{"id":83484,"date":"2026-02-18T18:05:53","date_gmt":"2026-02-18T07:05:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/?p=83484"},"modified":"2026-04-01T19:21:52","modified_gmt":"2026-04-01T08:21:52","slug":"trade-usdjpy-on-the-us-core-pce-price-index-data-release","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/trade-usdjpy-on-the-us-core-pce-price-index-data-release\/","title":{"rendered":"Trade USDJPY on the US Core PCE Price Index Data release"},"content":{"rendered":"\n



The Federal Reserve\u2019s favourite inflation indicator is set to be released in the last trading session of the week on Friday, and all indicators are pointing to this being a crucial data point with regard to when we see the next interest rate cut from the FOMC. Wednesday\u2019s Fed minutes look likely to confirm that most current members still have a significant concern with the level of inflation in the economy and therefore anything off expectation with the PCE data should see big moves in the market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The market is expecting the month-on-month number to show a 0.3% increase with the year-on-year data coming in around 2.9% or 3% which is still well above the FOMC\u2019s desired 2% target. Anything off these expectations is likely to see big moves in Fed rate expectations and therefore a strong reaction in the dollar, anything +\/- 0.2% on either metric should lead to extensive moves and provide traders with good trading opportunities on the release<\/p>\n\n\n\n

USDJPY is again nicely place for big moves on this data as it could reflect a bigger disparity in interest rate differentials removing forward, especially if the data comes out lower increasing the likelihood and speed of a Fed rate cut against an anticipated Bank of Japan hike. USDJPY has decreased sharply over the last week since election results were announced confirming a majority for PM Takaichi and these moves should see an exacerbated reaction to Friday\u2019s data with a lower result likely to see a challenge of recent lows and possibly a break south, whilst a stronger number may get a bigger move north back into recent ranges.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Resistance 2: 156.74 \u2013 Trendline Resistance<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Resistance 1: 154.65 \u2013 February 11 High<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Support 1: 152.25 \u2013 February Low<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Support 2: 151.24 \u2013 Long-Term Trendline Support<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

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The Federal Reserve\u2019s favourite inflation indicator is set to be released […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":83486,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[308,462],"tags":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/83484"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=83484"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/83484\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":83487,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/83484\/revisions\/83487"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/83486"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=83484"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=83484"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=83484"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}