US Stocks Push Higher Despite Shutdown – Dow up 0.5%
US stock markets brushed aside the ongoing US government shutdown to push to more records in trading on Friday. Both the S&P and the Dow drove higher to hit record closes as the market missed out on its usual first Friday of the month Non-Farm Payrolls hit. The Dow added 0.51% to close at 46,785, the S&P edged just 0.01% higher to 6,715, while the Nasdaq fell 0.28% to 22,780. The dollar remained in familiar ranges, the DXY dropping 0.14% to 97.71, while Treasury yields pushed higher, with both the 2- and 10-year yields adding 3.7 basis points on the day to close at 3.576% and 4.119% respectively. Oil prices did get a bit of a reprieve after losing close to 8% over the week, Brent rising 0.41% on Friday to $64.37, and WTI adding 0.66% to $60.88 a barrel. Gold resumed its push higher again, adding 0.78% to close at $3,886.54, just shy of its recent record high.
US Government Shutdown Continues
US markets have remained incredibly resilient in the face of the recent government shutdown; however, traders are starting to factor in bearish scenarios if the situation persists and the administration goes ahead with threatened job cuts. As the shutdown enters its sixth day with little sign of a resolution on the horizon, some investors fear that we could see some dramatic moves in the market, with one estimate suggesting a $15 billion loss in GDP per week if the shutdown continues. With the major US indices sitting at all-time highs, there is a fear that any corrections could be a lot harder than in normal circumstances. For the time being, markets are remaining resilient, but there are certainly some traders out there preparing to hit the ‘sell’ button if the shutdown continues and the economy looks like taking a substantial hit on the back of it.
Quiet Calendar Day Ahead, but Volatility Expected
It’s a quiet calendar day ahead for traders today in what is a relatively quiet calendar week; however, traders are still expecting to see plenty of moves with some markets sitting at historic levels and geopolitical updates anticipated across the sessions. We have already seen big moves for Japanese markets after the surprise victory for Sanae Takaichi over the weekend, as she became Japan’s first female Prime Minister. USDJPY saw huge gapping on the open as the market priced in a more dovish scenario for the Bank of Japan, and traders are expecting more moves as the trading day progresses. Australian and Chinese markets are on holiday today, which will reduce liquidity in the first session of the day. There is very little in the way of data on the calendar today; however, we do hear from some central bank heavyweights later in the day, with both ECB President Christine Lagarde and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey set to speak, and traders are expecting moves in their respective markets.
