IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 09 December 2025
What happened in the Asia session?
During the Asia session, markets exhibited caution ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s anticipated 25 basis point rate cut, with Asian stocks slipping, Japan’s Nikkei 225 down 0.11%, South Korea’s Kospi off 0.36%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 declining 0.19% while the dollar held steady and Treasury yields rose. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its cash rate unchanged at 3.6% for the third consecutive meeting, citing recent inflation upticks and economic strength like falling unemployment to 4.3%, though it noted uncertainty in new monthly CPI data.
What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?
Today’s sessions hinge on the U.S. Fed-related catalysts and catch-up data post-shutdown, European soft retail metrics, and global GDP resilience forecasts around 3% into 2026, urging vigilance on rate paths and trade risks. Traders should monitor key U.S. economic releases like delayed government data, including jobs reports and FOMC minutes, alongside European indicators such as German retail sales and UK borrowing figures, as markets open amid Fed rate decision anticipation and post-shutdown volatility.
The Dollar Index (DXY)
Key news events today
JOLTS Job Openings (3:00 pm GMT)
ADP Weekly Employment Change (Tentative)
What can we expect from DXY today?
The US Dollar showed resilience, holding steady amid rising bond yields across Asia, Europe, and the US, with the Dollar Index (DXY) trading above key support levels like 99.00 as markets awaited the Federal Reserve’s policy decision and updated economic projections. The dollar strengthened broadly versus majors, rebounding from early weakness due to higher Treasury yields (10-year at 4.17%) and reduced expectations for aggressive Fed rate cuts now leaning toward just two more by the end of 2026, while shrugging off ECB hawkishness and positioning ahead of the FOMC meeting.
Central Bank Notes:
- The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.50%–3.75% at its December 9–10, 2025, meeting, marking the third consecutive cut after the October reduction to 3.75%–4.00%
- The Committee continues to pursue maximum employment and 2% inflation goals, with the labor market showing further softening as the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in September 2025 amid modest job gains.
- Officials note persistent downside risks to growth alongside resilient activity, with inflation easing to 3.0% year-over-year CPI in September but remaining elevated due to tariff effects; core PCE stands at around 2.8% as of October.
- Economic activity grew at a 3.8% annualized pace in Q2 2025 per revised estimates, though Q3 and Q4 face headwinds from trade tensions, fiscal restraint, and data disruptions like the government shutdown.
- September’s Summary of Economic Projections forecasts 2025 unemployment at a median 4.5%, with PCE inflation near 3.0% and core PCE at 3.1%, signaling a gradual disinflation path; updates expected on December 10 may adjust for higher unemployment and lower growth.
- The Committee maintained its data-dependent approach, noting a softening labor market and inflation above the 2% target, while deciding to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.50%-3.75%. Dissent persisted, with multiple members opposing the cut or advocating for a hold, reflecting divisions similar to recent meetings.
- The FOMC confirmed the conclusion of its quantitative tightening program effective December 1, 2025, with Treasury rolloff caps at $5 billion per month and agency MBS caps at $35 billion per month to ensure ample reserves and market stability.
- The next meeting is scheduled for 27 to 28 January 2026.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium bearish
Gold (XAU)
Key news events today
JOLTS Job Openings (3:00 pm GMT)
ADP Weekly Employment Change (Tentative)
What can we expect from Gold today?
Gold prices hovered around $4,195-$4,196 per ounce, marking a modest recovery of about 0.12-0.13% from the prior day amid a softer US dollar and heightened expectations for a near-term Federal Reserve rate cut. Ongoing geopolitical tensions, though caution prevailed ahead of US economic data like nonfarm payrolls. Predictions suggest potential upside toward $4,245 or higher if rate-cut bets firm up, with buying dips recommended amid fiscal concerns and trade frictions.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish
The Euro (EUR)
Key news events today
No major news event
What can we expect from EUR today?
The Euro (EUR) showed resilience, trading around 1.1645-1.1650 against the USD, near its strongest levels since mid-October, amid hawkish ECB comments and expectations of steady Eurozone rates through 2026, contrasting with anticipated US Federal Reserve cuts. European leaders, including UK PM Keir Starmer, French President Macron, and German Chancellor Merz, reported positive progress on utilizing frozen Russian assets to support Ukraine’s reconstruction, signaling unified economic pressure on Russia.
Central Bank Notes:
- The Governing Council of the ECB kept the three key interest rates unchanged at its 30 October 2025 meeting. The main refinancing rate remains at 2.15%, the marginal lending facility at 2.40%, and the deposit facility at 2.00%. This decision reflects policymakers’ assessment that the current monetary stance remains consistent with medium-term price stability, while incoming data confirm a gradual return of inflation towards the target.
- Recent indicators point to stable price dynamics. Headline inflation remains near the 2% mark, with energy prices contained and food inflation easing slightly after earlier supply bottlenecks. Wage growth continues to moderate, contributing to the slowdown in domestic cost pressures. The ECB reiterated its commitment to a data-driven, meeting-by-meeting approach and emphasized flexibility amid uncertain global financial conditions.
- Eurosystem staff projections have not been materially altered since September. Headline inflation averages remain at 2.0% for 2025, 1.8% for 2026, and 2.0% for 2027. Recent softening in producer prices and subdued pipeline pressures suggest limited upside risks to inflation, though geopolitical tensions and potential commodity shocks continue to pose uncertainties to the outlook.
- Euro area GDP growth remains on track with earlier forecasts, projected at 1.1% for 2025, 1.1% for 2026, and 1.4% for 2027. Forward-looking indicators, including PMIs and industrial sentiment surveys, signal some stabilization in activity following weakness in the third quarter. Public investment and recovering export activity are expected to offset softer private sector demand in the near term.
- The labor market remains resilient, with unemployment rates at multi-decade lows and participation rates strong. Real income growth continues to support household spending, even as consumption growth normalizes from earlier highs. Financing conditions remain favorable, supported by stable banking-sector liquidity and improved credit demand among small and medium-sized firms.
- Business sentiment remains mixed, reflecting lingering uncertainty over global trade policy and the path of US tariffs. However, easing supply chain costs and improved export competitiveness due to softer exchange rates are providing some relief to manufacturing and external-oriented sectors.
- The Governing Council reaffirmed that future decisions will depend on an integrated assessment of incoming data—covering inflation trends, financial conditions, and the state of policy transmission. The Council emphasized that no pre-set path for rates exists; keeping all options open should the economic outlook shift markedly.
- Balance sheet reduction continues smoothly, with holdings under the APP and PEPP declining as reinvestments have ceased. The ECB confirmed that the pace of portfolio runoff remains in line with its previously communicated normalization plan, supporting a gradual withdrawal of monetary accommodation in a predictable manner.
- The next meeting is on 17 to 18 December 2025
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish
The Swiss Franc (CHF)
Key news events today
No major news event
What can we expect from CHF today?
The USD/CHF exchange rate stood at approximately 0.8058 as of December 8, marking a slight 0.08% daily increase amid anticipation for the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) policy decision, with the franc holding near multi-year highs around 0.80 per USD. Traders are positioning ahead of the SNB and Federal Reserve rate announcements, with USD/CHF climbing to a one-week high near 0.8072, reflecting a modest USD rebound and safe-haven flows into CHF amid global uncertainty
Central Bank Notes:
- The SNB maintained its key policy rate at 0% during its meeting on 25 September 2025, pausing a sequence of six consecutive rate cuts as inflation stabilized and the Swiss franc remained firm.
- Recent data showed a modest rebound in inflation, with Swiss consumer prices rising 0.2% year-on-year in August after staying above zero for three consecutive months; this helped alleviate fears of deflation that were mounting earlier in the year.
- The conditional inflation forecast remains broadly unchanged from June: headline inflation is expected to average 0.2% in 2025, 0.5% in 2026, and 0.7% in 2027. The risk of a negative rate move has diminished for now, but the SNB retains flexibility should inflationary pressures weaken again.
- The global economic outlook has deteriorated further, weighed down by heightened trade tensions—especially with the U.S.—and ongoing uncertainty in key Swiss export markets.
- Swiss GDP growth moderated in Q2 after a strong Q1 boosted by front-loaded U.S. exports. The SNB expects growth to slow and remain subdued, with forecasted GDP expansion between 1% and 1.5% in both 2025 and 2026.
- Labor market sentiment in the Swiss industrial sector has softened on concerns over export competitiveness and potential adjustments to production, but the overall growth outlook stays broadly unchanged
- The SNB reiterated its readiness to respond as needed if deflation risks re-emerge, emphasizing its commitment to medium-term price stability and a robust, transparent communication policy, with the introduction of more detailed monetary policy minutes beginning in October.
- The next meeting is on 11 December 2025.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish
The Pound (GBP)
Key news events today
Monetary Policy Report Hearings (12:15 pm GMT)
What can we expect from GBP today?
The British Pound (GBP) traded around 1.3327 against the USD, showing a minimal change of -0.01% from the prior session while stabilizing near a six-week high after last week’s rally. Markets focused on the upcoming Federal Reserve decision, with the GBP giving back some recent momentum amid expectations of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut and persistent resistance near 1.34.
Central Bank Notes:
- The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) met on 6 November 2025 and voted 7–2 to keep the Bank Rate unchanged at 4.00 percent for a second consecutive meeting. The decision reflects the Committee’s cautious approach as inflation remains above target, but underlying economic momentum continues to weaken. Two members maintained their votes for a 25-basis-point cut, citing further signs of labor-market softening and weak business sentiment.
- The BOE adjusted its guidance on quantitative tightening (QT), maintaining the reduced pace established in September. The planned reduction of UK government bond holdings remains at £67.5 billion over the next 12 months, leaving the current gilt balance near £550 billion. Policymakers described the recalibrated QT path as “appropriate for current market conditions,” emphasizing the importance of liquidity management amid heightened volatility.
- Headline inflation moderated slightly to 3.6 percent in October from 3.8 percent previously, driven by easing food and transport prices. However, core inflation has shown only gradual progress, holding near 3.9 percent. The MPC noted that services inflation and administered energy costs continue to exert pressure, highlighting the challenge of achieving the 2 percent target sustainably. The Committee’s latest projections see inflation falling toward 3 percent by mid-2026, with further downside expected if energy and wage dynamics continue to normalize.
- Economic activity remains subdued. Estimates place Q3 GDP growth close to zero, with both business output and consumer spending restrained. The unemployment rate has edged up to 4.8 percent, while pay growth cooled to just under 5 percent year-on-year. MPC members acknowledged that pay settlements are weakening further, signaling an easing in labor cost pressures as demand softens. Surveys from the manufacturing and services sectors suggest muted hiring intentions through year-end.
- International factors continue to complicate the policy outlook. Fluctuating oil prices—partly linked to renewed Middle East tensions—alongside fragile global demand have contributed to higher market volatility. The MPC reiterated that external shocks, including global food and energy disruptions, could temporarily slow the disinflation path but remain unlikely to derail the medium-term moderation in prices.
- The Committee assessed risks around inflation as balanced. Downside risks arise from sluggish domestic growth and declining real income momentum, while upside risks remain tied to elevated inflation expectations and stubborn services inflation. Policymakers emphasized the need for patience, maintaining that any rate cuts ahead of clear inflation progress could undermine confidence in policy credibility.
- The MPC’s overall stance remains restrictive but increasingly balanced, with future moves expected to follow a cautious, data-driven trajectory. The Committee reaffirmed that monetary policy will stay tight until there is compelling evidence that inflation is returning to the 2 percent target on a durable basis.
- The next meeting is on 18 December 2025.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish
The Canadian Dollar (CAD)
Key news events today
No major news event
What can we expect from CAD today?
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) traded slightly stronger against the USD, with the USD/CAD exchange rate at 1.3851-1.3852, reflecting a minor 0.04% decline from the prior session amid broader USD weakness. This follows recent gains driven by resilient Canadian employment data that beat estimates, pushing the CAD to 10-week highs earlier in the week and reducing expectations for aggressive Bank of Canada rate cuts.
Central Bank Notes:
- The Council noted that U.S. tariff tensions have eased slightly following early progress in bilateral discussions, though the external trade environment remains fragile. Businesses continue to hold back on long-term investment, with the Bank highlighting that sustained clarity on U.S. trade policy is needed to restore confidence.
- The Bank acknowledged that uncertainty persists despite the softer U.S. tone, as incoming data show limited improvement in export orders. The manufacturing sector has stabilized but remains below pre-2024 output levels, reflecting weak global demand and cautious corporate spending.
- Canada’s economy showed tentative signs of recovery in early Q4, with GDP estimated to expand by 0.3% in October after two quarters of contraction. Mining and energy activity strengthened modestly, aided by steady crude demand, while goods exports posted a fractional gain.
- Service sector growth remained uneven, supported mainly by tourism-related and technology services. However, retail spending and household consumption were subdued, constrained by slower job creation and lingering consumer caution. The Bank judged overall momentum as fragile but improving marginally.
- Housing activity showed modest reacceleration in major urban markets as mortgage rates stabilized near record lows. Nonetheless, affordability pressures and stricter lending standards continue to limit overall resale volumes, resulting in only a gradual recovery in the housing sector.
- Headline CPI inflation rose to 2.1% in October, reaching the Bank’s target for the first time in six months. Higher energy prices and a modest uptick in food and shelter costs drove the increase. Core inflation measures remained stable, suggesting underlying price pressures are contained.
- The Governing Council reiterated its data-dependent stance, indicating that the current policy rate remains appropriate amid tentative growth and balanced inflation risks. Officials noted that while additional stimulus is not ruled out, the emphasis has shifted toward monitoring the sustainability of the recovery rather than immediate rate adjustments.
- The next meeting is on 17 to 18 December 2025.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish
Oil
Key news events today
API Crude Oil Stock (8:30 pm GMT)
What can we expect from Oil today?
Oil prices edged down slightly, with Brent at $62.47 (down 0.03%) and WTI at $58.84 (down 0.07%), extending losses triggered by Iraq’s resumption of production at the massive West Qurna 2 oilfield, which contributes about 0.5% to global supply. Traders remained cautious after WTI’s biggest three-week decline, influenced by equity market weakness and expectations of oversupply.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish
