Stock markets again closed out the week on or near all-time highs as investor confidence in the States pushed higher after the Fed delivered its first interest rate cut for the year on Wednesday. Global markets jumped on the US bandwagon, and investors are hoping for more of the same in the week ahead.
There is a good mix of data and central bank updates in the coming days, although this week the latter will be from verbal updates as various committee members are let off their meeting curfews to share their thoughts with us after a raft of rate decisions over the last few days.
Traders are expecting plenty of volatility across financial products, with risk events spread nicely across the next few days as well as the high potential for more geopolitical surprises to keep them on their toes.
Here is our usual day-by-day breakdown of the major risk events this week:
There is a raft of central bank speakers on Monday to kick off the week, with the highlights likely to be the RBA’s Governor Michele Bullock, who speaks early in the Asian session, and the BOE’s Andrew Bailey, who speaks towards the end of the day. We also have Chinese Loan Prime Rate updates later in the session, which could see moves in local markets. We are hit hard and fast with central banker updates during the London and New York sessions, with the MPC’s Pill and the Buba’s Nagel speaking earlier in the day, followed by the Fed’s Williams, Musalem, Miran, Barkin, and Hammock.
It is PMI day on Tuesday, with Flash Manufacturing and Services data due out across the globe, including updates from Australia, France, Germany, the EU, the UK, and the US. More central bankers are in action as well, with the MPC’s Pill again on the rostrum along with the Fed’s Bostic, but the highlight is likely to be when we hear from Fed Chair Jerome Powell towards the end of the day.
The initial focus in Asia will be on Australian markets, with the key CPI data due out early in the piece. We have German IFO numbers and US New Home Sales data out later in the day, but traders are expecting a quieter day overall.
It’s a relatively quiet calendar start to the day on Thursday with not much scheduled; however, all eyes will be on Swiss markets early in the London session with the Swiss National Bank set to announce its latest interest rate decision. There is a plethora of US data due later in the day, with Final GDP, Weekly Unemployment Claims, Durable Goods, and Existing Home Sales numbers all due to be released. We also hear from Fed members Goolsbee, Williams, Bowman, Barr, Logan, and Daly during the session.
Japanese markets will be in focus for the Asian session, with the key Tokyo Core CPI numbers due out. There is little of note due out in the European session, but we do have probably the most impactful data event scheduled just after the New York open, with the US Core PCE Price Index number due out. This comes alongside the Canadian GDP number, but expect the US inflation number to have a greater impact. The Fed’s Barkin and Bowman also speak again during the afternoon.
