{"id":87802,"date":"2026-07-07T16:51:40","date_gmt":"2026-07-07T06:51:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/?p=87802"},"modified":"2026-07-07T16:51:41","modified_gmt":"2026-07-07T06:51:41","slug":"ic-markets-global-asia-fundamental-forecast-07-july-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/ic-markets-global-asia-fundamental-forecast-07-july-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"IC Markets Global &#8211; Asia Fundamental Forecast | 07 July 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>IC Markets Global &#8211; Asia Fundamental Forecast | 07 July 2026<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What happened in the U.S. session?<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong>Markets continued to digest last week&#8217;s surprisingly weak U.S. June employment report, which reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will remain patient on further policy tightening. With no major high-impact U.S. economic data released during the session itself, investor attention shifted toward this week&#8217;s ISM Services PMI and the FOMC meeting minutes. Equity sentiment improved as semiconductor stocks rebounded sharply, helping lift the Nasdaq and S&amp;P 500, while optimism surrounding AI-related companies offset weakness in some large-cap names.<br \/><br \/><strong>What does it mean for the Asia Session?<\/strong><br \/><br \/>A combination of central bank expectations, energy markets, and risk sentiment following the latest U.S. developments. The biggest regional event is the conclusion of the Reserve Bank of Australia policy meeting, where markets are closely watching for any shift in guidance after the central bank maintained a restrictive stance against persistent inflation. The Japanese yen remains in focus as traders monitor the possibility of further comments from Japanese officials regarding currency intervention, with the Bank of Japan expected to continue its cautious normalization path.<br \/>\u200b<br \/><strong>The Dollar Index (DXY)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No major news event<br \/><br \/><strong>What can we expect from DXY today?<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong>The U.S. dollar began on a firmer footing after recovering from last week&#8217;s weakness, supported by a modest rebound in Treasury yields and cautious positioning ahead of several key U.S. economic releases. Investors remain focused on today&#8217;s U.S. trade balance data and Wednesday&#8217;s release of the latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes, hoping for clearer guidance from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh on the future path of interest rates. Despite June&#8217;s softer-than-expected nonfarm payrolls report reducing expectations for immediate policy tightening, markets still anticipate at least one additional rate increase later this year, providing underlying support for the dollar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><br \/><strong>Central Bank Notes:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li>The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) left the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%\u20133.75% at its June 16\u201317, 2026, meeting, marking another pause in the policy cycle. Under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, policymakers signaled a more cautious and hawkish stance as inflation remains above target despite moderating energy prices.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The Committee remains committed to achieving maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2% objective. Labor market conditions have remained relatively stable, with job gains continuing at a moderate pace and the unemployment rate projected to remain near 4.4% through 2026.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Inflation continues to be the primary concern for policymakers. Headline inflation remains elevated, supported by earlier energy-related price pressures and persistent services inflation. The June projections showed higher inflation forecasts than previously expected, leading several officials to favor keeping policy restrictive for longer.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Economic activity continues to expand at a moderate pace. Productivity growth, capital investment, and AI-related spending remain supportive of growth, while consumer spending and housing activity show signs of slowing compared with late 2025 and early 2026.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The June 2026 Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) revealed a more divided Committee. Nine officials projected at least one rate hike during 2026, while others expected rates to remain unchanged or eventually decline. The median outlook shifted toward a higher-for-longer policy path compared with earlier projections.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The Committee emphasized a data-dependent approach and noted that future decisions will depend on incoming inflation, employment, and economic growth data. Officials acknowledged that geopolitical developments and energy markets remain important upside risks to inflation.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The FOMC continues its balance sheet normalization program, maintaining Treasury runoff caps at $5 billion per month and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) runoff caps at $35 billion per month, while ensuring ample reserves remain in the banking system.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The next meeting is scheduled for 28 to 29 July 2026.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Weak Bearish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Gold (XAU)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><br \/><br \/>No major news event<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from Gold today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/symbols\/XAUUSD\/?exchange=ICMARKETS\" title=\"\">Gold<\/a> prices are beginning Tuesday on a cautious footing after pulling back from a two-week high during Monday&#8217;s session. The main driver behind the decline was a firmer U.S. dollar, which reduced the appeal of dollar-denominated bullion, although weaker-than-expected U.S. employment data has continued to temper expectations of aggressive Federal Reserve tightening and provided underlying support for the precious metal. Investors are now turning their attention to the release of the Federal Reserve&#8217;s latest meeting minutes later this week for further clues on the interest-rate outlook, while geopolitical risks and continued central bank demand remain supportive longer-term factors.<br \/><br \/><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><br \/>Strong Bullish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The Australian Dollar (AUD)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No major news event<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from AUD today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Australian dollar (AUD) begins with markets focused on the Reserve Bank of Australia&#8217;s (RBA) policy outlook, U.S. dollar direction, and global risk sentiment. The Aussie has found some support after weaker-than-expected U.S. employment data last week reduced expectations of aggressive Federal Reserve tightening, weighing on the U.S. dollar. However, gains remain limited as investors continue to assess the RBA&#8217;s relatively cautious stance amid slowing domestic economic growth and softer recent data, while China&#8217;s economic outlook, crucial for Australia&#8217;s export sector, remains another key driver.<br \/><br \/><strong>Central Bank Notes:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li>The Reserve Bank of Australia kept its cash rate unchanged at 4.35% at the 6\u20137 July 2026 meeting, maintaining a restrictive policy stance as the Board continued to evaluate whether prior tightening is sufficiently containing inflation.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Policymakers maintained a hawkish-neutral tone, reiterating that inflation is still not sustainably within the 2\u20133% target band and that it is premature to consider policy easing given lingering domestic price pressures.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Recent inflation data showed continued moderation in headline CPI, but underlying inflation remained sticky, particularly in services, housing costs, insurance premiums, and administrative prices, reinforcing concerns that disinflation is uneven.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Labour market conditions remained tight but gradually softening, with employment growth slowing from earlier highs while unemployment edged slightly higher, though wage growth is still elevated enough to sustain inflation risks in labour-intensive sectors.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Household consumption showed early signs of stabilisation, supported by real income recovery and tax-related relief measures, but discretionary spending remained uneven, suggesting that demand is cooling without collapsing.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>External conditions remained mixed, with elevated global energy price volatility and geopolitical risks supporting upside inflation risks, while softer demand from key trading partners\u2014especially China\u2014continued to weigh on Australian export momentum.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Financial markets now broadly expect the RBA to hold rates at 4.35% through the third quarter, with the probability of further tightening slightly reduced but still present if services inflation or wage data re-accelerate.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The July statement emphasized a continued \u201cdata-dependent and patient\u201d approach, signaling that policy will remain restrictive for longer if inflation proves persistent, while avoiding any commitment to near-term easing despite slower growth signals.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The next meeting is on 4 to 5 August 2026.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Weak Bullish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><br \/><br \/>No major news event<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from NZD today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The New Zealand dollar (NZD) is trading under mixed but slightly bearish pressure, driven by a combination of weaker commodity prices, uncertainty around the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) policy outlook, and continued US dollar strength. Kiwi is slipping toward the 0.568\u20130.570 USD area, as falling ANZ commodity prices (down about 1% in June) weighed on export sentiment and reduced support for New Zealand\u2019s terms of trade. At the same time, traders are increasingly focused on the upcoming RBNZ policy decision, with expectations split on whether the central bank will hike rates or hold steady, creating additional volatility in NZD pairs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><br \/><strong>Central Bank Notes:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li>The Reserve Bank of New Zealand&#8217;s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) held the Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 2.25% at its 27 May 2026 Monetary Policy Statement, but the decision was unprecedented\u2014a 3-3 split requiring Governor Anna Breman&#8217;s casting vote. Three members (Hansen, Gourley, Gai) voted for an immediate 25bp hike to 2.50%, while three (Breman, Silk, Conway) voted to hold.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>While the OCR remained unchanged, the RBNZ issued its most hawkish guidance since the cutting cycle ended, stating the OCR will &#8220;likely need to rise sooner and by more than previously envisioned.&#8221; Market pricing now indicates a 72\u201373% probability of a rate hike at the next meeting on 8 July 2026, with swaps pricing in roughly 16bps of tightening.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Annual CPI inflation remained at 3.1% in Q1 2026 (above the 1\u20133% target band) for two consecutive quarters. The RBNZ now forecasts inflation to peak at 4.3% in the September 2026 quarter\u2014driven by Middle East oil shocks\u2014before returning to the 2% target midpoint by mid-2027.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The RBNZ revised its terminal OCR forecast upward to 3.28% over the next three years (from 3.0%), implying approximately 100 basis points of total tightening ahead. The updated path suggests at least two additional hikes by year-end 2026, with the OCR potentially rising to 2.50% by September 2026 and higher thereafter.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>GDP growth is projected at 0% in Q2 2026 and only 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, reflecting an early but unconvincing recovery. Unemployment, currently at 5.3% (near a decade-high), is expected to peak at 5.4% and remain there until June 2027.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Retail sales volume rose 0.9% in Q1 2026, and electronic card data showed 2.7% annual growth in March, but high-frequency data reveals shrinking budget room as wholesale interest rates climb. Mortgage holders are increasingly shifting to two-year fixed rates for repayment certainty despite the OCR hold.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Stronger dairy and meat export revenues (meat exports up 7% to $13.2B FY2026) and a softer NZD (TWI ~68%) support the external balance, while Middle East oil volatility poses upside inflation risks. The NZD jumped 0.7% against the USD immediately after the announcement, and two-year swap rates rose 3bps.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Markets now expect the first hike in this tightening cycle, with the MPC&#8217;s internal division suggesting any future decision may again be contentious. Policy remains below the ~3% neutral rate, but the shift from &#8220;wait-and-see&#8221; to &#8220;preemptive tightening&#8221; is now clear.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The next meeting is on 8 July 2026.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Weak Bearish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The Japanese Yen (JPY)<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No major news event<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from JPY today?<br \/><br \/><\/strong>The Japanese yen remains under significant pressure, with <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/symbols\/USDJPY\/?exchange=ICMARKETS\" title=\"\">USD\/JPY<\/a> trading near 40-year highs above \u00a5162 per U.S. dollar despite the recent interest-rate hike by the Bank of Japan. Investors continue to favor the U.S. dollar because the interest-rate differential between the U.S. and Japan remains wide, sustaining carry-trade demand and limiting support for the yen. Markets are increasingly focused on the possibility of another intervention by Japan&#8217;s Ministry of Finance after several episodes of sharp intraday moves sparked speculation that authorities had entered the market to support the currency.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><br \/><strong>Central Bank Notes:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li>The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan maintained the short-term policy rate at 0.75% at the 15\u201316 June 2026 meeting, in line with market expectations, while reiterating a cautious and data-dependent approach to further policy normalization amid mixed domestic and external conditions.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The BOJ continues to target the uncollateralized overnight call rate around 0.75%, with policymakers signaling that any move toward 1.0% will depend on sustained wage growth, inflation durability above target, stable financial conditions, and limited downside risks to growth rather than a fixed tightening schedule.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>JGB purchase tapering remains on track, with monthly bond buying continuing to moderate under the previously announced framework. The BOJ maintains flexibility to intervene or temporarily adjust purchase operations if sharp volatility emerges in the Japanese government bond market or if excessive yen fluctuations threaten financial stability.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Japan\u2019s economy shows moderate but uneven growth heading into mid-2026, supported by resilient domestic demand, corporate investment, and recovering external activity, although weaker global manufacturing momentum and geopolitical tensions continue to weigh on the export outlook.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Core CPI (excluding fresh food) remains near the mid-1% y\/y range, while underlying inflation indicators, including core-core measures and services inflation, continue to hover around or above 2%, supported by stronger wage dynamics and pass-through effects from prior cost increases.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Domestic inflation pressures remain supported by 2026 Shunto wage settlements near 5%, labor shortages, and firm services pricing. However, easing import costs and stabilizing commodity prices are helping moderate headline inflation, while risks persist from renewed energy volatility and yen depreciation.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Near-term real GDP growth may remain below trend, reflecting the lagged impact of tighter financial conditions and external uncertainty, but rising household incomes, accommodative real rates, and fiscal support measures are expected to gradually support consumption and business investment.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Over the medium term, the BOJ continues to expect that labor-market tightness, wage growth, and structural productivity improvements will help sustain inflation around the 2% target, leaving room for a gradual move toward 1.0% policy rates into late-2026 or 2027, provided inflation and economic momentum remain aligned.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The next meeting is on 30 to 31 July 2026.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Weak Bearish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Oil<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><br \/><br \/>API Crude Oil Stock (8:30 pm GMT)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from Oil today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The oil market is beginning Tuesday on a cautious footing after OPEC+ agreed to increase its August production target by 188,000 barrels per day, marking the fifth consecutive monthly output increase. At the same time, Saudi Arabia lowered its official selling prices for key crude grades, signaling a more competitive supply environment, while oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz continue to recover following recent regional disruptions.<br \/><br \/><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong>Weak Bearish<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>IC Markets Global &#8211; Asia Fundamental Forecast | 07 July 2026 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":84953,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[196,215,339],"tags":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/87802"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=87802"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/87802\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":87869,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/87802\/revisions\/87869"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/84953"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=87802"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=87802"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=87802"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}