{"id":87922,"date":"2026-07-09T17:27:20","date_gmt":"2026-07-09T07:27:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/?p=87922"},"modified":"2026-07-09T17:27:21","modified_gmt":"2026-07-09T07:27:21","slug":"ic-markets-global-asia-fundamental-forecast-09-july-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/ic-markets-global-asia-fundamental-forecast-09-july-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"IC Markets Global &#8211; Asia Fundamental Forecast | 09 July 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>IC Markets Global &#8211; Asia Fundamental Forecast | 09 July 2026<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What happened in the U.S. session?<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong>Renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the release of the latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes, and a small batch of U.S. economic data. Markets initially adopted a risk-off tone after President Donald Trump stated that the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding was &#8220;over&#8221; following renewed hostilities, sending crude oil prices sharply higher and lifting the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields. However, sentiment improved later in the session after comments suggested the U.S. was not seeking a broader military escalation, allowing equities to recover part of their losses while oil retreated from its intraday highs.<br \/><br \/><strong>What does it mean for the Asia Session?<\/strong><br \/><br \/>Asian markets enter Thursday with risk sentiment dominated by escalating Middle East tensions, which have driven oil prices sharply higher and boosted demand for the U.S. dollar. Traders will closely monitor whether higher energy prices continue to fuel inflation concerns and alter expectations for global central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand&#8217;s rate hike has added support to the New Zealand dollar, while technology stocks remain under pressure following weakness in global semiconductor shares.<br \/>\u200b<br \/><strong>The Dollar Index (DXY)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Unemployment Claims (12:30 pm GMT)<br \/><br \/><strong>What can we expect from DXY today?<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong>The U.S. dollar is trading with a firm but cautious tone as markets digest the latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes, rising geopolitical tensions, and expectations for further policy tightening. The minutes from the Fed&#8217;s June meeting showed that while policymakers unanimously kept interest rates unchanged, several officials believed a rate hike could have been justified immediately, and roughly half of policymakers still expect at least one additional rate increase before the end of 2026. The release did not materially change market expectations, leaving the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) fluctuating around the 101.00 level after briefly reaching a one-week high near 101.27.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><br \/><strong>Central Bank Notes:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li>The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) left the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%\u20133.75% at its June 16\u201317, 2026, meeting, marking another pause in the policy cycle. Under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, policymakers signaled a more cautious and hawkish stance as inflation remains above target despite moderating energy prices.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The Committee remains committed to achieving maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2% objective. Labor market conditions have remained relatively stable, with job gains continuing at a moderate pace and the unemployment rate projected to remain near 4.4% through 2026.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Inflation continues to be the primary concern for policymakers. Headline inflation remains elevated, supported by earlier energy-related price pressures and persistent services inflation. The June projections showed higher inflation forecasts than previously expected, leading several officials to favor keeping policy restrictive for longer.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Economic activity continues to expand at a moderate pace. Productivity growth, capital investment, and AI-related spending remain supportive of growth, while consumer spending and housing activity show signs of slowing compared with late 2025 and early 2026.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The June 2026 Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) revealed a more divided Committee. Nine officials projected at least one rate hike during 2026, while others expected rates to remain unchanged or eventually decline. The median outlook shifted toward a higher-for-longer policy path compared with earlier projections.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The Committee emphasized a data-dependent approach and noted that future decisions will depend on incoming inflation, employment, and economic growth data. Officials acknowledged that geopolitical developments and energy markets remain important upside risks to inflation.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The FOMC continues its balance sheet normalization program, maintaining Treasury runoff caps at $5 billion per month and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) runoff caps at $35 billion per month, while ensuring ample reserves remain in the banking system.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The next meeting is scheduled for 28 to 29 July 2026.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Medium Bearish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Gold (XAU)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><br \/><br \/>Unemployment Claims (12:30 pm GMT)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from Gold today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/symbols\/XAUUSD\/?exchange=ICMARKETS\" title=\"\">Gold<\/a> remains under pressure heading into Thursday, after suffering one of its sharpest daily declines in recent weeks. The selloff was driven by a stronger U.S. dollar, rising Treasury yields, and growing expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve could keep monetary policy tighter for longer following a surge in oil prices caused by renewed U.S.-Iran tensions. While geopolitical risks would normally support safe-haven demand for gold, markets are instead focusing on the inflationary impact of higher energy prices, which has increased expectations for additional Fed tightening.<br \/><br \/><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><br \/>Medium Bearish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The Australian Dollar (AUD)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No major news event<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from AUD today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Australian dollar is trading with a cautious but generally resilient tone as investors continue to assess the Reserve Bank of Australia&#8217;s (RBA) policy outlook alongside global risk sentiment. Recent comments from RBA officials have reinforced that the central bank remains prepared to tighten policy further if inflation proves persistent, providing underlying support for the AUD.<br \/><br \/><strong>Central Bank Notes:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li>The Reserve Bank of New Zealand&#8217;s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) raised the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 2.50% at its 8 July 2026 Monetary Policy Review, marking the first rate increase of the current tightening cycle. Unlike the split decision in May, the Committee reached a consensus that reducing monetary stimulus was appropriate to return inflation to target.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Although global oil prices have fallen following the partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the RBNZ warned that inflation remains above its 1\u20133% target range and that lingering energy-related cost pressures continue to pose upside risks. The Bank reiterated that further OCR increases are likely, although the timing will remain dependent on incoming economic data.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The RBNZ now expects headline inflation to have peaked at 3.9% in Q2 2026, lower than the 4.3% peak projected in May, reflecting weaker oil prices. Inflation is forecast to ease to around 3.3% in Q3 2026 before gradually returning to the 2% midpoint by mid-2027, while underlying domestic inflation remains persistent.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The Committee judged that the current OCR remains accommodative, even after the July increase, and stated that additional tightening will probably be required over coming meetings. Policymakers emphasized that future decisions will depend on inflation expectations, firms&#8217; pricing behaviour, labour market conditions, and the pace of economic recovery rather than following a predetermined path.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Economic activity slowed during the June quarter as higher energy costs temporarily weighed on demand, but the RBNZ expects the recovery to resume in the September quarter. The Bank&#8217;s Kiwi-GDP nowcasting model projects 0.6% quarterly GDP growth in Q3 2026, supported by improving business confidence, lower fuel prices, and stronger household purchasing power as inflation moderates.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>External conditions remained mixed, with elevated global energy price volatility and geopolitical risks supporting upside inflation risks, while softer demand from key trading partners\u2014especially China\u2014continued to weigh on Australian export momentum.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Financial markets now broadly expect the RBA to hold rates at 4.35% through the third quarter, with the probability of further tightening slightly reduced but still present if services inflation or wage data re-accelerate.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The July statement emphasized a continued \u201cdata-dependent and patient\u201d approach, signaling that policy will remain restrictive for longer if inflation proves persistent, while avoiding any commitment to near-term easing despite slower growth signals.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The next meeting is on 4 to 5 August 2026.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Medium Bullish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><br \/><br \/>No major news event<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from NZD today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The New Zealand dollar (NZD) is strengthening after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) delivered a 25-basis-point increase in the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 2.50% at its 8 July policy meeting. The central bank emphasized that inflation risks remain elevated despite easing energy prices, while indicating that any further tightening will remain data-dependent. The decision was viewed as moderately hawkish, lifting New Zealand government bond yields and supporting the Kiwi against most major currencies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><br \/><strong>Central Bank Notes:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li>The Reserve Bank of New Zealand&#8217;s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) raised the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 2.50% at its 8 July 2026 Monetary Policy Review, marking the first rate increase of the current tightening cycle. Unlike the split decision in May, the Committee reached a consensus that reducing monetary stimulus was appropriate to return inflation to target.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Although global oil prices have fallen following the partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the RBNZ warned that inflation remains above its 1\u20133% target range and that lingering energy-related cost pressures continue to pose upside risks. The Bank reiterated that further OCR increases are likely, although the timing will remain dependent on incoming economic data.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The RBNZ now expects headline inflation to have peaked at 3.9% in Q2 2026, lower than the 4.3% peak projected in May, reflecting weaker oil prices. Inflation is forecast to ease to around 3.3% in Q3 2026 before gradually returning to the 2% midpoint by mid-2027, while underlying domestic inflation remains persistent.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The Committee judged that the current OCR remains accommodative, even after the July increase, and stated that additional tightening will probably be required over coming meetings. Policymakers emphasized that future decisions will depend on inflation expectations, firms&#8217; pricing behaviour, labour market conditions, and the pace of economic recovery rather than following a predetermined path.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Economic activity slowed during the June quarter as higher energy costs temporarily weighed on demand, but the RBNZ expects the recovery to resume in the September quarter. The Bank&#8217;s Kiwi-GDP nowcasting model projects 0.6% quarterly GDP growth in Q3 2026, supported by improving business confidence, lower fuel prices, and stronger household purchasing power as inflation moderates.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Domestic demand remains uneven, with tourism, agriculture, and export industries continuing to outperform, while discretionary retail spending, construction, and housing activity remain subdued. The RBNZ believes spare capacity in the economy should limit widespread pass-through of higher business costs into consumer prices, although this remains an important upside inflation risk.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Financial conditions have eased since the May meeting as wholesale interest rates declined, and the New Zealand dollar depreciated, helping exporters but potentially adding to imported inflation. The Committee noted that shorter-term mortgage rates had increased earlier in the year, while longer-term borrowing costs have begun to stabilize alongside lower market interest-rate expectations.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The MPC concluded that maintaining price stability remains its primary objective, stressing that while further rate increases are expected, policy will remain data dependent. The Committee believes returning inflation to the 2% midpoint is essential to achieving a sustainable recovery in employment, household incomes, and long-term economic growth.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The next meeting is on 2 September 2026.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Medium Bullish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The Japanese Yen (JPY)<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No major news event<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from JPY today?<br \/><br \/><\/strong>The Japanese <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/symbols\/USDJPY\/?exchange=ICMARKETS\" title=\"\">yen<\/a> remains under pressure as investors continue to favor the U.S. dollar amid higher U.S. Treasury yields and expectations that the Federal Reserve could keep interest rates elevated for longer. Although the Bank of Japan has already raised interest rates this year to 1.0%, policymakers remain cautious about tightening further given concerns over economic growth and Japan&#8217;s fiscal outlook. Market attention has also shifted to Japan&#8217;s government, which is considering revisions to its economic policy framework after investors questioned whether political pressure could undermine the BOJ&#8217;s independence, sending Japanese government bond yields to their highest levels in around three decades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><br \/><strong>Central Bank Notes:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li>The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan maintained the short-term policy rate at 0.75% at the 15\u201316 June 2026 meeting, in line with market expectations, while reiterating a cautious and data-dependent approach to further policy normalization amid mixed domestic and external conditions.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The BOJ continues to target the uncollateralized overnight call rate around 0.75%, with policymakers signaling that any move toward 1.0% will depend on sustained wage growth, inflation durability above target, stable financial conditions, and limited downside risks to growth rather than a fixed tightening schedule.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>JGB purchase tapering remains on track, with monthly bond buying continuing to moderate under the previously announced framework. The BOJ maintains flexibility to intervene or temporarily adjust purchase operations if sharp volatility emerges in the Japanese government bond market or if excessive yen fluctuations threaten financial stability.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Japan\u2019s economy shows moderate but uneven growth heading into mid-2026, supported by resilient domestic demand, corporate investment, and recovering external activity, although weaker global manufacturing momentum and geopolitical tensions continue to weigh on the export outlook.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Core CPI (excluding fresh food) remains near the mid-1% y\/y range, while underlying inflation indicators, including core-core measures and services inflation, continue to hover around or above 2%, supported by stronger wage dynamics and pass-through effects from prior cost increases.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Domestic inflation pressures remain supported by 2026 Shunto wage settlements near 5%, labor shortages, and firm services pricing. However, easing import costs and stabilizing commodity prices are helping moderate headline inflation, while risks persist from renewed energy volatility and yen depreciation.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Near-term real GDP growth may remain below trend, reflecting the lagged impact of tighter financial conditions and external uncertainty, but rising household incomes, accommodative real rates, and fiscal support measures are expected to gradually support consumption and business investment.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Over the medium term, the BOJ continues to expect that labor-market tightness, wage growth, and structural productivity improvements will help sustain inflation around the 2% target, leaving room for a gradual move toward 1.0% policy rates into late-2026 or 2027, provided inflation and economic momentum remain aligned.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The next meeting is on 30 to 31 July 2026.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Medium Bearish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Oil<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><br \/><br \/>No major news event<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from Oil today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Oil markets are trading in a highly volatile environment on Thursday, as geopolitical tensions have once again become the dominant price driver. Crude prices surged after renewed military escalation between the U.S. and Iran, with concerns that disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could tighten global supplies. At the same time, the U.S. revoked authorizations for Iranian oil exports, adding fresh supply uncertainty despite an unexpected increase in U.S. crude inventories. Meanwhile, the market continues to weigh OPEC+&#8217;s recent decision to raise August production, which is expected to add supply over the coming months and could limit further upside if geopolitical risks ease.<br \/><br \/><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong>Medium Bullish<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>IC Markets Global &#8211; Asia Fundamental Forecast | 09 July 2026 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":84953,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[196,215,339],"tags":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/87922"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=87922"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/87922\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":87956,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/87922\/revisions\/87956"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/84953"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=87922"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=87922"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=87922"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}