{"id":87142,"date":"2026-06-11T17:26:04","date_gmt":"2026-06-11T07:26:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/?p=87142"},"modified":"2026-06-11T17:26:05","modified_gmt":"2026-06-11T07:26:05","slug":"ic-markets-global-europe-fundamental-forecast-11-june-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/ic-markets-global-europe-fundamental-forecast-11-june-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"IC Markets Global &#8211; Europe Fundamental Forecast | 11 June 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>IC Markets Global &#8211; Europe Fundamental Forecast | 11 June 2026<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What happened in the Asia session?<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong>Renewed U.S. military strikes on Iran (with Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz in response) and U.S. May inflation data showing CPI accelerated to 4.2% annually, the fastest pace since April 2023. These headlines drove a sharp risk-off sentiment, causing Asian stocks to slide (MSCI Asia-Pacific ex-Japan down 0.9%, South Korea&#8217;s KOSPI tumbling 3%) while oil prices surged (Brent crude rose over 2% to $94.93\u2013$95.40\/barrel).<br \/><br \/><strong>What does it mean for the Europe &amp; US sessions?<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><br \/>Traders should keep a close eye on a mix of inflation data, central bank expectations, and geopolitical developments. In Europe, the main focus is on the anticipated policy decision and communication from the European Central Bank, with markets watching for guidance on inflation and the interest-rate path after recent price pressures in the euro area. In the U.S. session, attention shifts to high-impact macro data, particularly the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) and weekly Initial Jobless Claims, both key indicators for inflation trends and labor-market strength that could influence expectations around future Federal Reserve System policy.<br \/>\u200b<br \/><strong>The Dollar Index (DXY)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Core PPI m\/m (12:30 pm GMT)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>PPI m\/m (12:30 pm GMT)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Unemployment Claims (12:30 pm GMT)<br \/><br \/><strong>What can we expect from DXY today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The U.S. dollar is trading with a slightly mixed-to-bearish tone today, Thursday, as traders weigh hotter U.S. inflation data against growing geopolitical uncertainty and expectations around the Federal Reserve. The latest U.S. CPI report showed inflation rising to 4.2% year-over-year in May, the highest level in about three years, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates elevated for longer, which is generally supportive for the dollar.<br \/><br \/><em>Central Bank Notes:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li>The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to hold the federal funds rate target range steady at 3.50%\u20133.75% at its April 28\u201329, 2026, meeting, as oil prices remain elevated around $108 per barrel for Brent crude amid ongoing US-Israel tensions with Iran, alongside surging inflation from energy shocks, further delaying any 2026 rate cuts potentially beyond September.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The Committee continues to pursue maximum employment and 2% inflation goals, with the labor market showing mixed signals as nonfarm payrolls rose by 178,000 in March 2026\u2014beating lowered expectations but driven partly by strike reversals\u2014and the unemployment rate edged down to 4.3% from 4.4% in February.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Officials face heightened risks from geopolitical tensions, soaring oil prices, and accelerating inflation, with CPI jumping to 3.3% year-over-year in March 2026 from 2.4% in February due to a 10.9% monthly energy surge, headline PCE pressured higher, and core PCE estimates around 3.1% or more.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Economic activity continues to cool after robust Q4 2025 growth near 5%, with the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimating Q1 2026 growth at 1.3% amid softer consumer spending, strike impacts, and labor data despite some resilience.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>March 2026&#8217;s Summary of Economic Projections forecasts 2026 unemployment at a median around 4.4%, GDP growth revised higher, and core PCE up to 2.7%, with the dot plot still signaling one cut in 2026 to a median 3.25%\u20133.50% funds rate amid softer labor but inflation upticks.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The Committee maintains its data-dependent stance amid a mixed labor market, inflation well above target from oil shocks, and geopolitical risks, likely holding rates at 3.50%-3.75% with persistent divisions and hawkish tones on cuts.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The FOMC continues its adjusted quantitative tightening, with Treasury rolloff caps at $5 billion per month and agency MBS at $35 billion per month to manage reserves amid post-2025 balance sheet adjustments.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The FOMC continues its adjusted quantitative tightening, with Treasury rolloff caps at $5 billion per month and agency MBS at $35 billion per month to ensure ample reserves post-2025 program adjustments.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The next meeting is scheduled for 16 to 17&nbsp; June 2026.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><br \/>Medium Bullish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Gold (XAU)<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong>Core PPI m\/m (12:30 pm GMT)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>PPI m\/m (12:30 pm GMT)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Unemployment Claims (12:30 pm GMT)<br \/><br \/><strong>What can we expect from Gold today?<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong>Gold prices are under pressure today, as traders react to rising U.S. inflation expectations, higher bond yields, and renewed concerns that the U.S. Federal Reserve could keep interest rates elevated for longer. Spot gold briefly touched a multi-month low before recovering slightly, trading around the $4,050\u2013$4,100\/oz area after a sharp selloff earlier this week. Markets are closely watching fresh U.S. inflation-related data following stronger-than-expected price pressures, which have boosted expectations of a possible rate hike later this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><br \/><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias&nbsp; &nbsp; <\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong>Weak Bearish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The Euro (EUR)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><br \/><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Main Refinancing Rate (12:15 pm GMT)<br \/><br \/>Monetary Policy Statement (12:15 pm GMT)<br \/><br \/>ECB Press Conference (12:45 pm GMT)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from EUR toda<\/strong>y?<br \/><br \/>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/symbols\/EURUSD\/?exchange=ICMARKETS\" title=\"\">euro <\/a>is seeing heightened attention today, Thursday, as markets focus heavily on the expected policy move from the European Central Bank. The ECB is widely anticipated to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in response to persistent inflation pressures across the eurozone, particularly rising energy costs linked to geopolitical tensions. Traders are closely watching not only the rate decision but also guidance from ECB President Christine Lagarde on whether further tightening could follow later this year. A more hawkish tone would likely support the euro, while cautious commentary could pressure it lower.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><br \/><em>Central Bank Notes:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li>The Governing Council of the ECB is expected to keep the three key interest rates unchanged at its 28\u201329 May 2026 meeting, with the main refinancing rate near 2.15%, the marginal lending facility at 2.40%, and the deposit facility at 2.00%.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Headline HICP inflation is likely to remain in the 2.0\u20132.3% range in the early months of 2026, with the March 2026 ECB staff baseline projecting an average of 2.6% for 2026, 2.0% for 2027, and 2.1% for 2028.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The updated Eurosystem staff projections for 2026 paint a picture of persistent inflation overshoot, with headline inflation averages of around 2.6% in 2026, 2.0% in 2027, and 2.1% in 2028, compared with about 1.9\u20132.1% earlier outlooks.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Real GDP growth is projected at about 0.9% in 2026, 1.3% in 2027, and 1.4% in 2028, implying around 0.2\u20130.3% quarter\u2011on\u2011quarter expansion in Q2 2026, consistent with the resilience observed at the end of 2025.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The euro area unemployment rate is expected to stay near 6.4%, with strong labour\u2011force participation and modest wage pressures underpinning consumption resilience.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The Governing Council continues to stress a meeting\u2011by\u2011meeting, data\u2011dependent approach, focusing on the path of inflation, the functioning of monetary\u2011policy transmission, and the impact of external shocks (geopolitical, energy, and trade\u2011policy related).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Balance\u2011sheet normalization proceeds smoothly, with the APP and PEPP wind\u2011downs completed and the remaining stock of longer\u2011dated assets being allowed to run off without significant liquidity shortages.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>\u200bThe next meeting is on 10 to 11 June 2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><br \/>Weak Bearish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The Swiss Franc (CHF)<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No major news event<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from CHF today?<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><br \/>Switzerland\u2019s currency, the Swiss franc (CHF), is seeing support today from ongoing safe-haven demand as traders remain cautious around geopolitical tensions and broader market uncertainty. The main focus for CHF traders is the upcoming Swiss National Bank (SNB) policy meeting on June 18, where markets largely expect interest rates to remain at 0.0%. Recent Swiss inflation data has remained modest (around 0.6% in May), reinforcing expectations that the SNB will stay cautious rather than tighten policy.<br \/><br \/><em>Central Bank Notes:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li>At its monetary policy assessment on 19 March 2026, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is widely expected to leave the policy rate unchanged at 0%, continuing the extended pause since September 2025, as the Governing Board considers current settings adequate to keep inflation near the target without resorting to negative rates.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Inflation data since December indicate persistent weakness, with headline CPI hovering around 0% year-on-year through early 2026 and core measures subdued at roughly 0.4%, underscoring limited price pressures and lingering, though contained, deflation risks.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The SNB\u2019s updated conditional inflation forecast shows minimal change from December, with averages of about 0.2% in 2025 (now complete), 0.3% in 2026, and 0.6% in 2027 under a steady 0% policy rate. However, recent flat CPI readings may slightly lower near-term expectations, preserving scope for further easing if needed.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Global conditions remain challenging, marked by U.S. tariff escalations under President Trump, subdued external demand, and uncertainties in major export markets such as Europe and the U.S., prompting the SNB to exercise caution despite resilient Swiss domestic activity.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Sentiment in manufacturing and export sectors stays soft amid franc appreciation and weaker foreign orders, squeezing margins. Yet, overall GDP growth is expected to be around 1.5% in 2026, with unemployment edging up modestly from historic lows.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The SNB reaffirms its readiness to intervene via rate cuts or FX operations should deflationary pressures intensify, while emphasizing clear communication through detailed meeting minutes and coordination with global partners on currency matters.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><br \/>The next meeting is on 18 June 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><br \/>Weak Bearish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The Pound (GBP)<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No major news event<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from GBP today?<br \/><br \/><\/strong>The British <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/symbols\/GBPUSD\/?exchange=ICMARKETS\" title=\"\">pound<\/a> (GBP) is trading cautiously today, as traders weigh a mix of upcoming UK economic data, interest rate expectations, and global risk sentiment. Sterling has been relatively steady against the U.S. dollar, hovering around the mid-1.33 area, after recent weakness caused by a stronger dollar and geopolitical tensions linked to the Middle East. Investors are now focusing on Friday\u2019s UK GDP release and next week\u2019s interest rate decision from the Bank of England (18 June), where rates are widely expected to remain at 3.75%, although guidance on future policy could significantly influence the pound.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Central Bank Notes:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li>The Bank of England\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) met on 29 April 2026, maintaining the Bank Rate at 3.75 per cent, with the decision details published on 30 April 2026 alongside the quarterly Monetary Policy Report. This hold follows the unanimous 9-0 vote at the prior 18 March 2026 meeting, amid persistent energy shocks from the Middle East conflict overriding earlier cut expectations. No specific vote split for April has been detailed yet, but consensus previews indicate a hold.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Quantitative tightening (QT) continues unchanged at the 2025 pace for gilt holdings reductions, supporting balance-sheet normalization while monitoring liquidity and maintaining restrictiveness against ongoing shocks.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Headline CPI inflation rose to 3.3% in March 2026 from energy and motor fuel surges due to Middle East tensions, expected to stay between 3% and 3.5% through the summer, well above the 2% target. The April Monetary Policy Report outlines scenarios in which inflation peaks above 3.5% by the end of 2026 in the baseline, then eases below 2% in three years, or reaches 6%+ in adverse cases requiring tighter policy.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>UK growth outlook weakens further into Q2-Q3 2026 amid energy-driven cost pressures, rising unemployment risks, and softening confidence, with prior pay growth cooling now vulnerable to business pass-throughs.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Global risks from the Middle East conflict persist, fueling energy\/commodity volatility and sterling\/gilt fluctuations; MPC views direct impacts as containable if demand slackens to curb secondary inflation effects.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Inflation risks remain upward-biased due to energy persistence, potential wage embedding, and shock duration uncertainty, balanced against downside from economic slack and labor market softening.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The MPC maintains a data-dependent stance, with policy still restrictive; the April Report provides fuller shock analysis, but no easing is signaled, yet members monitor for 2% sustainability, with Governor Bailey emphasizing vigilance.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The next meeting is on 18 June 2026.<br \/><br \/><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong>Weak Bearish<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong>The Canadian Dollar (CAD)<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong>No major news event&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from CAD today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Canadian dollar (CAD) is trading with a cautious tone today, as markets continue reacting to the Bank of Canada&#8217;s interest rate decision from yesterday. The BoC kept its benchmark rate unchanged at 2.25% for a fifth straight meeting, signaling a wait-and-see approach as policymakers balance slowing economic growth against inflation risks. Governor Tiff Macklem noted that while inflation pressures from higher energy prices are being monitored, there is still limited evidence of broad inflation spreading across the economy.<br \/>\u200b<br \/>Central Bank Notes:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li>At its 10 June 2026 meeting, the Governing Council maintained the overnight rate target at 2.25%, continuing the policy pause begun earlier in the year. The decision matched market expectations and reflected the Committee\u2019s assessment that the current stance remains appropriately restrictive to secure 2% inflation over the policy horizon.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The Bank noted persistent global headwinds: geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and renewed U.S. trade friction continue to weigh on sentiment and supply chains. These risks are asymmetric and could slow foreign demand or push commodity price volatility higher.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Real GDP growth is estimated to have continued into Q2 at roughly a 2.0\u20132.3% annualized pace, broadly consistent with the Bank\u2019s April projection of sustained momentum. Strength remained concentrated in resource shipments and exports, supported by robust global energy demand, while business investment showed only tentative improvement.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The labour market remains tight but is showing early signs of rebalancing: employment growth continued, and the unemployment rate stayed near recent lows, but wage growth has moderated from its peak. Participation edged up modestly in some regions, consistent with slower wage pressure ahead.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u200bHeadline CPI remained close to 2.0% year-over-year in April\u2013May prints, within the inflation target band. Core indicators\u2014CPI-trim, CPI-median, and a trimmed mean\u2014tracked around 2.3\u20132.6%, showing modest further easing compared with earlier in the year.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Manufacturing PMI remained in expansionary territory into May, supported by export orders and healthy energy-sector activity. Firms reported steady demand for intermediate goods, though capex intentions remain cautious.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Credit growth continued at a moderate pace. Bank lending spreads and deposit dynamics showed limited pass-through from global tightening episodes. Mortgage rates remain somewhat elevated but stable, underpinning the observed moderation in housing activity.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The next meeting is on 16 July 2026.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><br \/>Weak Bearish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Oil<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong><em><br \/><\/em><\/strong><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No major news event<br \/><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong>What can we expect from Oil today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Oil markets on Thursday are being driven almost entirely by a sharp geopolitical escalation in the Middle East. Crude prices surged more than 2% after renewed U.S. military strikes on Iranian targets and Iran\u2019s response, which included announcing restrictions\/closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for roughly a fifth of global oil flows. Brent crude climbed to around the $94\u201395 per barrel range, while WTI rose to about $91\u201392 per barrel, reflecting heightened fears of supply disruption rather than changes in demand fundamentals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><br \/><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong>Weak Bearish<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>IC Markets Global &#8211; Europe Fundamental Forecast | 11 June 2026 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":84955,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[196,215,339],"tags":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/87142"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=87142"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/87142\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":87167,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/87142\/revisions\/87167"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/84955"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=87142"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=87142"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=87142"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}