IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 04 March 2026
What happened in the U.S. session?
The U.S. session saw a toxic mix of hotter-than-expected PPI (0.8% MoM), resilient ISM PMI (52.4), and oil spikes from Iran tensions triggering broad selloffs in stocks, yield rises, and USD/gold gains, most impacting energy, equities, bonds, and the dollar amid revived inflation worries.
What does it mean for the Asia Session?
Asian traders should watch persistent Middle‑East‑driven risk‑off and oil‑driven moves, China’s Two Sessions‑driven growth‑target and policy signals, and key data from South Korea (inflation, exports) and China (PMI), all of which will shape whether Asian equities, currencies, and bond markets remain defensive or start to disinflame from the recent geopolitical shock.
The Dollar Index (DXY)
Key news events today
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (1:15 pm GMT)
ISM Services PMI (3:00 pm GMT)
What can we expect from DXY today?
The US dollar maintained a cautiously bullish tone amid geopolitical risks from the US-Israel strike on Iran, with the DXY at 98.70 after a slight uptick, buoyed by higher natural gas prices pressuring the euro; however, analysts anticipate ongoing softness toward the mid-90s this year due to Fed inaction, Trump’s policy ambiguities, and eroding safe-haven demand, contrasting its recent monthly recovery.
Central Bank Notes:
- The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to hold the federal funds rate target range steady at 3.50%–3.75% at its January 27–28, 2026, meeting, marking the second consecutive pause after three 25-basis-point cuts in late 2025.
- The Committee continues to pursue maximum employment and 2% inflation goals, with the labor market remaining soft as the unemployment rate stood at 4.4% in December 2025 amid modest job gains of 50,000.
- Officials note balanced risks to growth and employment alongside sticky inflation, with CPI at 2.7% year-over-year in December 2025 and core PCE at 2.8% due to tariffs and housing pressures; headline PCE at 2.6%.
- Economic activity expanded robustly at 4.4% annualized in Q3 2025, with Q4 estimates around 5% per Atlanta Fed GDPNow, supported by consumer spending despite prior trade tensions and shutdown effects.
- December 2025’s Summary of Economic Projections forecasts 2025 unemployment at a median of 4.5%, 2026 GDP growth at 2.3%, and core PCE at 2.5% (down from prior 2.6%), with the dot plot signaling one more cut in 2026; January updates may reflect resilient Q4 growth.
- The Committee maintained its data-dependent approach, noting a stable but soft labor market and inflation above target, while holding rates steady at 3.50%-3.75%; dissents likely persist amid divisions on the pace of easing.
- The FOMC continues its adjusted quantitative tightening post-December 1, 2025, conclusion of the prior program, with Treasury rolloff caps at $5 billion per month and agency MBS at $35 billion per month to maintain ample reserves.
- The next meeting is scheduled for 17 to 18 March 2026.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
Gold (XAU)
Key news events today
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (1:15 pm GMT)
ISM Services PMI (3:00 pm GMT)
What can we expect from Gold today?
Gold prices experienced volatility amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic pressures. Recent reports indicate spot gold traded around $5,113-$5,415 per ounce, down from peaks near $5,594 earlier in the year, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar and fading expectations for immediate Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish
The Australian Dollar (AUD)
Key news events today
GDP q/q (12:30 am GMT)
What can we expect from AUD today?
The Australian Dollar (AUD) has shown resilience amid global uncertainties as of March 4, 2026, trading around 0.7094-0.7100 against the USD after minor pullbacks from recent highs near 0.71. Key drivers include hotter-than-expected Australian CPI data and hawkish signals from RBA Governor Michele Bullock, who indicated the March policy meeting remains “live” for a potential rate hike, boosting market pricing for about 34-40 basis points of tightening by year-end.
Central Bank Notes:
- The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to hold its cash rate at 3.85% at the March 16-17, 2026 policy meeting, following the widely anticipated 25 basis point hike to 3.85% in early February after persistent inflation pressures from late 2025. While some banks like CBA, NAB, and Westpac now forecast a further 25 basis point rise to 4.10% as soon as May if inflation data remains sticky, consensus tilts toward a pause in March to assess incoming monthly CPI and labor market signals. The February hike reversed prior cuts, entering mildly restrictive territory amid capacity pressures, with the board emphasizing data dependence.
- Inflation remains elevated, with December 2025 CPI at 3.8% year-on-year and trimmed mean at 3.3%, above the 2–3% target midpoint. RBA’s February Statement revised forecasts higher, projecting trimmed-mean inflation to peak in mid-2026 above 3% and remain elevated through early 2027, driven by services, housing, and demand resilience despite some monthly cooling, such as January’s 0.2% MoM gauge. Monthly CPI data continues to highlight core stickiness beyond energy rebates, delaying the target return to late 2027 or beyond.
- January 2026 monthly indicators showed modest easing, but headline CPI risks upward surprises from housing (up recently) and services amid firm domestic demand. Trimmed mean pressures persist from wage growth and capacity constraints, with consumer expectations ticking to 5% YoY in February surveys. Enhanced monthly reporting sharpens vigilance on potential broad-based pick-up.
- The labor market shows softening, with unemployment around 4.1-4.4%, down slightly to 4.1% in December, but unit labor costs are elevated due to subdued productivity. Household spending faces higher borrowing costs post-hike, yet private demand recovery sustains capacity strains. Vulnerabilities persist amid resilient employment dynamics.
- Global growth modestly revised up but tempered by geopolitics and commodity volatility; policy now restrictive post-February, with the RBA balancing inflation against employment risks. Data from the monthly CPI and Q1 GDP will guide, amid household debt sensitivities.
- Sustained restrictive stance post-February anchors inflation return to target, upholding dual mandate with flexibility to new risks like further inflation upticks.
- Markets price a March hold at 3.85%, with big four banks split: CBA, NAB, Westpac eye May hike to 4.10% if persistence continues, while others see limited upside unless acceleration. Upcoming monthly CPI pivotal for Q2 trajectory.
- Policy vigilance counters inflation stickiness against household fragilities and global uncertainties, reaffirming adaptability under dual mandate.
- Base case favors March hold with risks tilted hawkish for further hikes if data is hot; monthly indicators key to 2026 path.
- The next meeting is on 5 to 6 May 2026.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)
Key news events today
No major news event
What can we expect from NZD today?
The NZD/USD weakened modestly to 0.5925 as of March 3, reflecting RBNZ’s cautious stance under Governor Breman, who sees room for growth without urgent rate hikes amid global trade tensions from US tariffs. Domestic policy remains accommodative at a 2.25% cash rate, tempering upside despite longer-term resilience, with traders watching for any fresh signals on March 4.
Central Bank Notes:
- The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 2.25% at its 18 February 2026 meeting, as widely expected, maintaining a unanimous decision and emphasizing a balance between supporting the nascent economic recovery and ensuring inflation returns sustainably to the 2% midpoint of the 1–3% target band.
- The Committee judged that the prior cumulative easing of 325 basis points provides ongoing stimulus, warranting patience amid uneven recovery signals, while noting readiness to normalize policy gradually as inflation pressures subside and activity strengthens.
- Headline CPI inflation, recently at 3.1%, is projected to dip back within the target band in the coming quarter—supported by spare capacity, modest wage growth, and declining food/fuel prices—before reaching 2.0% by mid-2027, with two-year-ahead business expectations edging up to 2.37%.
- Domestic demand shows gradual stabilization with softer household spending and a muted housing market, partially offset by easing retail rates boosting budgets, though cautious consumption, low migration, and a weak labour market continue to cap services inflation as wage moderation takes hold.
- Financial conditions remain accommodative as lower OCR flows through to borrowing costs, aiding mortgage approvals and housing sentiment, but business credit growth stays subdued amid uneven confidence and sensitivity to the recovery’s pace.
- Recent indicators point to weak but steadying GDP momentum in an early-stage rebound from 2025 lows, with high-frequency data showing gradual broadening despite persistent headwinds from elevated costs, fragile sentiment, and subdued investment.
- External risks are now viewed as balanced rather than downside-skewed, with a supportive global backdrop offsetting prior concerns over China and US trade policy, while a lower NZ dollar aids exports and tradables inflation.
- Looking to mid-2026, the MPC adopted a data-dependent stance with forecasts signaling OCR hikes likely from late 2026 or early 2027—potentially as soon as December if activity or inflation exceeds projections—while keeping policy accommodative for now if the gradual recovery aligns with expectations.
- The next meeting is on 7 April 2026.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish
The Japanese Yen (JPY)
Key news events today
No major news event
What can we expect from JPY today?
The Japanese yen continued to weaken against the US dollar, trading around 157.75 amid ongoing Middle East tensions driving up energy costs, which heavily impact Japan’s import-dependent economy. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama emphasized authorities’ “strong sense of urgency” in monitoring the yen’s decline, keeping currency intervention as a potential option while coordinating with the US, as the USD/JPY pair hit a 5-week low near 157.67 the prior day.
Central Bank Notes:
- The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan meets on 22–23 January 2026, with markets fully expecting the short-term policy rate to remain at 0.75%, following the December 2025 hike, as the bank assesses the impact of prior tightening while emphasizing gradual, data-dependent adjustments.
- The BOJ will continue targeting the uncollateralized overnight call rate around 0.75% and signal that future rate hikes depend on the effects of recent increases on bank lending, corporate financing, and economic activity, with some policymakers eyeing a possible move as early as April.
- JGB purchase tapering proceeds on schedule, with outright purchases reduced by ¥400 billion per quarter through March 2026, then ¥200 billion per quarter from April to June 2026, aiming for around ¥2 trillion monthly in Q1 2027, with flexibility if market conditions worsen.
- Japan’s economy showed recovery signs after the Q3 2025 contraction, with Q4 2025 GDP growth estimated positively amid export strength, though business sentiment among manufacturers softened to a six-month low of +7 in January 2026 due to weaker overseas demand.
- Core consumer inflation (excluding fresh food) eased to 2.3% year-on-year in December 2025 Tokyo CPI, down from 2.8-3.0% peaks earlier, while core-core (excluding fresh food and energy) stood at 2.6%, both above the 2% target but with moderating cost pressures.
- Near-term input costs continue easing from faded import surges, but services inflation and steady wage gains with early 2026 negotiations targeting 5% hikes sustain price momentum; medium-term inflation expectations remain anchored above 2%, tilting upside risks.
- In the coming quarters, real growth may moderate below potential amid tighter conditions and yen weakness, but accommodative real rates, real wage gains, and fiscal support are poised to bolster private consumption and investment recovery.
- Medium-term, stabilizing overseas demand and tight labor markets should drive wage growth and keep core inflation gradually around or above 2%, allowing cautious rate normalization if financial conditions stay supportive.
- The next meeting is on 18 to 19 March 2026.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Strong Bearish
Oil
Key news events today
EIA Crude Oil Inventories (2:30 pm GMT)
What can we expect from Oil today?
Oil prices continue rallying above $85 (Brent) amid a fourth day of US-Israeli-Iran war, Strait of Hormuz blockages, and refinery hits, offsetting OPEC+’s limited April increase; markets brace for prolonged supply fears as stocks falter and analysts eye $100/barrel risks.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Strong Bullish
