{"id":87608,"date":"2026-06-30T18:22:46","date_gmt":"2026-06-30T08:22:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/?p=87608"},"modified":"2026-06-30T18:22:47","modified_gmt":"2026-06-30T08:22:47","slug":"ic-markets-global-asia-fundamental-forecast-30-june-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/ic-markets-global-asia-fundamental-forecast-30-june-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"IC Markets Global &#8211; Asia Fundamental Forecast | 30 June 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>IC Markets Global &#8211; Asia Fundamental Forecast | 30 June 2026<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What happened in the U.S. session?<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong>Markets were driven primarily by geopolitical developments, positioning ahead of this week&#8217;s key U.S. labor market data, and broad risk sentiment. Reports that the U.S. and Iran had agreed to resume peace talks and halt further military escalation eased fears of a prolonged disruption to oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. Investors also positioned ahead of Thursday&#8217;s U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report and other labor-market releases, which are expected to shape expectations for the Federal Reserve&#8217;s next policy decision.<br \/><br \/><strong>What does it mean for the Asia Session?<\/strong><br \/><br \/>Market attention is firmly centered on China&#8217;s June PMI figures, which will provide one of the clearest indications of regional economic momentum heading into the third quarter. The release of the RBA meeting minutes could influence expectations for Australian monetary policy, while the continued weakness of the Japanese yen keeps the risk of official intervention on traders&#8217; radar. Meanwhile, oil prices remain sensitive to geopolitical developments in the Middle East, and broader market sentiment will continue to be shaped by U.S. dollar strength, technology sector performance, and investor positioning ahead of major U.S. economic data later in the week.<br \/>\u200b<br \/><strong>The Dollar Index (DXY)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>CB Consumer Confidence (2:00 pm GMT)<br \/><br \/>JOLTS Job Openings (2:00 pm GMT)<br \/><br \/><strong>What can we expect from DXY today?<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong>The U.S. dollar enters Tuesday with a bullish underlying tone, despite a slight pullback from recent highs. Markets continue to be supported by strong U.S. economic fundamentals, elevated Treasury yields, and expectations that the Federal Reserve may maintain a hawkish stance or even raise interest rates later this year. Investors are now shifting their attention to this week&#8217;s high-impact U.S. economic releases, particularly the Non-Farm Payrolls report, which could determine whether the dollar extends its recent rally. While easing Middle East tensions have reduced some safe-haven demand, the greenback remains one of the strongest major currencies as the second half of 2026 begins.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><br \/><strong>Central Bank Notes:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li>The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) left the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%\u20133.75% at its June 16\u201317, 2026, meeting, marking another pause in the policy cycle. Under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, policymakers signaled a more cautious and hawkish stance as inflation remains above target despite moderating energy prices.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The Committee remains committed to achieving maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2% objective. Labor market conditions have remained relatively stable, with job gains continuing at a moderate pace and the unemployment rate projected to remain near 4.4% through 2026.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Inflation continues to be the primary concern for policymakers. Headline inflation remains elevated, supported by earlier energy-related price pressures and persistent services inflation. The June projections showed higher inflation forecasts than previously expected, leading several officials to favor keeping policy restrictive for longer.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Economic activity continues to expand at a moderate pace. Productivity growth, capital investment, and AI-related spending remain supportive of growth, while consumer spending and housing activity show signs of slowing compared with late 2025 and early 2026.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The June 2026 Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) revealed a more divided Committee. Nine officials projected at least one rate hike during 2026, while others expected rates to remain unchanged or eventually decline. The median outlook shifted toward a higher-for-longer policy path compared with earlier projections.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The Committee emphasized a data-dependent approach and noted that future decisions will depend on incoming inflation, employment, and economic growth data. Officials acknowledged that geopolitical developments and energy markets remain important upside risks to inflation.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The FOMC continues its balance sheet normalization program, maintaining Treasury runoff caps at $5 billion per month and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) runoff caps at $35 billion per month, while ensuring ample reserves remain in the banking system.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The next meeting is scheduled for 28 to 29 July 2026.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Medium Bullish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Gold (XAU)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><br \/><br \/>CB Consumer Confidence (2:00 pm GMT)<br \/><br \/>JOLTS Job Openings (2:00 pm GMT)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from Gold today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Gold remains on a cautious footing as markets continue to price in the possibility of further Federal Reserve tightening. A stronger U.S. dollar and elevated bond yields remain the primary headwinds, keeping prices near multi-month lows around the $4,000\/oz mark. While central bank buying and long-term demand continue to provide underlying support, the short-term direction will likely depend on upcoming U.S. economic data, particularly employment figures, which could determine whether gold extends its decline or stages a technical rebound.<br \/><br \/><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><br \/>Weak Bullish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The Australian Dollar (AUD)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No major news event<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from AUD today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Australian dollar enters Tuesday on a cautious footing as traders await the RBA&#8217;s June meeting minutes for fresh policy guidance. While Australia&#8217;s labour market remains relatively resilient and inflation is still elevated enough to justify a hawkish stance, the currency continues to face headwinds from a stronger US dollar, weaker risk sentiment, and uncertainty over the global growth outlook. Market attention will remain focused on any indication that the RBA could resume tightening, as well as upcoming US economic data that could influence the AUD\/USD direction.<br \/><br \/><strong>Central Bank Notes:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li>The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its cash rate unchanged at 4.35% at the 15\u201316 June 2026 meeting, maintaining a restrictive policy stance as policymakers assessed whether the May rate increase was sufficient to contain renewed inflation pressures.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The RBA voted to hold the cash rate at 4.35%, reiterating that inflation remains too high and warning that monetary policy may need to stay restrictive for an extended period, while leaving the door open to further tightening if price pressures persist.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Inflation remains elevated, with headline CPI still above the RBA\u2019s 2\u20133% target range, while underlying inflation measures, particularly trimmed mean CPI, continue to show sticky price pressures in services, rents, insurance, and household expenses, complicating the disinflation process.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Labour-market conditions remain relatively resilient despite signs of gradual cooling, with unemployment staying historically low and wage growth still elevated enough to risk reinforcing inflation persistence, especially in labour-intensive service sectors.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>External risks remain important to the outlook, as elevated commodity prices and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to pose upside risks to energy costs and imported inflation, while slower growth in major trading partners\u2014particularly China\u2014creates downside risks for Australian exports.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Financial markets broadly price the cash rate remaining at 4.35% through July, with expectations favouring an extended pause unless inflation or labour-market data materially surprise to the upside; however, markets still assign a limited probability of one additional hike later in 2026.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The RBA continues to stress a \u201cdata-dependent\u201d policy framework, emphasizing that future decisions will be guided by inflation, employment, wages, and consumer-spending data, while balancing the need to restore price stability without unnecessarily weakening economic activity.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The June communication maintained a hawkish-neutral tone, acknowledging some progress in inflation moderation but emphasizing that risks remain skewed to the upside, particularly from sticky domestic services inflation and external energy-price shocks, supporting a cautious approach into the July meeting.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The next meeting is on 6 to 7 July 2026.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Weak Bearish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><br \/><br \/>No major news event<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from NZD today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The New Zealand dollar begins Tuesday&#8217;s Asian session with a cautiously bearish tone as a stronger US dollar, supported by robust US economic data and lingering geopolitical risks, continues to weigh on risk-sensitive currencies. Nevertheless, expectations of another RBNZ rate hike in July, resilient Chinese demand for New Zealand exports, and improving conditions in the dairy sector are providing underlying support. Traders will closely monitor global risk sentiment, US economic releases, and any RBNZ-related commentary, as these are likely to be the primary drivers of NZD price action in today&#8217;s session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><br \/><strong>Central Bank Notes:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li>The Reserve Bank of New Zealand&#8217;s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) held the Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 2.25% at its 27 May 2026 Monetary Policy Statement, but the decision was unprecedented\u2014a 3-3 split requiring Governor Anna Breman&#8217;s casting vote. Three members (Hansen, Gourley, Gai) voted for an immediate 25bp hike to 2.50%, while three (Breman, Silk, Conway) voted to hold.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>While the OCR remained unchanged, the RBNZ issued its most hawkish guidance since the cutting cycle ended, stating the OCR will &#8220;likely need to rise sooner and by more than previously envisioned.&#8221; Market pricing now indicates a 72\u201373% probability of a rate hike at the next meeting on 8 July 2026, with swaps pricing in roughly 16bps of tightening.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Annual CPI inflation remained at 3.1% in Q1 2026 (above the 1\u20133% target band) for two consecutive quarters. The RBNZ now forecasts inflation to peak at 4.3% in the September 2026 quarter\u2014driven by Middle East oil shocks\u2014before returning to the 2% target midpoint by mid-2027.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The RBNZ revised its terminal OCR forecast upward to 3.28% over the next three years (from 3.0%), implying approximately 100 basis points of total tightening ahead. The updated path suggests at least two additional hikes by year-end 2026, with the OCR potentially rising to 2.50% by September 2026 and higher thereafter.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>GDP growth is projected at 0% in Q2 2026 and only 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, reflecting an early but unconvincing recovery. Unemployment, currently at 5.3% (near a decade-high), is expected to peak at 5.4% and remain there until June 2027.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Retail sales volume rose 0.9% in Q1 2026, and electronic card data showed 2.7% annual growth in March, but high-frequency data reveals shrinking budget room as wholesale interest rates climb. Mortgage holders are increasingly shifting to two-year fixed rates for repayment certainty despite the OCR hold.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Stronger dairy and meat export revenues (meat exports up 7% to $13.2B FY2026) and a softer NZD (TWI ~68%) support the external balance, while Middle East oil volatility poses upside inflation risks. The NZD jumped 0.7% against the USD immediately after the announcement, and two-year swap rates rose 3bps.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Markets now expect the first hike in this tightening cycle, with the MPC&#8217;s internal division suggesting any future decision may again be contentious. Policy remains below the ~3% neutral rate, but the shift from &#8220;wait-and-see&#8221; to &#8220;preemptive tightening&#8221; is now clear.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The next meeting is on 8 July 2026.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Weak Bearish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The Japanese Yen (JPY)<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No major news event<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from JPY today?<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong>The Japanese yen is under sustained bearish pressure after sliding to its weakest level in nearly four decades. While the Bank of Japan has begun tightening policy, the pace remains much slower than that of the U.S. Federal Reserve, leaving the yield gap firmly in favor of the dollar. Markets are increasingly focused on whether Japanese authorities will intervene if USD\/JPY extends beyond recent highs, while upcoming domestic economic data and the July BOJ meeting will be crucial in determining whether the yen can stabilize or continue its prolonged decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><br \/><strong>Central Bank Notes:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li>The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan maintained the short-term policy rate at 0.75% at the 15\u201316 June 2026 meeting, in line with market expectations, while reiterating a cautious and data-dependent approach to further policy normalization amid mixed domestic and external conditions.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The BOJ continues to target the uncollateralized overnight call rate around 0.75%, with policymakers signaling that any move toward 1.0% will depend on sustained wage growth, inflation durability above target, stable financial conditions, and limited downside risks to growth rather than a fixed tightening schedule.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>JGB purchase tapering remains on track, with monthly bond buying continuing to moderate under the previously announced framework. The BOJ maintains flexibility to intervene or temporarily adjust purchase operations if sharp volatility emerges in the Japanese government bond market or if excessive yen fluctuations threaten financial stability.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Japan\u2019s economy shows moderate but uneven growth heading into mid-2026, supported by resilient domestic demand, corporate investment, and recovering external activity, although weaker global manufacturing momentum and geopolitical tensions continue to weigh on the export outlook.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Core CPI (excluding fresh food) remains near the mid-1% y\/y range, while underlying inflation indicators, including core-core measures and services inflation, continue to hover around or above 2%, supported by stronger wage dynamics and pass-through effects from prior cost increases.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Domestic inflation pressures remain supported by 2026 Shunto wage settlements near 5%, labor shortages, and firm services pricing. However, easing import costs and stabilizing commodity prices are helping moderate headline inflation, while risks persist from renewed energy volatility and yen depreciation.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Near-term real GDP growth may remain below trend, reflecting the lagged impact of tighter financial conditions and external uncertainty, but rising household incomes, accommodative real rates, and fiscal support measures are expected to gradually support consumption and business investment.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Over the medium term, the BOJ continues to expect that labor-market tightness, wage growth, and structural productivity improvements will help sustain inflation around the 2% target, leaving room for a gradual move toward 1.0% policy rates into late-2026 or 2027, provided inflation and economic momentum remain aligned.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The next meeting is on 30 to 31 July 2026.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Weak Bearish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Oil<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><br \/><br \/>API Crude Oil Stock (8:20 pm GMT)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from Oil today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Oil markets are being driven by a volatile mix of easing Middle East supply disruptions and lingering geopolitical uncertainty. Brent crude and WTI remain relatively stable near the low-$70s after a sharp June correction, as improved shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz have helped ease earlier supply fears and triggered a large unwind of the war-driven risk premium. However, the market is still highly sensitive to renewed U.S.\u2013Iran tensions, with recent weekend clashes briefly lifting prices as traders reassess the durability of the fragile ceasefire and the security of key Gulf export routes.<br \/><br \/><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong>Medium Bearish<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>IC Markets Global &#8211; Asia Fundamental Forecast | 30 June 2026 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":84953,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[196,215,339],"tags":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/87608"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=87608"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/87608\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":87609,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/87608\/revisions\/87609"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/84953"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=87608"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=87608"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=87608"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}