{"id":37376,"date":"2019-11-07T14:10:17","date_gmt":"2019-11-07T03:10:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/?p=37376"},"modified":"2025-11-17T16:53:02","modified_gmt":"2025-11-17T05:53:02","slug":"thursday-7th-november-havens-gather-momentum-on-news-novembers-phase-one-deal-signing-could-be-delayed-to-december","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/thursday-7th-november-havens-gather-momentum-on-news-novembers-phase-one-deal-signing-could-be-delayed-to-december\/","title":{"rendered":"Thursday 7th November: Havens gather momentum on news November\u2019s phase one deal signing could be delayed to December."},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Key risk events today:<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

EU Economic Forecasts; BoE Monetary\nPolicy Report, MPC Official Bank Rate Votes; BoE Monetary Policy Summary and Official\nBank Rate; BoE Gov. Mark Carney Speaks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EUR\/USD:<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Europe\u2019s shared currency shifts into Thursday a shade lower against the buck, retreating from Wednesday\u2019s high at 1.1092. Tier-1 macroeconomic data was limited Wednesday, though better-than-expected Eurozone services PMIs did provide fresh impetus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On\nthe technical front, H4 price left 1.11 unchallenged and chalked up a strong\nfull-bodied bearish candle going into US hours. As underscored in Wednesday\u2019s\ntechnical research, a distinct double-top pattern has formed (peaks plotted at\n1.1179\/1.1175) after breaking the 1.1073 October 24 low (the confirmation point).\nSome technicians would label the peaks as an \u2018eve and eve\u2019 formation, considered\nto be a higher-probability pattern. The next downside target on this scale can\nbe seen at the 1.10 handle, sited close by September\u2019s opening level at 1.0989\nand a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement ratio at 1.0994.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On\nmore of a broader outlook, sellers show promise at the underside of the current\nweekly resistance area drawn from 1.1119-1.1295. Further downside from this\npoint could make a run for the lower limit of the descending channel taken from\nthe low 1.1109\/the 2016 yearly opening level at 1.0873. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Daily\nsupport at 1.1084 was mildly engulfed Tuesday, and was retested as resistance\nyesterday. The move exposes the 50-day SMA (blue \u2013 1.1038) which appears to\nhave begun flattening. Beyond this line, limited support is visible until crossing\npaths with familiar demand at 1.0851-1.0950 \u2013 houses the 2016 yearly opening\nlevel mentioned above on the weekly timeframe at 1.0873.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Areas of\nconsideration:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In similar fashion to Wednesday\u2019s\noutlook, all three timeframes reflect a somewhat bearish vibe. The confirmation\nof the H4 double-top pattern, reinforced by a weekly resistance area at 1.1119-1.1295\nas well as daily support recently giving way at 1.1084 and serving as\nresistance, is likely enough to entice sellers towards the 1.10 neighbourhood.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Traders considering a short based on the\nH4 double top pattern may already be in the market; others, however, may have\nentered on yesterday\u2019s pullback. Although the H4 timeframe appears set to explore\nlower ground, a retest of the 1.11 handle is still not out of the question. In\nfact, this would be an ideal location to consider shorts at this point, as\nlower-timeframe buy stops would likely be filled above yesterday\u2019s high 1.1092,\nconsequently providing liquidity for a push lower.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

GBP\/USD:<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Limited macroeconomic data out of the UK\nas well as the political front remaining subdued saw the British pound shed\nmore than 25 points, or 0.20%, against the US dollar Wednesday. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tuesday\u2019s retest at the underside of\n1.29 on the H4 timeframe, shaped by way of a shooting star candlestick\nformation (considered a bearish signal), is so far holding ground. To the left\nof current price, limited demand is visible \u2013 note 1.2845 and 1.2806 (black\narrows) resemble possible consumption tails \u2013 until reaching potential support\noff the 1.28 region. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Downside was further confirmed Wednesday\nafter the daily channel resistance-turned support (extended from the high\n1.2582) gave way, consequently exposing daily support pencilled in at 1.2769, closely\nshadowed by the 200-day SMA (orange \u2013 1.2703).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With respect to the weekly timeframe, price\naction has entered a somewhat indecisive phase over the past two weeks. A\nretest at 1.2739 or additional upside towards supply at 1.3472-1.3204\/long-term\ntrend line resistance etched from the high 1.5930 is certainly something to\nkeep an eye out for, however. The immediate trend faces a downward trajectory\nfrom 1.4376, with a break of the 1.1904 low (labelled potential support)\nconfirming the larger downtrend from 1.7191.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Areas of consideration:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Whether the H4 shooting star candlestick\nconfiguration was enough evidence to sell (before the daily channel support was\nengulfed) was, of course, trader dependent. Yesterday\u2019s downside break of daily\nchannel support certainly adds weight to the setup and may encourage additional\nselling today.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Irrespective of the entry measure, 1.28\nrepresents an initial take-profit target. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Beneath 1.28, shaded in grey, the\n1.2739\/1.2769 area is also likely of interest as potential support (and a final\ntake-profit target for shorts), made up of weekly and daily supports\nhighlighted above. This area marks an ideal location to bounce from in the\nevent of a fakeout beyond 1.28.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

AUD\/USD:<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Down 0.10%, the Australian dollar ceded ground to the buck Wednesday as latest headlines reported November\u2019s phase one deal signing could be delayed to December, according to Reuters citing a US official. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Recent\nselling pressured H4 flow south of its 0.69 handle and through orders at trend\nline support extended from the low 0.6723, as well as support drawn from\n0.6883, which is now holding as resistance. Further selling from here has\nsupport coming in at 0.6809 in sight, along with another trend line support\netched from the low 0.6670 and the psychological level 0.68.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With\nrespect to the bigger picture, structure remains unchanged from yesterday\u2019s\ntechnical briefing:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Weekly price is seen toying with the upper edge of its consolidation zone between 0.6894\/0.6677 (light grey). Buying could see the 2019 yearly opening level at 0.7042 enter the fray, though do remain cognisant of the primary downtrend which has essentially been in play since early 2018.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Before pressing for higher ground on the weekly timeframe, daily traders must contend with a swing resistance plotted at 0.6910, a trend line resistance (extended from the high 0.7393) and a 200-day SMA (orange \u2013 0.6948). The 50-day SMA (blue \u2013 0.6809) currently faces northbound, while the said 200-day SMA still points south. It may also interest some traders that a violation of the 200-day SMA potentially clears the runway for an advance towards Quasimodo resistance at 0.7047, closely followed by another layer of resistance priced in at 0.7062 (set nearby the 2019 yearly opening level on the weekly timeframe at 0.7042).<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Areas of consideration:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The H4 close beneath H4 trend line\nsupport mentioned above at 0.6723\/support at 0.6883 will possibly be viewed as\na bearish indicator today, targeting H4 support coming in at 0.6809\/trend line\nsupport etched from the low 0.6670. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Conservative traders may opt to wait and\nsee if a retest forms prior to pulling the trigger, though, as this helps\nidentify seller intent as well as providing additional entry and risk levels to\nwork with. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Should the current H4 candle close as is\noff the underside of resistance at 0.6883, this may be considered a sell signal\nby some traders; others, however, may require a retest of 0.69. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

USD\/JPY:<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

USD\/JPY bulls failed to sustain gains\nnorth of the 109 handle on the H4 timeframe in recent sessions, as latest\nheadlines reported November\u2019s phase one deal signing could be delayed to\nDecember, according to Reuters citing a US official. Support on the H4 scale\nappears limited, according to our technical studies. Trend line support\n(extended from the low 104.44) may offer a possible \u2018floor\u2019, though at this\npoint traders\u2019 crosshairs will likely be fixed on the 108 handle\/October\u2019s\nopening level priced in at 108.07.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On more of a wider perspective, technical\nresearch on the daily timeframe has resistance in play at 109.17, which aligns\nclosely with the 200-day SMA (orange \u2013 109.02). 109.17, as underscored in\nyesterday\u2019s technical outlook, is a key level, boasting significant history.\nHigher up on the curve, nonetheless, we have weekly price threatening a move to\nthe 2019 yearly opening level at 109.68 and a 127.2% Fibonacci ext. point at\n109.56 (taken from the low 104.44).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Areas of consideration:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Wednesday\u2019s technical outlook had the\nfollowing to report:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

109 on the H4 is a key barrier this\nmorning. <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

A decisive rejection off the top edge of\n109 suggests weakness around daily resistance mentioned above at 109.17 and a\npotential run to the 2019 yearly opening level at 109.68 on the weekly scale. A\nclose above 109.17 on a H4 closing basis is likely sufficient to consider a\nbullish theme.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

A violation of 109, on the other hand,\nhelps validate a downside bias from daily resistance at 109.17 and perhaps\nclears the runway south to H4 trend line support pencilled in from the low\n104.44, followed by October\u2019s opening level at 108.07\/the 1.08 handle. A H4\nclose beneath 109 followed up with a retest that holds is likely enough to\nattract sellers into the market. <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Should the current H4 candle close as\nis, therefore, this may be viewed as a signal to sell, with protective\nstop-loss orders sited above daily resistance at 109.17.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

USD\/CAD:<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Crude oil snapped a three-day winning\nstreak Wednesday as risk appetite cooled, along with a bearish inventory\nreport. WTI selling weighed on the Canadian dollar, consequently lifting\nUSD\/CAD 0.20% higher. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Technical action on the weekly timeframe\nexhibits a bullish presence at the moment as buyers extend last week\u2019s recovery\nof trend line support (extended from the low 1.2061) in reasonably strong\nfashion. Additional upside from this point has tops around 1.3342 in sight,\nclosely followed by the 2017 yearly opening level at 1.3434 and trend line\nresistance taken from the peak at 1.3661.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key observation on the daily\ntimeframe is supply at 1.3239-1.3199. Intersecting with this area is the 50-day\nSMA (blue \u2013 1.3211), with the 200-day SMA (orange \u2013 1.3273) positioned a few\npoints above.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

USD\/CAD movement recently re-entered a\nfamiliar resistance area between 1.32\/1.3187 on the H4 scale (comprised of a\n50.0% retracement ratio at 1.3194, August\u2019s opening level at 1.3187 and a trend\nline support-turned resistance etched from the low 1.3134). Note this area also\nunites with the underside of daily supply mentioned above at 1.3239-1.3199 and\nthe approach, on the H4 timeframe, forms by way of an ABCD correction (red\narrows). <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Areas of consideration:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The H4 resistance area at 1.32\/1.3187 is\nlikely eyed by a number of traders this morning for possible shorting\nopportunities. Not only is it bolstered by daily supply at 1.3239-1.3199, it\nalso comes with a H4 ABCD approach (red arrows). <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Conservative sellers may look to enter\nat current price, though position protective stop-loss orders above the top\nedge of daily supply at 1.3239. An alternative is to wait and see if H4 action produces\na bearish candlestick signal and then base entry and risk levels off this\nstructure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

USD\/CHF:<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

USD\/CHF prices finished unmoved Wednesday,\nranging no more than 25 points on the day. Considering yesterday\u2019s lacklustre\nperformance, the following report will echo thoughts put forward in Wednesday\u2019s\ntechnical research.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The technical setting on USD\/CHF has the\nH4 candles firm above the 0.99 handle and challenging trend line resistance\nextended from the high 1.0027. A violation of this structure implies a possible\nmove to the 0.9970 October 28 high, closely trailed by October\u2019s opening level\nat 0.9977. It may also interest some traders to note the relative strength\nindex (RSI) is seen topping just south of overbought terrain. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

With reference to the higher timeframes,\nsupply at 1.0014-0.9892 on the weekly timeframe has remained at the forefront\nof this market since early September. An upside move out of the said supply may\ndraw in Quasimodo resistance at 1.0124, while downside has the 2018 yearly\nopening level at 0.9744 in view. According to the primary trend, price reflects\na slightly bullish tone; however, do remain aware we have been rangebound since\nthe later part of 2015 (0.9444\/1.0240). <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Daily flow recently crossed back above\nthe 50-day SMA (blue \u2013 0.9916), consequently exposing the 200-day SMA (orange \u2013\n0.9953), followed by a nearby area of familiar resistance at 1.0010\/0.9986.\nNote yesterday\u2019s action formed an indecision doji candlestick pattern off the noted\n50-day SMA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Areas of consideration:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With the 50\/200-day SMAs closing in on\neach other, direction on the daily timeframe is limited for the time being. The\nfact the 50-day SMA offers support at the moment places a bold question mark on\nthe current H4 trend line resistance. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The green area on the H4 scale between\n1.0000 (parity), Quasimodo resistance at 0.9989 and October\u2019s opening level at\n0.9977 is still likely of interest for shorts. Not only is it positioned within\nthe walls of the current weekly supply, the H4 zone is also glued to the\nunderside of the noted daily resistance area. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Dow Jones Industrial Average:<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Major US equity benchmarks wrapped up Wednesday\nmixed as investors continue to digest the latest rally that lifted Wall\nStreet’s three main indexes to fresh all-time highs. The Dow Jones industrial\naverage closed unchanged; the S&P 500 added 2.15 points, or 0.07% and the\ntech-heavy Nasdaq 100 erased 14.15 points, or 0.17%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The\nDow registered an all-time high of 27498 Tuesday, though closed in the shape of\na daily shooting star candlestick formation (considered a bearish signal). So far,\nthe sellers have been unable to capitalise on the recent topping formation,\nthough at the same time, the buyers also lack oomph.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As\nunderlined in Wednesday\u2019s technical briefing, with little stopping the index\nfrom exploring higher ground, the daily bearish candlestick motion might just\nbe enough to force a retest at weekly support coming in at 27335.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Areas of consideration: <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Outlook unchanged.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Weekly support at 27335 is central to\ntoday\u2019s outlook. A retest of this level, preferably by way of a H4 bullish\ncandlestick formation (entry and risk can then be set according to this\nstructure), is likely enough to entice buyers into the market. Once\/if the\ntrade moves in favour, trailing the position behind swing lows is an option. <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

XAU\/USD (GOLD):<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The price of gold, in $ terms, printed a\nmodest recovery Wednesday, reclaiming a portion of Tuesday\u2019s downside move. All\nin all, though, limited change is visible in terms of technical structure. As\nsuch, much of the following piece will represent ideas aired in Wednesday\u2019s report.\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As highlighted in Monday\u2019s technical\nbriefing, the H4 candles have been busy carving out a consolidation\nbetween a support area coming in at 1481.1-1490.2 and a resistance zone at 1519.9-1512.1\nsince early October. Outside of this consolidation, nearby resistance resides\nin the form of September\u2019s opening level at 1526.2, whereas below we have\nOctober\u2019s opening level pencilled in from 1472.8. Additionally, the relative\nstrength index (RSI) is seen exiting oversold territory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Weekly price trades back at the top edge\nof a familiar support area at 1487.9-1470.2. Resistance is seen at 1536.9,\nwhereas two layers of support are visible at 1392.0 and 1417.8, in the event we\nnavigate lower ground. With respect to the longer-term primary trend, gold has\nbeen trading northbound since the later part of 2015 (1046.5).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Daily\nprice trades back within the walls of a descending channel (1557.1\/1484.6),\nthough tested the upper limit of this boundary yesterday. A break above here\nhas immediate resistance in the form of the 50-day SMA (blue \u2013 1501.0).\nIncreased selling has a support area priced in at 1448.9-1419.9 in view, which\nhappens to align closely with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement ratio at 1448.5.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Areas\nof consideration: <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Outlook\nunchanged.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Technically,\nthe expectation on the H4 timeframe is for a recovery from the lower edge of\nits range, though a whipsaw to October\u2019s opening level at 1472.8 is not out of\nthe question. Although buying is bolstered by the fact we\u2019re also coming off a\nweekly support area, daily price must, once again, contend with the upper edge\nof the daily channel resistance and 50-day SMA. As such, buying may be\nproblematic at this point.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In\nthe absence of clearer price action, opting to remain on the side lines may be\nthe better path to explore. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

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Europe\u2019s shared currency shifts into Thursday a shade lower against the buck, retreating from Wednesday\u2019s high at 1.1092. Tier-1 macroeconomic data was limited Wednesday, though better-than-expected Eurozone services PMIs did provide fresh impetus.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":81071,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[340,216,215,339,195],"tags":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37376"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=37376"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37376\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":37383,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37376\/revisions\/37383"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/81071"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=37376"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=37376"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=37376"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}