Global Markets:
- Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 1.18%, Shanghai Composite down 0.22% Hang Seng down 0.49% ASX up 0.06%
- Commodities : Gold at $5,118.45 (-0.14%) Silver at $84.825 (-0.33%), Brent Oil at $100.50 (0.05%), WTI Oil at $95.47 (-0.24%)
- Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.258, UK 10-year yield at 4.7780, Germany 10-year yield at 2.9378
News & Data:
- (USD) Unemployment Claims 213K to 214K expected
Markets Update:
Asia-Pacific markets opened lower on Friday as oil prices surged amid renewed concerns that a prolonged conflict in the Middle East could disrupt global energy supplies and trigger a wider economic slowdown.
In a speech late Thursday, Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said the Strait of Hormuz — a crucial route for global oil shipments — should remain closed, adding that Tehran could open additional fronts in the conflict if tensions persist. Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy commander Alireza Tangsiri reinforced the warning on social media, threatening “the harshest blows to the aggressor enemy.”
Amid rising geopolitical risks, bettors on the prediction market Kalshi increased their wagers on the possibility of a U.S. recession this year, pushing the probability to 32%, the highest level in 2026.
Oil prices rallied sharply. International benchmark Brent crude surged 9.2% to settle at $100.46 per barrel, its first close above $100 since August 2022. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures climbed 9.7% to $95.73.
Market strategist Rob Thummel of Tortoise Capital told CNBC that oil prices may remain elevated in the near term due to uncertainty surrounding the conflict. However, he expects prices to ease later in the year if oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz resume and global supply improves.
Meanwhile, investors are also awaiting key U.S. inflation data, with economists expecting the personal consumption expenditures price index to rise 2.9% year-on-year.
Upcoming Events:
- 12:30 PM GMT – CAD Employment Change
- 12:30 PM GMT – CAD Unemployment Rate
- 12:30 PM GMT – USD Core PCE Price Index m/m
- 12:30 PM GMT – USD Prelim GDP q/q
