{"id":61777,"date":"2023-03-20T14:24:53","date_gmt":"2023-03-20T03:24:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/?p=61777"},"modified":"2023-03-21T14:26:03","modified_gmt":"2023-03-21T03:26:03","slug":"ic-markets-europe-fundamental-forecast-20-march-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/ic-markets-europe-fundamental-forecast-20-march-2023\/","title":{"rendered":"IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 20 March 2023"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 20 March 2023<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What happened in the Asian session?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The BOJ Summary of Opinions noted that members stressed the need for maintaining significant stimulus to support the economy and achieve the 2% inflation target. However, some expressed concerns about yield curve distortions, even after raising the 10-year bond yield cap from 0.25% to 0.5% in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The latest data of 0.8% for the Rightmove HPI m\/m, up from the previous data of 0.0%, could positively impact the GBP, reflecting a healthy housing market and a potential increase in consumer spending.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What does it mean for the Europe &amp; US Sessions?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The fallout of Credit Suisse, even after being taken over by UBS, is likely to hurt risk sentiment. As a result, risk assets will likely take a hit in the upcoming sessions, while safe havens should outperform. Gold can be expected to reach the 2020 &amp; 2022 highs of around $2,070 this week.<br \/><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The Dollar Index (DXY)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No major news events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from DXY today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The DXY may draw price direction from previously released Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment showing a lower value. This could lead to a decline in the USD due to weaker economic growth and lower consumer spending.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Central Bank Notes:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li>The Committee has raised the federal funds rate target range to 4.5-4.75% and plans to continue increasing it to return inflation to 2%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The Committee will monitor incoming information and adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate to achieve its goals<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>A majority vote from the Committee supported the decision to raise the target range<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Next meeting is on 23 March 2023<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Weak Bearish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Gold (XAU)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No major news events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from Gold today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Given the current uncertainty surrounding the central banks&#8217; recent rescue packages for the banking sectors, it is probable that gold will reach its 2020\/2022 highs of approximately $2,070.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bullish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The Australian Dollar (AUD)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No major news events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from AUD today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>RBA Assistant Governor Kent is probably among the first central bankers to have said to consider the liquidity-driven financial crisis in formulating interest rate decisions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Central Bank Notes:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li>Cash rate raised by 25 basis points to 3.60%.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Board prioritises returning inflation to target, with a likely need for further monetary policy tightening.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Board to closely monitor the global economy, household spending trends, inflation and labour market outlook when assessing interest rate increases.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Next meeting on 4 April 2023<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mixed<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No major news events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from NZD today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No major news event for the NZD today. The upcoming Trade Balance figures (-1450M) may influence the price direction south as its imports are likely more significant than its exports, compared to the previous figure of -1954M.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Central Bank Notes:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li>Monetary Policy Committee increased the OCR from 4.25% to 4.75%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Higher interest rates are needed to reduce inflation and support employment sustainably<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Severe storms in North Island will increase inflation and disrupt production.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Next meeting is on 5 April 2023<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Weak Bearish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The Japanese Yen (JPY)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No major news events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from JPY today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If the central bank expresses concern about the economy or suggests that it may pursue a looser monetary policy in the Summary of Opinions, the JPY could weaken.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Central Bank Notes:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li>The bank will continue with QQE with Yield Curve Control to achieve the price stability target of 2%&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Japan&#8217;s economy is expected to recover gradually<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The bank will not hesitate to take additional easing measures if necessary<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Next meeting is on 27 April 2023&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mixed<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The Euro (EUR)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No major news events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from EUR today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The upcoming data releases for the EUR are expected to have a moderate impact. German PPI is forecasted to decrease by 1.3% (-1.0% previous), while the trade balance will likely improve to -17.3B (-18.1B previous). The German Buba Monthly Report may not significantly affect the market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Central Bank Notes:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li>ECB raised interest rates by 50 basis points to ensure the 2% inflation target is met<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Inflation is projected to average 5.3% in 2023, with growth at 1%, and underlying price pressures remain strong<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The bank will continue to monitor market tensions closely and will be data-dependent in its policy rate decisions<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Next meeting on 4 May 2023<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mixed<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The Swiss Franc (CHF)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No major news events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from CHF today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As there are no significant news events for the CHF today, the direction of its price will be dependent on forthcoming data. Switzerland&#8217;s forecasted trade balance figure of 3.45B (previous 5.08B) indicates a decrease in Swiss exports or an increase in Swiss imports. If the expected figure is realised, it could be negative for the CHF, suggesting weaker export performance.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Central Bank Notes:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li>Current policy rate is at 1.00%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Next meeting on 23 March 2023<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Weak Bearish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The Pound (GBP)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No major news events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from GBP today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Rightmove House Price Index month-over-month is unlikely to impact the GBP significantly. However, it could still have some minor influence, as any change in the housing market could affect the country\u2019s overall economic outlook.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Central Bank Notes:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li>MPC voted to increase Bank Rate by 0.5 percentage points to 4%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Near-term data developments are crucial in assessing how quickly external and domestic inflationary pressures will abate<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>MPC&#8217;s updated projections show CPI inflation falling back sharply from its current level<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Next meeting on 23 March 2023&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Mixed<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The Canadian Dollar (CAD)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No major news events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from CAD today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>CAD will likely draw direction from previously released data as today sees no significant news event. Foreign Securities Purchases at 4.21B (14.25B forecast, 21.22B previous), IPPI m\/m -0.8% (-0.3% forecast, 0.3% previous), and RMPI m\/m -0.4% (-0.2% forecast, -0.2% previous).&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Central Bank Notes:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li>Bank of Canada maintains its target for the overnight rate at 4.5%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Inflation eased in January, but price increases for food and shelter remain high<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>BOC is prepared to increase the policy rate further to return inflation to the 2% target.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Next meeting on 12 April 2023<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Weak Bearish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Oil<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No major news events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from Oil today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Recession risks, fears of further bank failures, and lower demand expectations from China could continue to pressure oil prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Weak Bearish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 20 March 2023 What happened [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":59489,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[196,215],"tags":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/61777"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=61777"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/61777\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":61810,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/61777\/revisions\/61810"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/59489"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=61777"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=61777"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=61777"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}