IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 6 May 2024
What happened in the Asia session?
The Caixin Services PMI report showed China’s services activity continuing to grow at the start of the second quarter. April’s PMI reading came in line with the estimate of 52.5 as new business grew at the fastest pace in nearly a year while new export business also rose at a faster rate to boost business confidence. A sustained revival of the Chinese economy could spur demand for crude oil and potentially provide a much-needed support for this commodity. Prices for WTI oil stabilized around $78.40 per barrel before climbing higher and could retrace above the $79-mark as the day progresses.
What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?
There are not one but two FOMC officials speaking later today. Up first is Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin who is due to speak about the economic outlook in South Carolina. After which, Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams speaks at the Milken Institute Global Conference in Beverly Hills – audience questions are expected for both events.
Although inflation was hot in the first quarter of 2024, the recent advance estimate for first-quarter GDP and last week’s BLS employment report are suggesting that growth could be stagnating in the US. If either official tilts on the dovish side when posed with questions on monetary policy action, the dollar could experience another round of sell-off.
The Dollar Index (DXY)
Key news events today
FOMC Member Barkin Speaks (4:50 pm GMT)
FOMC Member Williams Speaks (5:00 pm GMT)
What can we expect from DXY today?
There are not one but two FOMC officials speaking later today. Up first is Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin who is due to speak about the economic outlook in South Carolina. After which, Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams speaks at the Milken Institute Global Conference in Beverly Hills – audience questions are expected for both events.
Although inflation was hot in the first quarter of 2024, the recent advance estimate for first-quarter GDP and last week’s BLS employment report are suggesting that growth could be stagnating in the US. If either official tilts on the dovish side when posed with questions on monetary policy action, the dollar could experience another round of sell-off.
Central Bank Notes:
- The Federal Funds Rate target range remained unchanged at 5.25% to 5.50% for the sixth meeting in a row.
- The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run and judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals have moved toward better balance over the past year.
- The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated and in recent months, there has been a lack of further progress toward the Committee’s 2% inflation objective.
- Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while job gains have remained strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low.
- In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals.
- The Committee’s assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labour market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.
- In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities. Beginning in June, the Committee will slow the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $60 billion to $25 billion.
- The Committee will maintain the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at $35 billion and will reinvest any principal payments in excess of this cap into Treasury securities.
- Next meeting runs from 11 to 12 June 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
Gold (XAU)
Key news events today
FOMC Member Barkin Speaks (4:50 pm GMT)
FOMC Member Williams Speaks (5:00 pm GMT)
What can we expect from Gold today?
There are not one but two FOMC officials speaking later today. Up first is Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin who is due to speak about the economic outlook in South Carolina. After which, Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams speaks at the Milken Institute Global Conference in Beverly Hills – audience questions are expected for both events.
Although inflation was hot in the first quarter of 2024, the recent advance estimate for first-quarter GDP and last week’s BLS employment report are suggesting that growth could be stagnating in the US. If either official tilts on the dovish side when posed with questions on monetary policy action, the dollar could experience another round of sell-off – a move that could lift prices for gold.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
The Australian Dollar (AUD)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from AUD today?
Last Friday’s disappointing employment report from the US drove the Aussie as high as 0.6649, gaining almost 70 pips before reversing sharply to close at 0.6609. AUD/USD opened at 0.6614 this morning to slide lower and looks set to dip under 0.6600 during the Asia session.
Central Bank Notes:
- The RBA kept the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35%, marking the seventh pause out of the last eight board meetings.
- The headline monthly CPI indicator was steady at 3.4% over the year to January, with momentum easing over recent months, driven by moderating goods inflation. Services inflation remains elevated, and is moderating at a more gradual pace.
- The central forecasts are for inflation to return to the target range of 2–3% in 2025, and to the midpoint in 2026.
- While recent data indicate that inflation is easing, it remains high. The Board expects that it will be some time yet before inflation is sustainably in the target range.
- The path of interest rates that will best ensure that inflation returns to target in a reasonable timeframe remains uncertain and the Board is not ruling anything in or out.
- Next meeting is on 7 May 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from NZD today?
The Kiwi surged as high as 0.6048 to gain almost 70 following last Friday’s weak employment report in the US. However, the move was short-lived as it reversed sharply to close to 0.6009. NZD/USD opened at 0.6007 this morning and slid under 0.6000 – overhead pressures are building for this currency pair.
Central Bank Notes:
- The Monetary Policy Committee kept the OCR unchanged at 5.50% for the sixth meeting in a row.
- The Committee remains confident that the current level of the OCR is contributing to an easing in capacity pressures to ensure inflation returns to target.
- However, current consumer price inflation remains above the Committee’s 1 to 3% target range. A restrictive monetary policy stance remains necessary to further reduce capacity pressures and inflation.
- The Committee discussed upside risks to the inflation outlook: persistent services inflation remains a risk and goods price inflation remains elevated while anticipated near-term increases to local government rates, insurance, and utility costs, could also further slow the decline in headline inflation.
- The Committee discussed downside risks to the inflation outlook: ongoing restrictive monetary policy in an environment of weak global growth could lead to a more rapid decline in inflation than expected. Business and consumer confidence remain particularly weak which could lead to more unemployment and financial stress than expected while structural challenges facing the economy in China remain a concern given its importance for the global economy and for New Zealand’s trade.
- Next meeting is on 10 July 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
The Japanese Yen (JPY)
Key news events today
Children’s Day Holiday
What can we expect from JPY today?
Last Friday’s disappointing employment report from the US as well as intervention measures by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) caused USD/JPY to tumble hard as it lost 3.4%, shedding nearly 500 pips in the process. The recent intervention measures by the BoJ on 29th April and 1st May appear to have made some progress in restraining the astronomical rise of USD/JPY – the BoJ is thought to have spent close to $59 billion this week as it attempts to prop up the yen. This currency pair opened at 152.85 this morning to rise strongly and climb above 153.50 – long traders should be wary of any further intervention actions by the BoJ and manage risk accordingly.
Central Bank Notes:
- The Bank considers that the policy framework of Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing (QQE) with Yield Curve Control and the negative interest rate policy to date have fulfilled their roles. With the price stability target of 2%, it will conduct monetary policy as appropriate, guiding the short-term interest rate as a primary policy tool.
- The Bank of Japan decided on the following measures:
- The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0 to 0.1% while continuing its JGB purchases with broadly the same amount as before.
- In addition, the Bank will discontinue purchases of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and Japan real estate investment trusts (J-REITs) and will also gradually reduce the amount of purchases of CP and corporate bonds and will discontinue the purchases in about one year.
- In a quarterly outlook, the committee revised higher CPI prints for FY 2024 to 2.8% from January’s projections of 2.4%, due to the waning effects of higher import prices and fewer government support measures.
- For 2025, the board expects core inflation to hit 1.9%, slightly higher than its earlier estimates of 1.8%, reflecting a recent rise in oil prices.
- Policymakers cut their 2023 GDP growth forecast to 1.3% from 1.8% and for FY 2024, the bank also slashed its GDP outlook to 0.8% from 1.2%, mainly reflecting lower private consumption.
- Next meeting is on 14 June 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish
The Euro (EUR)
Key news events today
Services PMI (8:00 am GMT)
What can we expect from EUR today?
The final reading for Services PMI by S&P Global will be released today which is expected to show an unchanged reading of 52.9. New orders saw their fastest increase since May last year, rising for the second consecutive month while the pace of employment growth hit a ten-month high. The Euro opened at 1.0759 this morning and it could remain elevated as the day progresses.
Central Bank Notes:
- The ECB kept the three key interest rates unchanged for a fifth consecutive meeting, keeping the main refinancing rate on hold at 4.50%.
- Inflation has continued to fall, led by lower food and goods price inflation with most measures of underlying inflation easing, wage growth is gradually moderating, and firms are absorbing part of the rise in labour costs in their profits.
- Financing conditions remain restrictive and the past interest rate increases continue to weigh on demand, which is helping to push down inflation but domestic price pressures are strong and are keeping services price inflation high.
- The Governing Council is determined to ensure that inflation returns to its 2% medium-term target in a timely manner and if the Council’s updated assessment of the inflation outlook, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission were to further increase its confidence that inflation is converging to the target in a sustained manner, it would be appropriate to reduce the current level of monetary policy restriction.
- Next meeting is on 6 June 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
The Swiss Franc (CHF)
Key news events today
SNB Chairman Jordan Speaks (12:25 pm GMT)
What can we expect from CHF today?
Swiss National Bank (SNB) Chairman Thomas Jordan will be speaking on the SNB’s Project Helvetia III at the BIS Innovation Summit in Basel. Project Helvetia III is a pilot for integrating wholesale central bank digital currency (wCBDC) into the core banking systems of the central bank and commercial banks. Chairman Jordan may also use this opportunity and shed some insights on the central bank’s next course of policy action at its upcoming meeting next month. USD/CHF was trading around 0.9050 as Asian markets came online and looks set to edge higher today.
Central Bank Notes:
- The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 25 basis points, going from 1.75% to 1.50% in March.
- For some months now, inflation has been back below 2% and thus in the range the SNB equates with price stability.
- According to the new forecast, inflation is also likely to remain in this range over the next few years.
- The forecast puts average annual inflation at 1.4% for 2024, 1.2% for 2025 and 1.1% for 2026, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate is 1.5% over the entire forecast horizon.
- Swiss GDP growth was moderate in the fourth quarter of last year and it is likely to remain modest in the coming quarters.
- Overall, Switzerland’s GDP is likely to grow by around 1% this year.
- Next meeting is on 20 June 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish
The Pound (GBP)
Key news events today
Bank Holiday
What can we expect from GBP today?
The Pound spiked as high as 1.2634 following last Friday’s weak employment report in the US before promptly reversing to give up all the initial gains. GBP/USD closed at 1.2547 last Friday and it gapped lower at 1.2536 as markets re-opened this morning. This currency pair was rising towards 1.2550 and it could remain elevated today.
Central Bank Notes:
- The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 8-to-1 to maintain its Official Bank Rate at 5.25% for the fifth consecutive meeting.
- One member preferred to reduce the Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 5.0%.
- Twelve-month CPI inflation fell to 3.4% in February from 4.0% in January and December while Services consumer price inflation has declined but remains elevated, at 6.1% in February.
- CPI inflation is projected to fall to slightly below the 2% target in 2024 Q2, marginally weaker than previously expected owing to the freeze in fuel duty announced in the Budget.
- In the February Report projection, CPI inflation had been expected to fall temporarily to the 2% target in 2024 Q2 before increasing again in Q3 and Q4, to around 2.75%.
- Having declined through the second half of last year, UK GDP and market sector output are expected to start growing again during the first half of this year while the fiscal measures in Spring Budget 2024 are likely to increase the level of GDP by around 0.25% over coming years.
- Next meeting is on 9 May 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
The Canadian Dollar (CAD)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from CAD today?
Last Friday’s disappointing employment report from the US caused USD/CAD to dive as low as 1.3609 before reversing strongly to close at 1.3685 last Friday. This currency pair gapped lower at 1.3676 as markets re-opened this morning but proceeded to fill it quickly as it climbed strongly towards the threshold of 1.3700.
Central Bank Notes:
- The Bank of Canada held its target for the overnight rate at 5.0% for the fifth meeting in a row while continuing its policy of quantitative tightening.
- Canada’s economy stalled in the second half of last year and the economy moved into excess supply but economic growth is forecasted to pick up in 2024. Overall, the Bank forecasts GDP growth of 1.5% in 2024, 2.2% in 2025, and 1.9% in 2026.
- CPI inflation slowed to 2.8% in February, with easing in price pressures becoming more broad-based across goods and services. However, shelter price inflation is still very elevated, driven by growth in rent and mortgage interest costs.
- Core measures of inflation, which had been running around 3.5%, slowed to just over 3% in February, and 3-month annualized rates are suggesting downward momentum. The Bank expects CPI inflation to be close to 3% during the first half of this year, move below 2.5% in the second half, and reach the 2% inflation target in 2025.
- The Governing Council is particularly watching the evolution of core inflation, and continues to focus on the balance between demand and supply in the economy, inflation expectations, wage growth, and corporate pricing behaviour.
- While inflation is still too high and risks remain, CPI and core inflation have eased further in recent months and the Council will be looking for evidence that this downward momentum is sustained.
- Next meeting is on 5 June 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish
Oil
Key news events today
Caixin Services PMI (1:45 am GMT)
What can we expect from Oil today?
The Caixin Services PMI report showed China’s services activity continuing to grow at the start of the second quarter. April’s PMI reading came in line with the estimate of 52.5 as new business grew at the fastest pace in nearly a year while new export business also rose at a faster rate to boost business confidence. A sustained revival of the Chinese economy could spur demand for crude oil and potentially provide a much-needed support for this commodity. Prices for WTI oil stabilized around $78.40 per barrel before climbing higher and could retrace above the $79-mark as the day progresses.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
