{"id":87691,"date":"2026-07-02T18:34:32","date_gmt":"2026-07-02T08:34:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/?p=87691"},"modified":"2026-07-02T18:34:34","modified_gmt":"2026-07-02T08:34:34","slug":"ic-markets-global-asia-fundamental-forecast-02-july-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/ic-markets-global-asia-fundamental-forecast-02-july-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"IC Markets Global &#8211; Asia Fundamental Forecast | 02 July 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>IC Markets Global &#8211; Asia Fundamental Forecast | 02 July 2026<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What happened in the U.S. session?<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong>During the U.S. session overnight, markets were driven by a fresh round of U.S. macroeconomic data and evolving Federal Reserve expectations. The June ISM Manufacturing PMI eased to 53.3 from May&#8217;s four-year high but remained firmly in expansion territory, indicating that U.S. manufacturing continues to grow despite moderating momentum. The report also showed that input prices remained elevated while exports softened, reinforcing the view that inflationary pressures have not fully disappeared. Labor market indicators remained resilient, with layoffs falling sharply during June ahead of the official Non-Farm Payrolls report.<br \/><br \/><strong>What does it mean for the Asia Session?<\/strong><br \/><br \/>U.S. developments, central bank commentary, commodity price movements, and key regional economic releases. U.S. equities closed mixed after comments from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh suggested that inflation expectations are easing. However, he stopped short of signaling the timing of future interest-rate moves. The U.S. dollar remained under pressure, while Treasury yields stayed elevated ahead of the closely watched U.S. nonfarm payrolls report due later this week. Gold rebounded as investors sought safe-haven assets, while crude oil extended its decline as concerns over Middle East supply disruptions eased amid renewed U.S.-Iran diplomatic efforts.<br \/>\u200b<br \/><strong>The Dollar Index (DXY)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Average Hourly Earnings m\/m (12:30 pm GMT)<br \/><br \/>Non-Farm Employment Change (12:30 pm GMT)<br \/><br \/>Unemployment Rate (12:30 pm GMT)<br \/><br \/>Unemployment Claims (12:30 pm GMT)<br \/><br \/><strong>What can we expect from DXY today?<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong>The U.S. dollar is under mixed pressure as traders await the highly anticipated U.S. June Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, which was moved forward because of the Independence Day holiday. The greenback weakened after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh said inflation risks and inflation expectations have eased, prompting markets to trim expectations for additional near-term rate hikes, although he deliberately avoided giving guidance on future policy. Meanwhile, a softer-than-expected ADP private payrolls report reinforced expectations of a cooling labor market, increasing the importance of today&#8217;s official employment figures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><br \/><strong>Central Bank Notes:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li>The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) left the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%\u20133.75% at its June 16\u201317, 2026, meeting, marking another pause in the policy cycle. Under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, policymakers signaled a more cautious and hawkish stance as inflation remains above target despite moderating energy prices.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The Committee remains committed to achieving maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2% objective. Labor market conditions have remained relatively stable, with job gains continuing at a moderate pace and the unemployment rate projected to remain near 4.4% through 2026.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Inflation continues to be the primary concern for policymakers. Headline inflation remains elevated, supported by earlier energy-related price pressures and persistent services inflation. The June projections showed higher inflation forecasts than previously expected, leading several officials to favor keeping policy restrictive for longer.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Economic activity continues to expand at a moderate pace. Productivity growth, capital investment, and AI-related spending remain supportive of growth, while consumer spending and housing activity show signs of slowing compared with late 2025 and early 2026.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The June 2026 Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) revealed a more divided Committee. Nine officials projected at least one rate hike during 2026, while others expected rates to remain unchanged or eventually decline. The median outlook shifted toward a higher-for-longer policy path compared with earlier projections.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The Committee emphasized a data-dependent approach and noted that future decisions will depend on incoming inflation, employment, and economic growth data. Officials acknowledged that geopolitical developments and energy markets remain important upside risks to inflation.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The FOMC continues its balance sheet normalization program, maintaining Treasury runoff caps at $5 billion per month and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) runoff caps at $35 billion per month, while ensuring ample reserves remain in the banking system.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The next meeting is scheduled for 28 to 29 July 2026.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Medium Bullish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Gold (XAU)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><br \/><br \/>Average Hourly Earnings m\/m (12:30 pm GMT)<br \/><br \/>Non-Farm Employment Change (12:30 pm GMT)<br \/><br \/>Unemployment Rate (12:30 pm GMT)<br \/><br \/>Unemployment Claims (12:30 pm GMT)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from Gold today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Gold prices are on a firmer footing after a sharp rebound in the previous session. Bullion rallied more than 2% as weaker-than-expected U.S. private payroll data and comments from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh indicating that inflation expectations have eased weighed on the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields, improving demand for the non-yielding precious metal. However, traders remain cautious ahead of today&#8217;s closely watched U.S. non-farm payrolls report, which could significantly influence expectations for future Federal Reserve policy.<br \/><br \/><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><br \/>Weak Bearish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The Australian Dollar (AUD)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No major news event<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from AUD today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Australian dollar is trading cautiously on Thursday, as investors weigh a softer domestic outlook against upcoming U.S. economic data, particularly Friday&#8217;s U.S. non-farm payrolls report. Recent Australian inflation data eased slightly, reducing expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will deliver another near-term interest-rate hike, although underlying inflation remains above the RBA&#8217;s target and policymakers continue to maintain a relatively hawkish tone. Markets are also closely monitoring Chinese economic indicators, as China&#8217;s demand remains a key driver of Australia&#8217;s exports and the Australian dollar.<br \/><br \/><strong>Central Bank Notes:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li>The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its cash rate unchanged at 4.35% at the 15\u201316 June 2026 meeting, maintaining a restrictive policy stance as policymakers assessed whether the May rate increase was sufficient to contain renewed inflation pressures.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The RBA voted to hold the cash rate at 4.35%, reiterating that inflation remains too high and warning that monetary policy may need to stay restrictive for an extended period, while leaving the door open to further tightening if price pressures persist.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Inflation remains elevated, with headline CPI still above the RBA\u2019s 2\u20133% target range, while underlying inflation measures, particularly trimmed mean CPI, continue to show sticky price pressures in services, rents, insurance, and household expenses, complicating the disinflation process.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Labour-market conditions remain relatively resilient despite signs of gradual cooling, with unemployment staying historically low and wage growth still elevated enough to risk reinforcing inflation persistence, especially in labour-intensive service sectors.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>External risks remain important to the outlook, as elevated commodity prices and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to pose upside risks to energy costs and imported inflation, while slower growth in major trading partners\u2014particularly China\u2014creates downside risks for Australian exports.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Financial markets broadly price the cash rate remaining at 4.35% through July, with expectations favouring an extended pause unless inflation or labour-market data materially surprise to the upside; however, markets still assign a limited probability of one additional hike later in 2026.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The RBA continues to stress a \u201cdata-dependent\u201d policy framework, emphasizing that future decisions will be guided by inflation, employment, wages, and consumer-spending data, while balancing the need to restore price stability without unnecessarily weakening economic activity.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The June communication maintained a hawkish-neutral tone, acknowledging some progress in inflation moderation but emphasizing that risks remain skewed to the upside, particularly from sticky domestic services inflation and external energy-price shocks, supporting a cautious approach into the July meeting.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The next meeting is on 6 to 7 July 2026.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Medium Bearish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><br \/><br \/>No major news event<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from NZD today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The New Zealand dollar enters Thursday with a modest bullish bias, supported by a sharp improvement in domestic business confidence and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand&#8217;s hawkish policy outlook. However, gains may remain limited as investors await key U.S. employment data and continue to assess New Zealand&#8217;s near-term economic outlook, making global risk sentiment and Federal Reserve expectations the primary drivers of NZD trading today.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><br \/><strong>Central Bank Notes:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li>The Reserve Bank of New Zealand&#8217;s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) held the Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 2.25% at its 27 May 2026 Monetary Policy Statement, but the decision was unprecedented\u2014a 3-3 split requiring Governor Anna Breman&#8217;s casting vote. Three members (Hansen, Gourley, Gai) voted for an immediate 25bp hike to 2.50%, while three (Breman, Silk, Conway) voted to hold.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>While the OCR remained unchanged, the RBNZ issued its most hawkish guidance since the cutting cycle ended, stating the OCR will &#8220;likely need to rise sooner and by more than previously envisioned.&#8221; Market pricing now indicates a 72\u201373% probability of a rate hike at the next meeting on 8 July 2026, with swaps pricing in roughly 16bps of tightening.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Annual CPI inflation remained at 3.1% in Q1 2026 (above the 1\u20133% target band) for two consecutive quarters. The RBNZ now forecasts inflation to peak at 4.3% in the September 2026 quarter\u2014driven by Middle East oil shocks\u2014before returning to the 2% target midpoint by mid-2027.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The RBNZ revised its terminal OCR forecast upward to 3.28% over the next three years (from 3.0%), implying approximately 100 basis points of total tightening ahead. The updated path suggests at least two additional hikes by year-end 2026, with the OCR potentially rising to 2.50% by September 2026 and higher thereafter.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>GDP growth is projected at 0% in Q2 2026 and only 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, reflecting an early but unconvincing recovery. Unemployment, currently at 5.3% (near a decade-high), is expected to peak at 5.4% and remain there until June 2027.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Retail sales volume rose 0.9% in Q1 2026, and electronic card data showed 2.7% annual growth in March, but high-frequency data reveals shrinking budget room as wholesale interest rates climb. Mortgage holders are increasingly shifting to two-year fixed rates for repayment certainty despite the OCR hold.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Stronger dairy and meat export revenues (meat exports up 7% to $13.2B FY2026) and a softer NZD (TWI ~68%) support the external balance, while Middle East oil volatility poses upside inflation risks. The NZD jumped 0.7% against the USD immediately after the announcement, and two-year swap rates rose 3bps.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Markets now expect the first hike in this tightening cycle, with the MPC&#8217;s internal division suggesting any future decision may again be contentious. Policy remains below the ~3% neutral rate, but the shift from &#8220;wait-and-see&#8221; to &#8220;preemptive tightening&#8221; is now clear.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The next meeting is on 8 July 2026.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Strong Bearish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The Japanese Yen (JPY)<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No major news event<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from JPY today?<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong>The Japanese yen remains under significant pressure as of Thursday, continuing its slide near multi-decade lows around the 162 per USD area, driven primarily by the persistent interest rate gap between the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan. Despite recent BOJ tightening steps and stronger-than-expected domestic economic data, including an 8-year high in business sentiment and rising corporate inflation expectations, markets remain unconvinced that Japan will tighten fast enough to close the yield differential, keeping the yen weak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><br \/><strong>Central Bank Notes:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li>The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan maintained the short-term policy rate at 0.75% at the 15\u201316 June 2026 meeting, in line with market expectations, while reiterating a cautious and data-dependent approach to further policy normalization amid mixed domestic and external conditions.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The BOJ continues to target the uncollateralized overnight call rate around 0.75%, with policymakers signaling that any move toward 1.0% will depend on sustained wage growth, inflation durability above target, stable financial conditions, and limited downside risks to growth rather than a fixed tightening schedule.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>JGB purchase tapering remains on track, with monthly bond buying continuing to moderate under the previously announced framework. The BOJ maintains flexibility to intervene or temporarily adjust purchase operations if sharp volatility emerges in the Japanese government bond market or if excessive yen fluctuations threaten financial stability.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Japan\u2019s economy shows moderate but uneven growth heading into mid-2026, supported by resilient domestic demand, corporate investment, and recovering external activity, although weaker global manufacturing momentum and geopolitical tensions continue to weigh on the export outlook.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Core CPI (excluding fresh food) remains near the mid-1% y\/y range, while underlying inflation indicators, including core-core measures and services inflation, continue to hover around or above 2%, supported by stronger wage dynamics and pass-through effects from prior cost increases.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Domestic inflation pressures remain supported by 2026 Shunto wage settlements near 5%, labor shortages, and firm services pricing. However, easing import costs and stabilizing commodity prices are helping moderate headline inflation, while risks persist from renewed energy volatility and yen depreciation.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Near-term real GDP growth may remain below trend, reflecting the lagged impact of tighter financial conditions and external uncertainty, but rising household incomes, accommodative real rates, and fiscal support measures are expected to gradually support consumption and business investment.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Over the medium term, the BOJ continues to expect that labor-market tightness, wage growth, and structural productivity improvements will help sustain inflation around the 2% target, leaving room for a gradual move toward 1.0% policy rates into late-2026 or 2027, provided inflation and economic momentum remain aligned.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The next meeting is on 30 to 31 July 2026.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Weak Bearish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Oil<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><br \/><br \/>No major news event<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from Oil today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Oil markets on Thursday are being driven by a mix of easing geopolitical risk in the Middle East and a growing perception of a global supply surplus. Brent crude has been trading just under the $72 per barrel level, while WTI is hovering in the high-$60s, as ongoing U.S.\u2013Iran diplomatic progress continues to reduce the war risk premium that had previously pushed prices sharply higher earlier in the year.<br \/><br \/><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong>Weak Bearish<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>IC Markets Global &#8211; Asia Fundamental Forecast | 02 July 2026 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":84953,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[196,215,339],"tags":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/87691"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=87691"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/87691\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":87692,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/87691\/revisions\/87692"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/84953"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=87691"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=87691"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=87691"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}