{"id":37303,"date":"2019-11-01T14:23:31","date_gmt":"2019-11-01T03:23:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/?p=37303"},"modified":"2025-11-17T16:53:29","modified_gmt":"2025-11-17T05:53:29","slug":"friday-1st-november-dollar-records-successive-losses-ahead-of-us-non-farm-payrolls","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/friday-1st-november-dollar-records-successive-losses-ahead-of-us-non-farm-payrolls\/","title":{"rendered":"Friday 1st November: Dollar records successive losses ahead of US non-farm payrolls."},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Key risk events today:<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

UK Manufacturing PMI; US Average Hourly\nEarnings m\/m; US Non-Farm Employment Change; US Unemployment Rate; US ISM\nManufacturing PMI; FOMC Members Clarida and Williams Speak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EUR\/USD:<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Europe\u2019s common currency finished\nunmoved against the buck Thursday, unresponsive to European growth and\nunemployment indicators. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Technically, this drove an indecisive\nclose, shaped in the form of a daily doji candlestick pattern sited a few\npoints south of last Monday\u2019s high at 1.1179, the 200-day SMA (orange \u2013 1.1196)\nand a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement ratio at 1.1211.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Heading into the final day of the week\nwhere participants eye the US jobs report, Fed speak and national ISM manufacturing\ndata, H4 action trades just beneath the base of resistance coming in at 1.1163\nafter a failed attempt at a breach. Continued bidding may lead to an approach\ntowards the 1.12 handle, which, according to daily structure, aligns closely\nwith both the 200-day SMA and the 61.8% Fibonacci ratio. In addition to this,\nindicator-based traders may wish to acknowledge the relative strength index\n(RSI) on the H4 trades a touch below its overbought value.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chart studies on the weekly timeframe\nreveal price remains engaging with the underside of a long-standing resistance\narea drawn from 1.1119-1.1295. A break of this zone has the 2019 yearly opening\nlevel to target at 1.1445, while a push lower has the 2016 yearly opening level\nat 1.0873 in sight. Regarding trend direction, the primary downtrend has been\nin motion since topping in early 2018 at 1.2555.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Areas of\nconsideration:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Unchanged from Thursday\u2019s outlook.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Though H4 resistance at 1.1163 held\nyesterday, most traders still likely have their crosshairs fixed on the 1.12\nhandle for shorts. Knowing this barrier merges with the 200-day SMA at 1.1196\nand a 61.8% daily Fibonacci resistance at 1.1211, as well as weekly price\ntrading within a resistance area at 1.1119-1.1295, this represents a\nhigh-probability sell zone. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Conservative traders, however, may opt\nto wait and see if a H4 bearish candlestick formation emerges before pulling\nthe trigger, in an attempt to avoid any whipsaw through 1.12, which is common\nviewing around psychological numbers (entry\/risk can then be set according to\nthis structure). <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

GBP\/USD:<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Sterling chalked up its fourth\nsuccessive close vs. the dollar Thursday, clocking highs of 1.2975. With\nmonth-end flows likely a factor alongside a fading dollar index, GBP\/USD trades\nfirm north of the 1.29 handle this morning, poised to approach the key figure\n1.30, based on H4 structure. Note 1.30 held price lower on two occasions during\nOctober, strengthened by a daily resistance area plotted at 1.3019-1.2975 and a\n161.8% Fibonacci ext. ratio at 1.2978. Traders may also wish to note the\nrelative strength index (RSI) rotated lower from overbought status in recent\nmovement. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

With respect to weekly price \u2013 following\nan engulf of the 2019 yearly opening level at 1.2739 \u2013 action remains stable,\nwith the possibility of a retest forming at 1.2739 or additional upside towards\nsupply at 1.3472-1.3204 and long-term trend line resistance etched from the\nhigh 1.5930.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Areas of consideration:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The break of 1.29 has potentially set\nthe technical stage for a bullish theme, targeting the underside of the daily\nresistance area at 1.3019-1.2975, followed by 1.30 on the H4. To take advantage\nof any upside above 1.29, traders, as of current price, may be watching for a\nretest at 1.29 to emerge before committing funds to a position. Should this\nunfold prior to the US job\u2019s numbers, taking a position before a big event is\nchancy. Generally, it\u2019s best to let the event take its course and then re-evaluate\nthe situation, rather than be whipsawed on a news spike. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

AUD\/USD:<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Action kicked off on a strong footing\nThursday, strengthened on the back of upbeat Australian building approvals in September.\nThe move, however, was reasonably short lived, topping at 0.6929 and\nconsequently reclaiming the 0.69 handle on the H4 timeframe to the downside in\nearly London. As is evident from the chart, price concluded the day a touch\nnorth of support coming in at 0.6883, with a break lower likely portending a\nrun towards August\u2019s opening level at 0.6848. Technicians who watch the\nrelative strength index (RSI) may also wish to note bearish divergence out of\noverbought terrain recently completed and forced an exit lower. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In terms of weekly price, the unit is challenging\nthe upper edge of its range between 0.6894\/0.6677 (light grey). A pivotal move\nhigher here exposes the 2019 yearly opening level at 0.7042, which has served\nwell as support\/resistance on several occasions in the past.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Before pressing for higher ground on the\nweekly timeframe, though, daily traders must contend with a swing resistance\nplotted at 0.6910 \u2013 held price lower yesterday by way of a half-hearted\nshooting star pattern (considered a bearish signal). A break above this level has\nnearby resistance in the shape of a 200-day SMA (orange \u2013 0.6955). The 50-day\nSMA (blue \u2013 0.6795) currently faces northbound, while the said 200-day SMA\nstill points south. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Areas of consideration:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Outlook similar to Thursday\u2019s technical briefing.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

AUD\/USD\u2019s technical framework, according\nto our chart studies, remains at a crossroads. While H4 price recently brushed\naside 0.69 and likely tripped a truckload of buy stops, the fact we\u2019re trading\nat the top edge of a weekly range at 0.6894 and at daily resistance drawn from\n0.6910, buying may be hampered. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Should we tunnel through 0.6883 today, selling\nhigher-timeframe structure is an option, targeting at least August\u2019s opening\nlevel at 0.6848, perhaps followed by a move to H4 support at 0.6809\/daily support\nat 0.6808.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

USD\/JPY:<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Trade concerns regarding the US and\nChina resurfaced Thursday after China voiced doubt about the possibility of a\nlong term-trade pact with US President Trump. This weighed on market sentiment,\nconsequently ramping up demand for the safe-haven Japanese yen. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Down 80 points, or 0.74%, USD\/JPY action\nwrapped up the day closing just north of 108 in the shape of a near-full-bodied\ndaily bearish candle. Additional layers of H4 support can be seen here at\n108.07, October\u2019s opening level, and trend line support extended from the low 104.44.\nDespite this, early movement this morning nudged beneath 108 and is challenging\nthe said trend line support, with a break suggesting a move to 107.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With reference to higher-timeframe\nstructure, daily price sold off following Wednesday\u2019s shooting star candlestick\npattern (considered a bearish signal) out of daily resistance between 109.17\/108.99\n(comprised of a resistance level at 109.17, the 200-day SMA [orange\/109.05 \u2013\nseen flattening] and Quasimodo resistance at 108.99).  The next downside target on this scale falls\nin close by at the 50-day SMA (blue \u2013 107.67), followed by support at 106.80.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Areas of consideration:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Traders who read Thursday\u2019s technical\nbriefing may recall the following piece:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although most traders short the 109\nhandle were likely taken out on the back of yesterday\u2019s move, the opportunity\nto re-enter the market short is certainly there.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Entry at current price is an option\ntoday, with protective stop-loss orders plotted above yesterday\u2019s high at\n109.28. The fact we have robust daily resistance in motion alongside a daily\nshooting star candlestick pattern (considered a bearish signal) is likely\nenough to draw in sellers to at least H4 support at 108.41, with a move to 108\nalso a possibility. <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Well done to any readers who managed to take\nadvantage of this move.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Going forward, a break of the current H4\ntrend line support is eyed, which if followed up with a retest (entry\/risk can\nbe set according to the rejection candle\u2019s structure), a bearish play towards\nthe 50-day SMA as the initial target, could be an option. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

USD\/CAD:<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

USD\/CAD action observed limited change\nThursday, ranging no more than 45 points. In terms of Canadian growth figures, Statistics\nCanada announced real gross domestic product (GDP) edged up 0.1% in August,\nfollowing no change in July. On a three-month rolling average basis, real gross\ndomestic product rose 0.5% in August, compared with a 0.8% increase in July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following Wednesday\u2019s test of the 1.32\nhandle on the H4 scale, which happens to align with a 50.0% retracement ratio\nat 1.3194, August\u2019s opening level at 1.3187, a trend line support-turned\nresistance etched from the low 1.3134 and the relative strength index (RSI)\nproducing a hidden bearish divergence signal within overbought territory (which\nrecently forced an exit lower), downside appears relatively free until reaching\n1.31.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With respect to the higher-timeframe\nlandscape, resistance is not expected to develop until reaching the 50-day SMA\n(blue \u2013 1.3223) and 200-day SMA (orange \u2013 1.3724). Interestingly, though, both\nmoving averages face a southerly position at the moment. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Areas of consideration:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Unchanged from Thursday\u2019s outlook.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In light of the technical confluence\nsupporting 1.32 as resistance on the H4 scale, this could promote further\nselling. However, entering at current price places the trader at a slight\ndisadvantage in regards to risk\/reward. Waiting and seeing if price action\nretests 1.32 a second time may be the alternative, entering on the back of the\nrejection candle\u2019s structure and targeting a move to 1.31.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

USD\/CHF:<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Broad-based risk-off flows kept USD\/CHF\non the backfoot Thursday, consequently recording its third consecutive daily\nloss. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Supply on the weekly timeframe, as underscored\nin Thursday\u2019s technical briefing, at 1.0014-0.9892 remains in play, and despite\nrecent selling, still resembles somewhat of a fragile tone. The beginning of\nOctober witnessed a penetration to the outer edge of the supply area\u2019s limit,\npossibly tripping a portion of buy stops and weakening sellers. According to\nthe primary trend, price reflects a slightly bullish tone; however, do remain\naware we have been rangebound since the later part of 2015 (0.9444\/1.0240). <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Concerning daily movement, recently\nclosed action extended losses beneath the 50-day SMA (blue \u2013 0.9909) and ended\nwithin striking distance of support surfacing around the 0.9850ish range. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

After crossing beneath 0.99 on the H4\nscale Wednesday, the candles ran into an interesting area of support at 0.9852-0.9873.\nConfirmed by the relative strength index (RSI) testing oversold territory, the\npair, despite a lacklustre attempt thus far, is likely to bounce <\/em>from\nhere and retest the underside of 0.99. Whether the unit has enough oomph to\ndethrone 0.99 and push for higher ground remains to be seen in light of daily\nprice driving through its 50-day SMA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Areas of consideration:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Unchanged from Thursday\u2019s outlook.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Searching for lower-timeframe buying\nopportunities out of the H4 support area at 0.9852-0.9873, with an upside\ntarget set at the 0.99 handle, remains an idea worthy of interest. Given recent\nselling, therefore driving deeper into the said H4 support zone, traders can\nenter using lower-timeframe action but position stop-loss orders beneath the H4\nzone. Lower-timeframe confirmation could simply be a bullish candlestick configuration,\na trend line break\/retest or even a break of resistance. Traders are, however,\nurged to ensure risk\/reward offers more than a 1:2 ratio to 0.99.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Dow Jones Industrial Average:<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Major US equity indexes turned lower\nThursday, as trade concerns regarding the US and China resurfaced after China voiced\ndoubt about the possibility of a long term-trade pact with US President Trump. The Dow Jones\nIndustrial Average lost 140.46 points, or 0.52%; the S&P 500 declined 9.20\npoints, or 0.30% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 closed flat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Technically, the Dow\u2019s H4 chart reveals\nsupport recently entered the mix at October\u2019s opening level fixed from 26947,\nwhich aligns closely with two trend line supports (25710\/27321). Further upside\nfrom this point is likely to challenge Wednesday\u2019s high at 27230, perhaps\nfollowed by a bump towards weekly resistance at 27335, sited only a few points\nsouth of the all-time high 27388.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Areas of consideration: <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although some traders may have effectively\n\u2018missed the boat\u2019 on a long from the two trend line supports on the H4\ntimeframe, a retest at October\u2019s opening level 26947 may offer a second\nopportunity to enter long. Preferably formed by way of a H4 bullish candlestick\nsignal, a long on the close of this candle, with a protective stop-loss order\nplotted either beneath the rejecting candle\u2019s lower shadow or the\naforementioned trend line supports, is certainly worthy of consideration. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

XAU\/USD (Gold):<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Since\nearly October, the H4 candles have been busy carving out a consolidation between\na support area coming in at 1481.1-1490.2 and a resistance zone at 1519.9-1512.1.\nThursday saw the price of bullion, in $ terms, advance higher amid an increased\ndemand for safe-haven assets on the back of resurfacing trade concerns between\nthe US and China. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Outside\nof the current H4 range, nearby resistance resides in the form of September\u2019s\nopening level at 1526.2, whereas below we have October\u2019s opening level pencilled\nin from 1472.8. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Technically\nspeaking, a breakout higher is the more likely route on the H4, considering the\nhigher-timeframe\u2019s picture. Gold remains bolstered by\na weekly support area coming in at 1487.9-1470.2. Weekly resistance is seen at\n1536.9, whereas two layers of weekly support are visible at 1392.0 and 1417.8,\nin the event we eventually push for lower ground. With respect to the\nlonger-term primary trend, gold has been trading northbound since the later\npart of 2015 (1046.5). In conjunction with weekly action, daily price recently\nbrushed aside the upper edge of a bullish flag (taken from the high 1557.1) and\nthe 50-day SMA (blue \u2013 1504.3). The next upside target from this region falls\nin at the 1535.6 September 24 high, closely shadowed by resistance at 1550.4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Areas\nof consideration: <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Having\nnoted higher-timeframe action is poised to move higher, selling the top edge of\nthe current H4 range at 1519.9-1512.1, despite the area holding a number in the\ntimes in the past, is considered chancy. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trading\nopportunities in this market, therefore, reside at the lower edge of the H4\nrange at 1481.1-1490.2; others, however, may be waiting for a breakout north to\noccur. While a break higher may be appealing to some traders, nearby H4 resistance\ndoes reside at 1526.2, with a break of this level also leaving little room for manoeuvre\nto weekly resistance mentioned above at 1536.9. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

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Europe\u2019s common currency finished unmoved against the buck Thursday, unresponsive to European growth and unemployment indicators.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":81071,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[216,215,339,195],"tags":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37303"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=37303"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37303\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":37310,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37303\/revisions\/37310"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/81071"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=37303"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=37303"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=37303"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}