Markets finished the week in relatively buoyant form after US employment data missed expectations on Thursday, lifting hopes of fewer interest rate hikes from the Fed in the coming months, with stock markets having one of their best weeks in the past few months.
Several financial products had been trading at annual records prior to the data, including Gold, which had dipped to a fresh low on Tuesday, and several of the major currencies, with most now pulled back into recent ranges. USDJPY was the standout, having notably notched up a 40-year high earlier in the week before dropping after the data, helping to pull back intervention expectations.
Geopolitical surprises seem to be pulling back in velocity over the last couple of weeks as well, which is helping to improve trading conditions. However, traders are keeping a very close watch on developments in the Middle East, as they are aware of just how quickly things could escalate there.
It looks like being, on the calendar front at least, a very quiet week ahead. There are a few key updates in local jurisdictions, including a key interest rate update out of New Zealand and the release of the Fed minutes, but apart from that, traders could be forgiven for expecting a rare, relatively quiet week ahead.
Here is our usual day-by-day breakdown of the major risk events this week:
It is another quiet calendar Monday to start the trading week, with little on the schedule throughout the day. The New York session may prove to be livelier, with US markets returning after their long weekend and the first major US data of the week due early in the session in the form of the ISM Services PMI numbers.
Tuesday is also looking like a relatively quiet day, with nothing of note on the calendar during the Asian session and just comments from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey in the London session. There will be a focus on Canadian markets early in the US day when the Ivey PMI data is released, but apart from that, expect another relatively quiet day.
There is a strong central bank focus on Wednesday, with the Asian session dominated by the latest interest rate update from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, where a hike is on the cards. There is little else on the schedule for the rest of the trading day until towards the end of the New York session, when the latest FOMC Meeting Minutes are released.
Thursday is again a relatively quiet calendar day, with nothing of note scheduled during the Asian session. The London session sees the release of the latest ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts, and we have the weekly US Unemployment Claims numbers due early in the New York session, but again, it could be a range-bound day for markets.
New Zealand markets are closed on Friday, which may affect liquidity early in the Asian session. There is little on the calendar in the Asian and London time zones either. However, the focus will again be on Canadian markets early in the New York session when key employment numbers are released, but after that, there is little of note scheduled, so we may see the week close out in a relatively quiet fashion.
