We typically search for lower-timeframe confirmation between the M15 and H1 timeframes, since most of our higher-timeframe areas begin with the H4. Stops are usually placed 1-3 pips beyond confirming structures.<\/p>\n
\n<\/div>\n
\n\tEUR\/USD: \u202f <\/strong><\/h4>\nRecent trading shows that the single currency marginally extended Friday\u2019s correction, consequently pulling H4 price up to the mid-level resistance at 1.1750 which, as you can see, held firm into the closing bell. Considering that weekly action remains trading within the walls of a demand at 1.1662-1.1814, and daily price recently tapped the top edge of a demand area coming in at 1.1612-1.1684, 1.1750, we believe, will likely eventually give way.<\/p>\n
Suggestions: On the grounds that price is seen trading from higher-timeframe demands, looking for longs above 1.1750 could be an option today. Once\/if price crosses beyond this hurdle, October\u2019s opening level at 1.1788\/1.18 handle, followed closely by August\u2019s opening level at 1.1830 will be the next upside targets in the spotlight.<\/p>\n
Data points to consider: FOMC member Kashkari speaks at 3pm GMT+1.<\/p>\n
![\"EUR\"](\"http:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/10\/EUR6.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\nLevels to watch\/live orders:<\/u> <\/p>\n\n- \n\t\tBuys: Watch for H4 price to engulf 1.1750 and then look to trade any retest seen thereafter ([waiting for a lower-timeframe confirming signal to form following the retest is advised \u2013 see the top of this report] stop loss: dependent on where one confirms this level).<\/li>\n
- \n\t\tSells: Flat (stop loss: N\/A).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
\n\tGBP\/USD: <\/strong>\u202f <\/h4>\nLeaving the weekend gap unfilled, the British pound rallied against its US counterpart on Monday, taking out the nearby 1.31 handle and later whipsawing through the top edge of a H4 resistance area marked at 1.3164-1.3132. The move, in our technical opinion, was bolstered by the current daily support area seen at 1.3058-1.2979. However, given the recent selling we\u2019ve seen in this market, we don\u2019t believe that this upside move is sustainable. In addition to this, weekly price recently re-entered an ascending channel formation (1.1986\/1.2673), potentially opening up downside to as low as the demand area positioned at 1.2589-1.2759, which happens to merge with the noted channel support.<\/p>\n
Suggestions: Near-term bias is tilted to the downside for now, in our view. The whipsaw above the current H4 resistance area has likely filled a boatload of stops, providing liquidity for bigger traders to sell and potentially bring the unit down to at least 1.31. This, at least for us, however, is not something we would be interested in trading. There\u2019s just not enough technical confluence.<\/p>\n
As such, the team has concluded that remaining on the sidelines may be the better path to take today.<\/p>\n
Data points to consider: UK manufacturing production m\/m and goods trade balance at 9.30am; FOMC member Kashkari speaks at 3pm GMT+1.<\/p>\n
![\"GBP\"](\"http:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/10\/GBP6.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\nLevels to watch\/live orders:<\/u> <\/p>\n\n- \n\t\tBuys: Flat (stop loss: N\/A).<\/li>\n
- \n\t\tSells: Flat (stop loss: N\/A).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
\n\tAUD\/USD: <\/strong>\u202f <\/h4>\nKicking this morning\u2019s report off with a quick look at the weekly timeframe, we can see that price is attempting to tunnel its way through the lower edge of a support area fixed at 0.7849-0.7752. A continued push to the downside from here would highly likely see the unit challenge nearby trendline support extended from the high 0.7835. Before the weekly sellers can accomplish this, however, the broken Quasimodo level at 0.7740 seen on the daily timeframe will need to be consumed.<\/p>\n
As can be seen on the H4 timeframe this morning, price failed to print anything of note during Monday\u2019s segment. The commodity currency remains bid above the mid-level support at 0.7750 at the moment and, as far as we can see, there\u2019s little active supply overhead until we reach the 0.78 handle.<\/p>\n
Suggestions: In view of weekly price, entering long in this market is tricky, despite both H4 and daily price trading from support at the moment. With this in mind, it would be, at best, a guess trade given the conflicting higher-timeframe signals. For that reason, opting to stand on the sidelines today may be the better route to take.<\/p>\n
Data points to consider: NAB business confidence at 1.30am; RBA Assist Gov. Debelle speech at 4.20am; FOMC member Kashkari speaks at 3pm GMT+1.<\/p>\n
![\"AUD\"](\"http:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/10\/AUD6.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\nLevels to watch\/live orders:<\/u> <\/p>\n\n- \n\t\tBuys: Flat (stop loss: N\/A).<\/li>\n
- \n\t\tSells: Flat (stop loss: N\/A).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
\n\tUSD\/JPY:<\/strong> \u202f <\/h4>\nAs expected, it was a quiet Monday given both US and Japanese banks were closed. H4 price spent the day trading in a confined range around October\u2019s opening level at 112.64, after tapping a session low of 112.33 in early trade. Due to yesterday\u2019s lackluster performance, much of the following report will echo thoughts put forward in Monday\u2019s analysis\u2026<\/p>\n
The weekly candles appear somewhat exhausted ahead of weekly supply coming in at 115.50-113.85. Although we believe dollar bulls will still likely challenge the noted supply, the back-to-back weekly selling wicks may encourage sellers into the market this week. In conjunction with weekly flow, the picture on the daily timeframe also reveals space for the bulls to push north this week up to the trendline resistance extended from the high 115.50 (merges nicely with the noted weekly supply). With that being said though, Friday\u2019s bearish selling wick looks somewhat threatening and therefore could still force price back down to retest support at 111.91.<\/em><\/p>\nSuggestions: The 112 handle remains in the spotlight. For those of you who follow our reports on a regular basis you may recall we have been banging the drum about 112 for a while now. Here\u2019s why:<\/em><\/p>\n\n- \n\t\tPositioned directly above daily support at 111.91.<\/em><\/li>\n
- \n\t\tLocated just below July\u2019s opening level at 112.09.<\/em><\/li>\n
- \n\t\tSited nearby a Fibonacci cluster comprised of a 38.2% support at 111.96 taken from the low 109.54, a 61.8% support at 112 from the low 111.09 and a 78.6% support at 111.90 drawn from the low 111.47.<\/em><\/li>\n
- \n\t\tThe stop-loss orders planted below the range edge at 112.32 (see yellow box). When these stops are triggered they, along with breakout sellers\u2019 orders, become sell orders and thus help provide traders with deep pockets the liquidity required to buy.<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Suggestions: With space seen for both weekly and daily action to push higher, coupled with the 112 handle\u2019s surrounding confluence mentioned above, a long from the green H4 buy zone is worthy of attention. As psychological levels are prone to fakeouts, however, you may want to wait for H4 price to confirm buyer intent before pulling the trigger. For us, this would simply be a full or near-full-bodied bullish candle seen within the green zone, which would, in our view, provide enough evidence to hold the position up to at least October\u2019s opening level at 112.64\/113 handle.<\/em><\/p>\nData points to consider: FOMC member Kashkari speaks at 3pm GMT+1.<\/p>\n
![\"YEN\"](\"http:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/10\/YEN.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\nLevels to watch\/live orders:<\/u> <\/p>\n\n- \n\t\tBuys: 111.91\/112.09 ([waiting for a reasonably sized H4 bullish candle to form \u2013 preferably a full, or near-full-bodied candle \u2013 is advised] stop loss: ideally beyond the candle\u2019s tail).<\/li>\n
- \n\t\tSells: Flat (stop loss: N\/A).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
\n\tUSD\/CAD: \u202f <\/strong><\/h4>\nTrading volume was thin on Monday as both US and Canadian banks were closed. H4 price, as you can see, traded within a narrow 30-pip band (1.2558\/1.2526). Against this background, much of the following analysis will follow a similar path to Monday\u2019s outlook\u2026<\/p>\n
Last week\u2019s trade showed that weekly flow marginally close above a trendline resistance taken from the low 0.9633. Despite this, the daily candles, as you can see, remain fixed within a strong-looking supply at 1.2663-1.2511.<\/em><\/p>\n1.25 has the potential to bounce price, in our humble opinion. Not only does the level converge with a H4 channel support etched from the low 1.2194, it also boasts August (1.2498), September (1.2481) and October\u2019s (1.2485) monthly opening levels (see H4 green zone). Why we believe these supports will only bounce price is simply due to where the candles are trading on the bigger picture (see above), along with the strong downtrend this market is in at the moment.<\/em><\/p>\nSuggestions: Assuming that your trading plan agrees with the noted outlook, we would strongly advise waiting for at least a reasonably sized H4 bull candle to take shape from 1.25, preferably in the form of a full or near-full-bodied candle, before pulling the trigger. This will, of course, not guarantee a successful trade given the position of price on the higher timeframes, but what it will do is show buyer intent around a high-probability buy zone.<\/p>\n
Data points to consider: FOMC member Kashkari speaks at 3pm; CAD Building permits m\/m at 1.30pm; Gov. Council member Wilkins speech at 7pm GMT+1.<\/p>\n
![\"CAD\"](\"http:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/10\/CAD6.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\nLevels to watch\/live orders:<\/u> <\/p>\n\n- \n\t\tBuys: 1.25 region ([waiting for a reasonably sized H4 bullish candle to form \u2013 preferably a full, or near-full-bodied candle \u2013 is advised] stop loss: ideally beyond the candle\u2019s tail).<\/li>\n
- \n\t\tSells: Flat (stop loss: N\/A).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
\n\tUSD\/CHF:<\/strong> \u202f <\/h4>\nUS markets were closed due to an official holiday on Monday, consequently causing trading volume to thin out. The pair did, however, move enough to retest the underside of the 0.98 handle, which has done a marvelous job in holding H4 price lower. Should the bears remain in the driving seat here, the next port of call, apart from Friday\u2019s lows of 0.9770, will likely be the H4 demand base logged in at 0.9743-0.9756. Over on the daily timeframe, nearby support at 0.9770 will likely be brought into the picture today. If this level holds ground, this could place upward pressure on the weekly trendline resistance extended from the low 0.9257. <\/p>\n
Suggestions: Unless you fancy your chances selling into the current daily support, trading short based on where weekly price is positioned at the moment is not something we\u2019d stamp a high-probability trade. Buying from the nearby H4 demand, although a reasonably strong-looking zone, is also an awkward trade given that you\u2019d effectively be buying into potential weekly sellers!<\/p>\n
With the above notes in mind, remaining flat seems the only logical call, in our humble view.<\/p>\n
Data points to consider: FOMC member Kashkari speaks at 3pm GMT+1.<\/p>\n
![\"SWISSIE\"](\"http:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/10\/SWISSIE3.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\nLevels to watch\/live orders:<\/u> <\/p>\n\n- \n\t\tBuys: Flat (stop loss: N\/A).<\/li>\n
- \n\t\tSells: Flat (stop loss: N\/A).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
\n\tDOW 30: \u202f<\/strong> <\/h4>\nTrading volume was thin during yesterday\u2019s segment due to the Columbus Day holiday in the US. The high for the day came in at 22799 and the session low was clocked at 22734 \u2013 a 65-point range.<\/p>\n
Given yesterday\u2019s lackluster performance, we still have our eye on the newly-formed H4 demand base at 22635-22672 for potential longs. Not only has this demand formed within an incredibly strong uptrend, it also fuses with a recently broken H4 channel resistance extended from the high 22431 (now acting support).<\/p>\n
Suggestions: With the uptrend in this market clearly strong and intact, we\u2019re now looking for H4 price to pullback and connect with the said H4 demand at the point where the H4 channel support converges (yellow marker). Should a reasonably sized H4 bull candle take shape from this area (preferably a full or near-full-bodied candle), we would have little hesitation in pulling the trigger here. <\/em><\/p>\nData points to consider: FOMC member Kashkari speaks at 3pm GMT+1.<\/p>\n
<\/a><\/p>\nLevels to watch\/live orders:<\/u> <\/p>\n Leaving the weekend gap unfilled, the British pound rallied against its US counterpart on Monday, taking out the nearby 1.31 handle and later whipsawing through the top edge of a H4 resistance area marked at 1.3164-1.3132. The move, in our technical opinion, was bolstered by the current daily support area seen at 1.3058-1.2979. However, given the recent selling we\u2019ve seen in this market, we don\u2019t believe that this upside move is sustainable. In addition to this, weekly price recently re-entered an ascending channel formation (1.1986\/1.2673), potentially opening up downside to as low as the demand area positioned at 1.2589-1.2759, which happens to merge with the noted channel support.<\/p>\n Suggestions: Near-term bias is tilted to the downside for now, in our view. The whipsaw above the current H4 resistance area has likely filled a boatload of stops, providing liquidity for bigger traders to sell and potentially bring the unit down to at least 1.31. This, at least for us, however, is not something we would be interested in trading. There\u2019s just not enough technical confluence.<\/p>\n As such, the team has concluded that remaining on the sidelines may be the better path to take today.<\/p>\n Data points to consider: UK manufacturing production m\/m and goods trade balance at 9.30am; FOMC member Kashkari speaks at 3pm GMT+1.<\/p>\n Levels to watch\/live orders:<\/u> <\/p>\n Kicking this morning\u2019s report off with a quick look at the weekly timeframe, we can see that price is attempting to tunnel its way through the lower edge of a support area fixed at 0.7849-0.7752. A continued push to the downside from here would highly likely see the unit challenge nearby trendline support extended from the high 0.7835. Before the weekly sellers can accomplish this, however, the broken Quasimodo level at 0.7740 seen on the daily timeframe will need to be consumed.<\/p>\n As can be seen on the H4 timeframe this morning, price failed to print anything of note during Monday\u2019s segment. The commodity currency remains bid above the mid-level support at 0.7750 at the moment and, as far as we can see, there\u2019s little active supply overhead until we reach the 0.78 handle.<\/p>\n Suggestions: In view of weekly price, entering long in this market is tricky, despite both H4 and daily price trading from support at the moment. With this in mind, it would be, at best, a guess trade given the conflicting higher-timeframe signals. For that reason, opting to stand on the sidelines today may be the better route to take.<\/p>\n Data points to consider: NAB business confidence at 1.30am; RBA Assist Gov. Debelle speech at 4.20am; FOMC member Kashkari speaks at 3pm GMT+1.<\/p>\n Levels to watch\/live orders:<\/u> <\/p>\n As expected, it was a quiet Monday given both US and Japanese banks were closed. H4 price spent the day trading in a confined range around October\u2019s opening level at 112.64, after tapping a session low of 112.33 in early trade. Due to yesterday\u2019s lackluster performance, much of the following report will echo thoughts put forward in Monday\u2019s analysis\u2026<\/p>\n The weekly candles appear somewhat exhausted ahead of weekly supply coming in at 115.50-113.85. Although we believe dollar bulls will still likely challenge the noted supply, the back-to-back weekly selling wicks may encourage sellers into the market this week. In conjunction with weekly flow, the picture on the daily timeframe also reveals space for the bulls to push north this week up to the trendline resistance extended from the high 115.50 (merges nicely with the noted weekly supply). With that being said though, Friday\u2019s bearish selling wick looks somewhat threatening and therefore could still force price back down to retest support at 111.91.<\/em><\/p>\n Suggestions: The 112 handle remains in the spotlight. For those of you who follow our reports on a regular basis you may recall we have been banging the drum about 112 for a while now. Here\u2019s why:<\/em><\/p>\n Suggestions: With space seen for both weekly and daily action to push higher, coupled with the 112 handle\u2019s surrounding confluence mentioned above, a long from the green H4 buy zone is worthy of attention. As psychological levels are prone to fakeouts, however, you may want to wait for H4 price to confirm buyer intent before pulling the trigger. For us, this would simply be a full or near-full-bodied bullish candle seen within the green zone, which would, in our view, provide enough evidence to hold the position up to at least October\u2019s opening level at 112.64\/113 handle.<\/em><\/p>\n Data points to consider: FOMC member Kashkari speaks at 3pm GMT+1.<\/p>\n Levels to watch\/live orders:<\/u> <\/p>\n Trading volume was thin on Monday as both US and Canadian banks were closed. H4 price, as you can see, traded within a narrow 30-pip band (1.2558\/1.2526). Against this background, much of the following analysis will follow a similar path to Monday\u2019s outlook\u2026<\/p>\n Last week\u2019s trade showed that weekly flow marginally close above a trendline resistance taken from the low 0.9633. Despite this, the daily candles, as you can see, remain fixed within a strong-looking supply at 1.2663-1.2511.<\/em><\/p>\n 1.25 has the potential to bounce price, in our humble opinion. Not only does the level converge with a H4 channel support etched from the low 1.2194, it also boasts August (1.2498), September (1.2481) and October\u2019s (1.2485) monthly opening levels (see H4 green zone). Why we believe these supports will only bounce price is simply due to where the candles are trading on the bigger picture (see above), along with the strong downtrend this market is in at the moment.<\/em><\/p>\n Suggestions: Assuming that your trading plan agrees with the noted outlook, we would strongly advise waiting for at least a reasonably sized H4 bull candle to take shape from 1.25, preferably in the form of a full or near-full-bodied candle, before pulling the trigger. This will, of course, not guarantee a successful trade given the position of price on the higher timeframes, but what it will do is show buyer intent around a high-probability buy zone.<\/p>\n Data points to consider: FOMC member Kashkari speaks at 3pm; CAD Building permits m\/m at 1.30pm; Gov. Council member Wilkins speech at 7pm GMT+1.<\/p>\n Levels to watch\/live orders:<\/u> <\/p>\n US markets were closed due to an official holiday on Monday, consequently causing trading volume to thin out. The pair did, however, move enough to retest the underside of the 0.98 handle, which has done a marvelous job in holding H4 price lower. Should the bears remain in the driving seat here, the next port of call, apart from Friday\u2019s lows of 0.9770, will likely be the H4 demand base logged in at 0.9743-0.9756. Over on the daily timeframe, nearby support at 0.9770 will likely be brought into the picture today. If this level holds ground, this could place upward pressure on the weekly trendline resistance extended from the low 0.9257. <\/p>\n Suggestions: Unless you fancy your chances selling into the current daily support, trading short based on where weekly price is positioned at the moment is not something we\u2019d stamp a high-probability trade. Buying from the nearby H4 demand, although a reasonably strong-looking zone, is also an awkward trade given that you\u2019d effectively be buying into potential weekly sellers!<\/p>\n With the above notes in mind, remaining flat seems the only logical call, in our humble view.<\/p>\n Data points to consider: FOMC member Kashkari speaks at 3pm GMT+1.<\/p>\n Levels to watch\/live orders:<\/u> <\/p>\n Trading volume was thin during yesterday\u2019s segment due to the Columbus Day holiday in the US. The high for the day came in at 22799 and the session low was clocked at 22734 \u2013 a 65-point range.<\/p>\n Given yesterday\u2019s lackluster performance, we still have our eye on the newly-formed H4 demand base at 22635-22672 for potential longs. Not only has this demand formed within an incredibly strong uptrend, it also fuses with a recently broken H4 channel resistance extended from the high 22431 (now acting support).<\/p>\n Suggestions: With the uptrend in this market clearly strong and intact, we\u2019re now looking for H4 price to pullback and connect with the said H4 demand at the point where the H4 channel support converges (yellow marker). Should a reasonably sized H4 bull candle take shape from this area (preferably a full or near-full-bodied candle), we would have little hesitation in pulling the trigger here. <\/em><\/p>\n Data points to consider: FOMC member Kashkari speaks at 3pm GMT+1.<\/p>\n\n
\n\tGBP\/USD: <\/strong>\u202f <\/h4>\n
<\/a><\/p>\n\n
\n\tAUD\/USD: <\/strong>\u202f <\/h4>\n
<\/a><\/p>\n\n
\n\tUSD\/JPY:<\/strong> \u202f <\/h4>\n
\n
<\/a><\/p>\n\n
\n\tUSD\/CAD: \u202f <\/strong><\/h4>\n
<\/a><\/p>\n\n
\n\tUSD\/CHF:<\/strong> \u202f <\/h4>\n
<\/a><\/p>\n\n
\n\tDOW 30: \u202f<\/strong> <\/h4>\n