yen (JPY)
Key news events today
No major news event
What can we expect from JPY today?
The Japanese Yen faces a complex environment heading into late September 2025. While the BoJ maintains its cautious approach to rate hikes, growing hawkish sentiment within the board and the decision to begin asset sales signal a gradual shift toward policy normalization. Inflation remains above the 2% target but is showing signs of moderation, particularly in energy costs due to government subsidies. The manufacturing sector continues to struggle with trade headwinds, though services remain resilient. Market participants are closely watching the upcoming Tokyo CPI data and any further signals from BoJ officials regarding the timing of future rate adjustments.
Central Bank Notes:
- The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 17 September, by a unanimous vote, to set the following guidelines for money market operations for the inter-meeting period:
- The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%.
- The BOJ will continue its gradual reduction of monthly outright purchases of Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs). The scheduled amount of long-term government bond purchases remains unchanged from the prior decision, with a quarterly reduction pace of about ¥400 billion through March 2026 and about ¥200 billion per quarter from April to June 2026 onward, aiming for a purchase level near ¥2 trillion in January to March 2027.
- Japan’s economy continues to show a moderate recovery, with household consumption supported by rising incomes, although corporate activity has softened somewhat. Overseas economies remain on a moderate growth path, with the impact of global trade policies still weighing on Japan’s export and industrial production outlook.
- On the price front, the year-on-year rate of change in consumer prices (excluding fresh food) remains in the mid-3% range. Inflationary pressures remain broad-based, with persistent cost-push factors in food and energy, alongside solid wage pass-through. However, input cost pressures from past import surges are showing early signs of easing.
- Short-term inflation momentum may moderate as cost-push effects diminish, though rent increases and service-related price gains tied to labor shortages are likely to provide support. Inflation expectations among firms and households continue a gradual upward drift.
- Looking ahead, the economy is projected to grow at a slower-than-trend pace in the near term due to external demand softness and cautious corporate investment plans. However, accommodative financial conditions and steady increases in real labor income are expected to underpin domestic demand.
- In the medium term, as overseas economies recover and global trade stabilizes, Japan’s growth potential is likely to improve. With persistent labor market tightness and rising medium- to long-term inflation expectations, core inflation is projected to remain on a gradual upward trend, converging toward the 2% price stability target in the latter half of the projection horizon.
- The next meeting is scheduled for 30 to 31 October 2025.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
Oil
Key news events today
EIA crude oil inventories (2:30 pm GMT)
What can we expect from Oil today?
A pivotal moment for oil markets emerged as multiple factors converged to create complex price dynamics. While short-term supply disruption concerns from the Kurdistan pipeline delay and geopolitical tensions provided upward pressure, the outlook of fundamental oversupply continued to weigh on longer-term price expectations. The market demonstrated the dual nature of current oil dynamics: immediate supply risks supporting prices in the near term, while structural oversupply from OPEC+ production increases and modest demand growth point toward significantly lower prices by late 2025 and into 2026.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
