Monday 17th May 2021: Technical Outlook and Review

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EUR/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart, we can see that prices are seeing further limited upside before it reaches our resistance area at 1.22000 – 1.22800. On the daily chart, prices are near our resistance area at 1.2200 where we could see a limited upside here. 

On the H4 timeframe, prices are facing bullish pressure from our support level at 1.20631. Technical indicators are showing room for further bullish momentum as well. We could see limited upside above this level, with 1.22000 as our next resistance target. Failure to hold above the 1.20631 support could see a swing towards our next support target at 1.19893. 

Areas of consideration:

  • 1.22000 resistance area found on H4 time frame
  • 1.20631 support area found on H4 time frame

GBP/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart, we can see that prices are facing bullish pressure from our ascending trend line and support at 1.36622 where we could see a further upside above this level to our resistance target at 1.43000, in line with the 78.6% fibonacci extension. The daily time frame echoes the same bullish view as well where we could see a limited upside above our support level at 1.38000 with 1.43000 as our resistance target. 

On the H4 timeframe, prices are facing bullish pressure from our support at 1.39871, in line with the 50% fibonacci retracement where we could see a further upside above this level with 1.42200 as our resistance level. Failure to hold above our support level at 1.39871 could see price swing towards our next support target at 1.39230. 

Areas of consideration:

  • 1.42200 resistance area found on H4 time frame
  • 1.39871 support area found on H4 timeframe

AUD/USD:

From the Weekly timeframe, price approached the resistance level at 78.6% fibonacci retracement level of 0.79018, before pushing away.  From the daily timeframe, we see that price bounced from the horizontal swing low level at 0.77014. Therefore, both Weekly and Daily are showing that price is trending within this range of support and resistance.

On the H4 timeframe, we see price reversed from the 78.6% fibonacci retracement level and is making its way up towards the 0.78 major level, in line with 61.8% fibonacci retracement and horizontal graphical overlap. From here, we may expect a pause in the market before taking the next course of action.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 is returning to the 0.78 major level, in line with 61.8% fibonacci retracement.
  • Daily and weekly time frames showing price trending between resistances and support areas.

USD/JPY

From the weekly timeframe, prices are facing resistance from horizontal swing high resistance which coincides with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension, taking support from 104.224 level which is in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension. On the daily time frame, prices are facing support from 108.425 level which coincides with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 50% Fibonacci extension. Prices might bounce towards daily resistance level 110.978 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Daily EMA is also below prices, showing a bullish pressure for prices. 

On the H4 timeframe, prices have broken out of descending trendline resistance and came back to retest the descending trendline resistance and is taking support from the daily support level of 108.425 level. Prices might push up towards 110.978. If prices push down further, prices might take support from 106.916 level which is also in line with 161.8% retracement. 

 Areas of consideration:

  • On the H4, prices might push up towards 110.978 daily resistance level
  • Price are taking support on 108.904 level on both the daily and weekly timeframe

USD/CAD:

The weekly chart shows price breaking below the support level at 1.22647, in line with the 78.6% fibonacci extension. From here, we may see a further drop down towards the horizontal swing low from 11th May (2015).

In the daily time frame, we can see price making a reversal towards the horizontal graphical overlap in line with weekly resistance at 1.22647 where it may show potential reaction from here. The H4 timeframe we see that price has bounced from the 78.6% fibonacci retracement level and may be heading higher towards the previous swing high and eventually -27% fibonacci retracement within touching distance of 1.22703 in line with Weekly and Daily resistance.

Areas of consideration:

  • The weekly and daily time frame shows a break in the strong support level and may return to retest.
  • On H4, price may bounce head higher towards 1.22703

USD/CHF:

USD/CHF is now testing the weekly 0.89800 support, in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension. The daily chart shows that price is now holding below the key daily 0.92300 support-turned-resistance, and has also broken below the ascending trendline support-turned-resistance. The weekly 0.89800 support level is a key level to watch.

On the H4 chart, we can see that price has reversed at the 0.90800 resistance, in line with 127.2% Fibonacci extension and horizontal pullback resistance, and is now pushing lower to retest the 0.89800 support. We also note that price is holding below the descending trendline resistance and Ichimoku cloud resistance, showing bearish pressure in line with our analysis. In this scenario, should price break below the 0.89800 support, it could swing towards the next weekly support at 0.87600. Otherwise, we could see price pullback again to retest the 0.90800 resistance.

Areas of consideration:

  • The 0.89800 weekly support is a key intraday level to watch.
  • Price is facing bearish pressure as it holds below the Ichimoku cloud and descending trendline resistance.

Dow Jones Industrial Average:

On the weekly chart, price traded sideways. With price holding above long term moving average, we can expect further bullish pressure above 32765 support. On the daily chart, price pulled back lower and reacted above moving average and also above ascending trendline support. It is possible to see buyers add to their longs above 33800 support with upside target at 35970 resistance. Otherwise, price could also swing the other way towards 32180 support.

On the H4, prices have tested and bounced above moving average support. We might see a limited upside push above 33800 support towards 35090 resistance. Otherwise, failure to hold above 33800 should see price swing the other way towards 32696.

Areas of consideration:

  • Technical indicators across all timeframes confirm bullish momentum

XAU/USD (GOLD):

On the weekly timeframe, price pushed higher, closing above previous weekly resistance. We could see renewed bullish pressure this coming week. On the daily, price is still capped below daily descending trendline resistance. Price could see bearish pressure below 1850 resistance. Otherwise, a daily close and break above 1850 could see price push higher towards weekly resistance at 1965.

On the H4, price coming close to test 1850 daily resistance. A break of this resistance level could see price push higher towards 1867 resistance. Otherwise, we may see sellers adding to their shorts with a possible downside target at 1800.

Areas of consideration:

  • 1850 resistance level on the H4 time frame

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