{"id":87125,"date":"2026-06-10T17:38:16","date_gmt":"2026-06-10T07:38:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/?p=87125"},"modified":"2026-06-10T17:38:17","modified_gmt":"2026-06-10T07:38:17","slug":"trade-the-euro-on-the-ecb-interest-rate-decision","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/trade-the-euro-on-the-ecb-interest-rate-decision\/","title":{"rendered":"Trade the Euro on the ECB Interest Rate Decision"},"content":{"rendered":"\n



The Euro is likely to be one of the most actively traded currencies this week as markets turn their attention to the European Central Bank’s interest rate decision on Thursday. A 25-basis point rate hike is widely expected and largely priced into current market valuations, meaning the real focus for traders will be on what comes next.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets are currently assigning around a 50% probability of another 25-basis point hike at the September meeting, and it is this expectation that could drive the biggest moves in EUR\/USD. Inflation pressures have re-emerged following the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, with Eurozone inflation accelerating to 3.2% last month and forcing investors to rethink the more dovish outlook that had been building earlier in the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As a result, traders will be paying close attention to both the ECB Policy Statement and Christine Lagarde’s press conference for any clues on how policymakers view the inflation outlook and whether they believe current geopolitical tensions will continue to feed through into prices. Equally important will be the ECB’s assessment of economic growth, which has remained sluggish across much of the region in recent months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given that the rate hike itself is largely expected, a more hawkish tone from Lagarde, particularly any indication that further tightening remains on the table, could see the Euro rally strongly with initial resistance now around the 1.1700 level. On the other hand, if the ECB adopts a more cautious stance, emphasises data dependency, or expresses increasing concern over growth prospects, the Euro could come under renewed pressure. In an environment where the US dollar continues to find support from higher interest rate expectations, any dovish surprise from the ECB may accelerate downside momentum, with the first major target for sellers sitting near this year’s lows just above the 1.1400 level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Resistance 2: 1.1848 \u2013 April High<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Resistance 1: 1.1695 \u2013 Trendline Resistance<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Support 1: 1.1499 \u2013 Trendline Support<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Support 2: 1.1410 \u2013 2026 Low<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The accuracy, completeness and timeliness of the information contained on this site cannot be guaranteed. IC Markets Global does not warranty, guarantee or make any representations, or assume any liability regarding financial results based on the use of the information in the site.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

News, views, opinions, recommendations and other information obtained from sources outside of www.icmarkets.com, used in this site are believed to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee their accuracy or completeness. All such information is subject to change at any time without notice. IC Markets Global assumes no responsibility for the content of any linked site.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The fact that such links may exist does not indicate approval or endorsement of any material contained on any linked site. IC Markets Global is not liable for any harm caused by the transmission, through accessing the services or information on this site, of a computer virus, or other computer code or programming device that might be used to access, delete, damage, disable, disrupt or otherwise impede in any manner, the operation of the site or of any user\u2019s software, hardware, data or property. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Euro is likely to be one of the most actively […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":87127,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[462],"tags":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/87125"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=87125"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/87125\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":87128,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/87125\/revisions\/87128"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/87127"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=87125"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=87125"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=87125"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}