{"id":86820,"date":"2026-06-02T18:35:24","date_gmt":"2026-06-02T08:35:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/?p=86820"},"modified":"2026-06-02T18:35:25","modified_gmt":"2026-06-02T08:35:25","slug":"ic-markets-gobal-europe-fundamental-forecast-02-june-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/ic-markets-gobal-europe-fundamental-forecast-02-june-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"IC Markets Gobal &#8211; Europe Fundamental Forecast | 02 June 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>IC Markets Global &#8211; Europe Fundamental Forecast | 02 June 2026<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What happened in the Asia session?<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong>Geopolitical whipsaw over Middle East peace talks, where conflicting headlines about Iran suspending negotiations, followed by Trump&#8217;s reassurances that talks continued, created risk-averse sentiment that capped AI-driven optimism. This uncertainty knocked Asian equities lower (Nikkei -0.7%, KOSPI -2%, MSCI Asia-Pacific ex-Japan -0.5%), while Brent crude held near $95\/barrel on supply disruption fears from the three-month U.S.-Iran war.<br \/><br \/><strong>What does it mean for the Europe &amp; US sessions?<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><br \/>Alphabet&#8217;s announcement of an $80 billion equity raise, including a $10 billion private investment from Berkshire Hathaway, to fund massive AI infrastructure expansion amid surging demand that exceeds available supply. This underscores Big Tech&#8217;s unprecedented capital spending race in AI. Traders should also watch the Eurozone&#8217;s May CPI flash estimate at 10:00 GMT, which will inform ECB policy decisions following April&#8217;s inflation rise to 3%.<br \/>\u200b<br \/><strong>The Dollar Index (DXY)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>JOLTS Job Openings (2:00 pm GMT)<br \/><br \/><strong>What can we expect from DXY today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The dollar traded steady-to-slightly-higher on Tuesday, at approximately 99.20 on the dollar index, recovering from a weak week as investors digested delicate Middle East peace negotiations and braced for crucial U.S. jobs data that could influence Fed rate decisions. With inflation concerns persisting and geopolitical risks unchanged, the greenback remains supported as a safe haven, though markets are watching closely for any central bank signals on whether rates may need to increase if the Iran conflict escalates inflation further.<br \/><br \/><em>Central Bank Notes:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li>The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to hold the federal funds rate target range steady at 3.50%\u20133.75% at its April 28\u201329, 2026, meeting, as oil prices remain elevated around $108 per barrel for Brent crude amid ongoing US-Israel tensions with Iran, alongside surging inflation from energy shocks, further delaying any 2026 rate cuts potentially beyond September.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The Committee continues to pursue maximum employment and 2% inflation goals, with the labor market showing mixed signals as nonfarm payrolls rose by 178,000 in March 2026\u2014beating lowered expectations but driven partly by strike reversals\u2014and the unemployment rate edged down to 4.3% from 4.4% in February.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Officials face heightened risks from geopolitical tensions, soaring oil prices, and accelerating inflation, with CPI jumping to 3.3% year-over-year in March 2026 from 2.4% in February due to a 10.9% monthly energy surge, headline PCE pressured higher, and core PCE estimates around 3.1% or more.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Economic activity continues to cool after robust Q4 2025 growth near 5%, with the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimating Q1 2026 growth at 1.3% amid softer consumer spending, strike impacts, and labor data despite some resilience.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>March 2026&#8217;s Summary of Economic Projections forecasts 2026 unemployment at a median around 4.4%, GDP growth revised higher, and core PCE up to 2.7%, with the dot plot still signaling one cut in 2026 to a median 3.25%\u20133.50% funds rate amid softer labor but inflation upticks.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The Committee maintains its data-dependent stance amid a mixed labor market, inflation well above target from oil shocks, and geopolitical risks, likely holding rates at 3.50%-3.75% with persistent divisions and hawkish tones on cuts.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The FOMC continues its adjusted quantitative tightening, with Treasury rolloff caps at $5 billion per month and agency MBS at $35 billion per month to manage reserves amid post-2025 balance sheet adjustments.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The FOMC continues its adjusted quantitative tightening, with Treasury rolloff caps at $5 billion per month and agency MBS at $35 billion per month to ensure ample reserves post-2025 program adjustments.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The next meeting is scheduled for 16 to 17&nbsp; June 2026.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><br \/>Weak Bearish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Gold (XAU)<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong>JOLTS Job Openings (2:00 pm GMT)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from Gold today?<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong>Gold continues its corrective phase today as high US interest rates persistently pressure the non-yielding asset, with prices trading below the Bollinger Band midline near \u20b9160,600 (approximately $4,500) and momentum remaining weak. After Goldman Sachs&#8217; earlier forecast of gold hitting $4,000 by June 2026 (which it has already surpassed, now trading near $4,485), the market is now in consolidation mode with traders watching whether prices can reclaim resistance around $4,600 or break below support at $4,500 and $4,200.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><br \/><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias&nbsp; &nbsp; <\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong>Weak Bullish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The Euro (EUR)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><br \/><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Core CPI Flash Estimate y\/y (9:00 am GMT)<br \/><br \/>CPI Flash Estimate y\/y (9:00 am GMT)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from EUR toda<\/strong>y?<br \/><br \/>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/symbols\/EURUSD\/?exchange=ICMARKETS\" title=\"\">euro<\/a> is trading marginally higher against the dollar at 1.1634, showing modest stability after recent volatility. While no major euro-specific announcements emerged today, broader European news includes the European Commission launching a new plan to phase out animal testing for chemical safety assessments starting June 1, 2026. The EU is also implementing new building energy efficiency rules and addressing record humanitarian needs affecting 239 million people globally in 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><br \/><em>Central Bank Notes:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li>The Governing Council of the ECB is expected to keep the three key interest rates unchanged at its 28\u201329 May 2026 meeting, with the main refinancing rate near 2.15%, the marginal lending facility at 2.40%, and the deposit facility at 2.00%.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Headline HICP inflation is likely to remain in the 2.0\u20132.3% range in the early months of 2026, with the March 2026 ECB staff baseline projecting an average of 2.6% for 2026, 2.0% for 2027, and 2.1% for 2028.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The updated Eurosystem staff projections for 2026 paint a picture of persistent inflation overshoot, with headline inflation averages of around 2.6% in 2026, 2.0% in 2027, and 2.1% in 2028, compared with about 1.9\u20132.1% earlier outlooks.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Real GDP growth is projected at about 0.9% in 2026, 1.3% in 2027, and 1.4% in 2028, implying around 0.2\u20130.3% quarter\u2011on\u2011quarter expansion in Q2 2026, consistent with the resilience observed at the end of 2025.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The euro area unemployment rate is expected to stay near 6.4%, with strong labour\u2011force participation and modest wage pressures underpinning consumption resilience.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The Governing Council continues to stress a meeting\u2011by\u2011meeting, data\u2011dependent approach, focusing on the path of inflation, the functioning of monetary\u2011policy transmission, and the impact of external shocks (geopolitical, energy, and trade\u2011policy related).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Balance\u2011sheet normalization proceeds smoothly, with the APP and PEPP wind\u2011downs completed and the remaining stock of longer\u2011dated assets being allowed to run off without significant liquidity shortages.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>\u200bThe next meeting is on 10 to 11 June 2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><br \/>Medium Bullish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The Swiss Franc (CHF)<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No major news event<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from CHF today?<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><br \/>The Swiss franc has recently experienced a slight decline, weakening 0.32% over the past month as the US dollar gained ground, with USD\/CHF rising to 0.7864 on June 1, 2026. This follows a broader 2025-2026 trend where the franc appreciated over 12% in 2025 and reached 15-year highs against the dollar in early 2026 due to safe-haven flows amid global geopolitical uncertainty and tariff disruptions.<br \/><br \/><em>Central Bank Notes:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li>At its monetary policy assessment on 19 March 2026, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is widely expected to leave the policy rate unchanged at 0%, continuing the extended pause since September 2025, as the Governing Board considers current settings adequate to keep inflation near the target without resorting to negative rates.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Inflation data since December indicate persistent weakness, with headline CPI hovering around 0% year-on-year through early 2026 and core measures subdued at roughly 0.4%, underscoring limited price pressures and lingering, though contained, deflation risks.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The SNB\u2019s updated conditional inflation forecast shows minimal change from December, with averages of about 0.2% in 2025 (now complete), 0.3% in 2026, and 0.6% in 2027 under a steady 0% policy rate. However, recent flat CPI readings may slightly lower near-term expectations, preserving scope for further easing if needed.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Global conditions remain challenging, marked by U.S. tariff escalations under President Trump, subdued external demand, and uncertainties in major export markets such as Europe and the U.S., prompting the SNB to exercise caution despite resilient Swiss domestic activity.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Sentiment in manufacturing and export sectors stays soft amid franc appreciation and weaker foreign orders, squeezing margins. Yet, overall GDP growth is expected to be around 1.5% in 2026, with unemployment edging up modestly from historic lows.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The SNB reaffirms its readiness to intervene via rate cuts or FX operations should deflationary pressures intensify, while emphasizing clear communication through detailed meeting minutes and coordination with global partners on currency matters.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><br \/>The next meeting is on 18 June 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><br \/>Medium Bullish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The Pound (GBP)<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>BOE Gov Bailey Speaks (2:00 pm GMT)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from GBP today?<br \/><br \/><\/strong>The<a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/symbols\/GBPUSD\/?exchange=ICMARKETS\" title=\"\"> pound<\/a> is trading slightly lower at $1.3453, continuing a modest monthly weakness despite earlier gains in May driven by the IMF&#8217;s upgraded UK growth outlook. The currency remains under pressure from ongoing geopolitical risks around the Iran conflict and domestic economic uncertainties, even as the UK economy demonstrated solid Q1 growth. Market participants are closely monitoring how Middle East tensions and energy prices will impact the Bank of England&#8217;s monetary policy path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Central Bank Notes:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li>The Bank of England\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) met on 29 April 2026, maintaining the Bank Rate at 3.75 per cent, with the decision details published on 30 April 2026 alongside the quarterly Monetary Policy Report. This hold follows the unanimous 9-0 vote at the prior 18 March 2026 meeting, amid persistent energy shocks from the Middle East conflict overriding earlier cut expectations. No specific vote split for April has been detailed yet, but consensus previews indicate a hold.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Quantitative tightening (QT) continues unchanged at the 2025 pace for gilt holdings reductions, supporting balance-sheet normalization while monitoring liquidity and maintaining restrictiveness against ongoing shocks.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Headline CPI inflation rose to 3.3% in March 2026 from energy and motor fuel surges due to Middle East tensions, expected to stay between 3% and 3.5% through the summer, well above the 2% target. The April Monetary Policy Report outlines scenarios in which inflation peaks above 3.5% by the end of 2026 in the baseline, then eases below 2% in three years, or reaches 6%+ in adverse cases requiring tighter policy.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>UK growth outlook weakens further into Q2-Q3 2026 amid energy-driven cost pressures, rising unemployment risks, and softening confidence, with prior pay growth cooling now vulnerable to business pass-throughs.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Global risks from the Middle East conflict persist, fueling energy\/commodity volatility and sterling\/gilt fluctuations; MPC views direct impacts as containable if demand slackens to curb secondary inflation effects.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Inflation risks remain upward-biased due to energy persistence, potential wage embedding, and shock duration uncertainty, balanced against downside from economic slack and labor market softening.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The MPC maintains a data-dependent stance, with policy still restrictive; the April Report provides fuller shock analysis, but no easing is signaled, yet members monitor for 2% sustainability, with Governor Bailey emphasizing vigilance.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The next meeting is on 18 June 2026.<br \/><br \/><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong>Weak Bullish<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong>The Canadian Dollar (CAD)<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong>No major news event &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from CAD today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Canadian dollar has weakened recently against the U.S. dollar, trading around 1.3842 as of June 1, driven by divergent monetary policy expectations, wider U.S.-Canada yield spreads, and geopolitical safe-haven demand for the greenback. While the CAD has declined 1.59% over the past month, analysts remain moderately optimistic with UBS targeting 1.34 USD\/CAD for June 2026 and TD predicting the loonie will reclaim 75 cents U.S. by year-end as Canada&#8217;s economy recovers from U.S. trade policy impacts.<br \/>\u200b<br \/>Central Bank Notes:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li>The Governing Council held the overnight rate target steady at 2.25% at its 28-29 April 2026 meeting, matching consensus expectations and prolonging the policy pause as inflation trends firmer toward target. The Bank highlighted lingering global headwinds from Middle East tensions and U.S. tariff escalations under Trump, but confirmed the stance continues fostering disinflation amid moderating energy volatility.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>U.S. trade frictions and geopolitical strains persist in dampening sentiment, yet Canadian manufacturing PMI strengthened further in expansion, driven by robust export orders tied to sustained energy demand. Goods exports, anchored by crude oil, maintained strength through March, countering subdued capex as businesses emphasize operational buffers over expansion.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Economic growth extended into Q2 2026 at roughly 2.1% annualized, sustaining Q1&#8217;s momentum via resource shipments, public spending, and industrial recovery. March preliminary figures suggest resilient expansion, tempered slightly by seasonal factors and lingering supply disruptions.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Services PMI rose deeper into expansion territory, with gains across tech, leisure, and professional services; consumer segments showed firmer footing from wage gains, despite elevated prices curbing non-essentials. The Bank views this breadth as signaling a balanced, sustainable upturn.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u200bNational housing resales climbed modestly in March alongside stable prices, supported by steady rates and regional affordability pockets, as inventory accumulation in key markets avoids sharp imbalances. Policymakers expect gradual softening, underpinned by sound lending standards and consistent household dynamics.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Headline CPI held near 2.0% year-over-year in March 2026 prints, within the target band, with core metrics like CPI-trim and median easing to around 2.5% on easing food, goods, and partial shelter relief. This bolsters confidence in inflation&#8217;s durable path to 2%.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Officials affirmed 2.25% appropriately positions the economy for 2% inflation stability and orderly rebalancing, with cuts off the table absent growth or price setbacks. Focus shifts to Q2 momentum, core trends, and trade\/geopolitical developments ahead of June.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The next meeting is on 10 June 2026.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><br \/>Weak Bearish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Oil<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong><em><br \/><\/em><\/strong><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>API Crude Oil Stock (8:30 pm GMT)<br \/><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong>What can we expect from Oil today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Oil prices held steady on Tuesday, building on Monday&#8217;s gains as global markets weighed conflicting signals about US-Iran ceasefire negotiations and the fate of the Strait of Hormuz. While President Trump indicated talks were continuing and hinted at a potential deal within the week that could reopen the strategic waterway, Iranian media reported that Tehran had suspended indirect negotiations, creating market uncertainty.<br \/><br \/><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong>Medium Bearish<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>IC Markets Global &#8211; Europe Fundamental Forecast | 02 June 2026 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":84955,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[196,215,339],"tags":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/86820"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=86820"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/86820\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":86847,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/86820\/revisions\/86847"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/84955"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=86820"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=86820"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=86820"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}