{"id":87693,"date":"2026-07-02T18:34:24","date_gmt":"2026-07-02T08:34:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/?p=87693"},"modified":"2026-07-02T18:34:25","modified_gmt":"2026-07-02T08:34:25","slug":"ic-markets-global-europe-fundamental-forecast-02-july-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/ic-markets-global-europe-fundamental-forecast-02-july-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"IC Markets Global &#8211; Europe Fundamental Forecast | 02 July 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>IC Markets Global &#8211; Europe Fundamental Forecast | 02 July 2026<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What happened in the Asia session?<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong>The Asia session was characterized by cautious risk sentiment as investors balanced encouraging geopolitical developments with concerns over slowing momentum in technology stocks and uncertainty ahead of the U.S. labor market report. Falling crude oil prices reflected expectations of improved global supply following progress in U.S.-Iran diplomacy, while semiconductor-led weakness weighed on regional equity markets. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar remained supported by higher Treasury yields, the Japanese yen stayed under pressure, and gold edged higher as traders maintained a defensive stance before the week&#8217;s key macroeconomic catalyst, the U.S. non-farm payrolls release.<br \/><br \/><strong>What does it mean for the Europe &amp; US sessions?<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><br \/>Market participants are primarily focused on the U.S. June Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, which is being released a day earlier than usual because of the Independence Day holiday. Economists expect payroll growth of around 110,000\u2013115,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate projected to remain at 4.3%, making the report the key driver for the U.S. dollar, Treasury yields, gold, equity indices, and major currency pairs. Earlier this week, the weaker-than-expected ADP employment report reinforced concerns that the U.S. labor market may be cooling, while Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh reiterated that inflation risks have eased but avoided guiding the timing of future interest-rate decisions.<br \/>\u200b<br \/><strong>The Dollar Index (DXY)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Average Hourly Earnings m\/m (12:30 pm GMT)<br \/><br \/>Non-Farm Employment Change (12:30 pm GMT)<br \/><br \/>Unemployment Rate (12:30 pm GMT)<br \/><br \/>Unemployment Claims (12:30 pm GMT)<br \/><br \/><strong>What can we expect from DXY today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The U.S. dollar is trading with a firm but cautious tone as investors await the highly anticipated U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, which is expected to provide the next major signal for the Federal Reserve&#8217;s interest-rate path. Although weaker-than-expected ADP private employment data and comments from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh indicating easing inflation pressures briefly weighed on the greenback, the dollar continues to find support from elevated U.S. Treasury yields and market expectations that the Fed could still raise interest rates later this year.<br \/><br \/><em>Central Bank Notes:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li>The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) left the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%\u20133.75% at its June 16\u201317, 2026, meeting, marking another pause in the policy cycle. Under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, policymakers signaled a more cautious and hawkish stance as inflation remains above target despite moderating energy prices.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The Committee remains committed to achieving maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2% objective. Labor market conditions have remained relatively stable, with job gains continuing at a moderate pace and the unemployment rate projected to remain near 4.4% through 2026.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Inflation continues to be the primary concern for policymakers. Headline inflation remains elevated, supported by earlier energy-related price pressures and persistent services inflation. The June projections showed higher inflation forecasts than previously expected, leading several officials to favor keeping policy restrictive for longer.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Economic activity continues to expand at a moderate pace. Productivity growth, capital investment, and AI-related spending remain supportive of growth, while consumer spending and housing activity show signs of slowing compared with late 2025 and early 2026.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The June 2026 Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) revealed a more divided Committee. Nine officials projected at least one rate hike during 2026, while others expected rates to remain unchanged or eventually decline. The median outlook shifted toward a higher-for-longer policy path compared with earlier projections.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The Committee emphasized a data-dependent approach and noted that future decisions will depend on incoming inflation, employment, and economic growth data. Officials acknowledged that geopolitical developments and energy markets remain important upside risks to inflation.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The FOMC continues its balance sheet normalization program, maintaining Treasury runoff caps at $5 billion per month and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) runoff caps at $35 billion per month, while ensuring ample reserves remain in the banking system.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The next meeting is scheduled for 28 to 29&nbsp; July 2026.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><br \/>Medium Bullish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Gold (XAU)<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong>Average Hourly Earnings m\/m (12:30 pm GMT)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Non-Farm Employment Change (12:30 pm GMT)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Unemployment Rate (12:30 pm GMT)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Unemployment Claims (12:30 pm GMT)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from Gold today?<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong>Gold prices are trading higher, recovering after recently touching an eight-month low as investors sought the safety of bullion ahead of the U.S. June non-farm payrolls report. The rally has been supported by weaker-than-expected U.S. ADP private employment data, which reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may face increasing pressure to slow the pace of policy tightening, while recent comments from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh that inflation risks have eased also helped improve sentiment toward the precious metal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><br \/><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias&nbsp; &nbsp; <\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong>Weak Bearish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The Euro (EUR)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No major news event<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from EUR toda<\/strong>y?<br \/><br \/>The euro traded with a modestly firmer tone as the U.S. dollar softened following comments from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh that inflation risks have eased, reducing demand for the greenback ahead of the closely watched U.S. non-farm payrolls report later today. Recent data showed eurozone inflation slowed more than expected in June, reinforcing expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will likely keep interest rates unchanged at its upcoming July meeting while assessing whether price pressures continue to moderate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><br \/><em>Central Bank Notes:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li>The Governing Council is expected to maintain the three key rates unchanged at their June levels into July, with the main refinancing rate around 2.15%, the marginal lending facility at 2.40%, and the deposit facility at 2.00%. Policy remains on a meeting\u2011by\u2011meeting, data\u2011dependent footing.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Real GDP growth is expected to be modest: around 0.9% for 2026, 1.3% for 2027, and 1.4% for 2028. Quarterly momentum implies roughly 0.2\u20130.3% q\/q growth in Q2 2026, consistent with resilience seen late\u20112025.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Balance\u2011sheet normalization continues smoothly. APP and PEPP wind\u2011downs are effectively completed; the Eurosystem is allowing remaining longer\u2011dated holdings to run off. No material liquidity shortages are expected; the Governing Council will monitor transmission and market functioning closely.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Upside risks: stronger\u2011than\u2011expected services inflation persistence, renewed energy or commodity price shocks, and tighter global financial conditions that transmit unevenly.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The ECB is likely to keep policy rates on hold while emphasizing data dependence: future moves will be guided by incoming HICP prints, wage dynamics, and indicators of monetary transmission (credit, deposit flows, and market functioning).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>With rates expected to be on hold and inflation slightly above target for 2026, the EUR may trade with two\u2011way volatility; upside for the EUR if euro\u2011area data surprise to the upside or if US data weaken relative to the euro\u2011area, but limited unilateral appreciation given symmetric policy risks.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Curve pricing should reflect a prolonged period of unchanged rates with modest probability of hikes if upside inflation surprises continue; front-end stays anchored, while longer\u2011dated yields respond to inflation\u2011expectation movements and global risk sentiment.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>\u200bThe next meeting is on 22 to 23 July 2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><br \/>Medium Bullish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The Swiss Franc (CHF)<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>CPI m\/m (6:30 am GMT)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from CHF today?<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><br \/>The Swiss franc (CHF) is trading with mixed momentum as investors balance the currency&#8217;s traditional safe-haven appeal against expectations that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will continue to resist excessive franc strength. The SNB kept its policy rate unchanged at 0.00% at its June meeting while reiterating its increased willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market if the franc appreciates too rapidly, aiming to prevent deflationary pressures and protect Swiss exporters. Recent data showed stronger-than-expected Swiss retail sales, providing modest support for the currency, while markets are also awaiting Switzerland&#8217;s latest inflation figures and the U.S. non-farm payrolls report for fresh direction.<br \/><br \/><em>Central Bank Notes:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li>At its monetary policy assessment on 18 June 2026, the Swiss National Bank left the SNB policy rate unchanged at 0.00%, in line with market expectations. Policymakers maintained that the current policy setting remains appropriate given low inflation and ongoing global economic uncertainty.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Inflation remains exceptionally subdued in Switzerland. Recent data show consumer price growth staying comfortably within the SNB&#8217;s price stability range, with headline inflation around 0.6% year-on-year in May 2026, while underlying inflation pressures remain limited despite higher global energy prices.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The SNB continues to view medium-term inflation pressures as largely unchanged. While energy prices linked to Middle East tensions have temporarily lifted near-term inflation expectations, the stronger Swiss franc has helped offset imported inflation, supporting the central bank&#8217;s decision to maintain rates at current levels.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>External risks remain elevated. Policymakers highlighted ongoing geopolitical tensions, trade uncertainties, and slower global growth prospects, particularly in key export markets such as the Eurozone and the United States. These factors continue to warrant a cautious policy approach.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Swiss economic activity remains resilient but modest. GDP growth is expected to remain around 1\u20131.5% in 2026, supported by domestic demand, although manufacturing and export-oriented sectors continue to face challenges from a strong franc and softer foreign demand.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The SNB reiterated its readiness to act if necessary. The Governing Board emphasized that it remains willing to intervene in foreign exchange markets to counter excessive Swiss franc appreciation and stands prepared to adjust policy should inflation or economic conditions deviate materially from expectations.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><br \/>The next meeting is on 24 September 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><br \/>Medium Bullish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The Pound (GBP)<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No major news event<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from GBP today?<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong>The British pound traded with a cautious tone as investors balanced evolving UK political developments against expectations for monetary policy and stronger U.S. economic prospects. Sterling came under pressure against the U.S. dollar after recent gains in the greenback, with markets awaiting the U.S. June non-farm payrolls report for fresh clues on the Federal Reserve&#8217;s next move. At the same time, comments from Andrew Bailey reinforced the Bank of England&#8217;s cautious stance, emphasizing that interest rate cuts are not currently under consideration, even though policymakers left the Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75% at the June meeting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Central Bank Notes:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li>The Bank of England\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) met on 17\u201318 June 2026 and voted 7\u20132 to maintain the Bank Rate at 3.75%. Two members, Megan Greene and Chief Economist Huw Pill, voted for a 25-basis-point increase to 4.00%, citing concerns about inflation expectations and the risk of persistent price pressures. The majority favored keeping policy unchanged while assessing the evolving impact of recent energy-market developments.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Quantitative tightening (QT) continues as planned, with the Bank maintaining its balance-sheet reduction strategy through gilt runoff and sales. The MPC considers QT an important part of policy normalization while preserving sufficient liquidity in financial markets.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Inflation remains above target despite some easing in energy prices. The Bank expects CPI inflation to remain around or above 3% during the second half of 2026, compared with the 2% target. While recent declines in oil and gas prices have reduced the near-term inflation outlook, policymakers remain concerned about potential second-round effects through wages and services inflation.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>UK economic growth remains subdued. The MPC noted signs of weakening demand, falling vacancies, and a softer labor market, although recent wage growth data came in slightly stronger than expected. The Committee expects economic activity to remain modest as higher borrowing costs and uncertainty continue to weigh on business investment and consumer spending.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Global risks remain elevated, particularly due to developments in the Middle East and their potential effects on energy markets, trade flows, and financial conditions. Although tensions have eased somewhat following diplomatic progress, policymakers continue to monitor commodity-price volatility and its implications for UK inflation.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Inflation risks remain tilted to the upside. The MPC highlighted concerns that higher inflation expectations, resilient wage growth, and renewed energy-price shocks could require a more restrictive policy stance. However, downside risks from weaker growth and increasing economic slack provide an offsetting influence.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The MPC continues to emphasize a data-dependent and restrictive policy stance, with no commitment to either rate cuts or hikes in the near term. Governor Andrew Bailey stated that policymakers will remain vigilant and stand ready to respond if inflation proves more persistent than expected. The presence of two votes for a rate increase demonstrates that the Committee remains alert to upside inflation risks.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The next meeting is on 30 July 2026.<br \/><br \/><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong>Medium Bullish<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong>The Canadian Dollar (CAD)<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong>No major news event&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from CAD today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Canadian dollar (CAD) remains under pressure with the currency trading near multi-month lows against the U.S. dollar. The main drivers are softer crude oil prices, which reduce support for the commodity-linked loonie, and a stronger U.S. dollar as markets await the U.S. non-farm payrolls report and continue to assess the Federal Reserve&#8217;s policy outlook. Investors also remain cautious over the widening interest-rate gap between the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve, with expectations that the Bank of Canada will keep rates steady while the Fed maintains a relatively hawkish stance.<br \/>\u200b<br \/>Central Bank Notes:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li>At its 10 June 2026 meeting, the Governing Council maintained the overnight rate target at 2.25%, continuing the policy pause begun earlier in the year. The decision matched market expectations and reflected the Committee\u2019s assessment that the current stance remains appropriately restrictive to secure 2% inflation over the policy horizon.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The Bank noted persistent global headwinds: geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and renewed U.S. trade friction continue to weigh on sentiment and supply chains. These risks are asymmetric and could slow foreign demand or push commodity price volatility higher.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Real GDP growth is estimated to have continued into Q2 at roughly a 2.0\u20132.3% annualized pace, broadly consistent with the Bank\u2019s April projection of sustained momentum. Strength remained concentrated in resource shipments and exports, supported by robust global energy demand, while business investment showed only tentative improvement.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The labour market remains tight but is showing early signs of rebalancing: employment growth continued, and the unemployment rate stayed near recent lows, but wage growth has moderated from its peak. Participation edged up modestly in some regions, consistent with slower wage pressure ahead.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u200bHeadline CPI remained close to 2.0% year-over-year in April\u2013May prints, within the inflation target band. Core indicators\u2014CPI-trim, CPI-median, and a trimmed mean\u2014tracked around 2.3\u20132.6%, showing modest further easing compared with earlier in the year.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Manufacturing PMI remained in expansionary territory into May, supported by export orders and healthy energy-sector activity. Firms reported steady demand for intermediate goods, though capex intentions remain cautious.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Credit growth continued at a moderate pace. Bank lending spreads and deposit dynamics showed limited pass-through from global tightening episodes. Mortgage rates remain somewhat elevated but stable, underpinning the observed moderation in housing activity.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The next meeting is on 16 July 2026.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><br \/>Strong Bearish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Oil<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong><em><br \/><\/em><\/strong><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No major news event<br \/><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong>What can we expect from Oil today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Oil prices weakened, extending recent losses as markets reacted positively to indirect U.S.-Iran negotiations in Doha, which eased concerns over supply disruptions through the strategically important Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude traded around $70\u201371 per barrel, while WTI slipped below $68 per barrel, as traders priced out much of the geopolitical risk premium that had driven prices higher earlier in the year. Additional bearish pressure came from expectations that OPEC+ will approve another production increase of approximately 188,000 barrels per day for August at its upcoming meeting, reinforcing expectations of a more balanced global supply.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><br \/><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong>Weak Bearish<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>IC Markets Global &#8211; Europe Fundamental Forecast | 02 July 2026 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":84955,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[196,215,339],"tags":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/87693"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=87693"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/87693\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":87719,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/87693\/revisions\/87719"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/84955"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=87693"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=87693"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=87693"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}