It was a busy week again for financial markets, as geopolitical updates on the Gulf competed with a plethora of interest rate updates from key central banks, tier 1 data, and major corporate earnings updates to keep markets volatile.
It is slightly quieter on the macroeconomic front this week; however, big US employment numbers over the week, building up to the key Non-Farms data on Friday, will be a major focus alongside an anticipated rate hike from the RBA and more expected updates on the constantly changing situation in the Middle East.
Bank holiday markets could also contribute to market moves over the coming days, with several key financial centres having breaks throughout the week, which should see liquidity come at a premium in some key trading sessions.
Here is our usual day-by-day breakdown of the major risk events this week:
It’s a quiet calendar start to the week on Monday, with some of the major centres on holiday again, which could add to exacerbated moves in thinner markets. There are only third-tier data releases scheduled across the three sessions, and we do hear from the Bank of Canada Governor later in the day; however, geopolitical updates are likely again to be the main catalyst for any moves.
Australian markets will be in focus on Tuesday, with the Reserve Bank of Australia set to update the market on its latest rate call, while both Chinese and Japanese markets are closed again. The London session will see an early focus on Swiss markets, with key CPI numbers due out, before we then hear from ECB President Christine Lagarde. US data for the week starts in earnest later in the day, with ISM Services PMI (exp 53.8), JOLTS Job Openings (exp 6.87mio), and New Home Sales (exp 668k) numbers all due out.
It’s an early start for data on Wednesday, with New Zealand Employment Change (exp +0.3% q/q) and Unemployment Rate (exp 5.4%) data due early in the session, before we then hear from RBNZ Governor Anna Breman. It’s a quiet calendar in the London session on Wednesday; however, we have more US employment numbers out soon after the New York open, with the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (exp +90k), followed by the Canadian Ivey PMI (exp 49.9) data release. Later in the day, we again hear from Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem.
There will be an initial focus on Kiwi markets again on Thursday, with RBNZ Governor Anna Breman testifying on the Monetary Policy Statement in Wellington early in the day. However, it is a much quieter day through the other trading sessions, with just the usual Weekly Unemployment Claims data (exp 203k) due out of the US later in the day, set to trouble the scorers.
It is Non-Farm Payroll Day on Friday, and it is a typical setup for the big US employment data, with very little scheduled in the preceding two trading sessions. Canadian Employment Change (exp 2.1k) and Unemployment Rate (exp 6.7%) numbers are due out alongside the big US data – Non-Farm Employment Change (exp +60k), Average Hourly Earnings (exp +0.3% m/m), and Unemployment Rate (exp 4.3%) – and traders expect to see plenty of volatility around the release. Later in the session, the Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (exp 49.3) and Inflation Expectations (last 4.7%) numbers are also released; however, expect the jobs numbers to dominate sentiment into the weekend.
