Wednesday 17th June: European Open Briefing

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Wednesday 17th June: European Open Briefing 1

Global Markets:

  • Asian stock markets: Nikkei down 0.40 %, Shanghai Composite fell 1.25 %, Hang Seng gained 0.40 %, ASX rose 1.05 %
  • Commodities: Gold at $1180 (-0.10 %), Silver at $15.95 (-0.10 %), WTI Oil at $60.50 (+0.10 %), Brent Oil at $63.75 (-0.15 %)
  • Rates: US 10 year yield at 2.30, UK 10 year yield at 1.98, German 10 year yield at 0.79

News & Data:

  • New Zealand Current Account NZ$0.66bln q/q, Expected: NZ$0.23bln, Previous: -NZ$3.19bln
  • New Zealand Current Account -NZ$8.60bln y/y, Expected: -NZ$9.10bln, Previous: -NZ$7.82bln
  • Japan Trade Balance -¥216bln, Expected: -¥226bln, Previous: -¥53bln
  • Japan Exports 2.4 % y/y, Expected: 3.5 %, Previous: 8.0 %
  • Japan Imports -8.7 % y/y, Expected: -7.5 %, Previous: -4.2 %
  • Australia MI Leading Index -0.1 %, Previous: 0.1 %
  • Asia shares, dollar dither as focus turns to Fed – RTRS
  • Greek PM tears into lenders as euro zone prepares for 'Grexit' – RTRS
  • U.S. building permits near eight-year high; starts pull back – RTRS
  • Japanese Stocks Follow U.S. Shares Higher on Fed Rate Outlook – BBG

Markets Update:

Markets have calmed down ahead of the Fed rate decision today. Most analysts expect the Fed to hold rates unchanged at zero until September this year, so the focus will be on the new quarterly forecasts from Fed officials. Fed Chair Yellen is likely to repeat that the Fed is data dependent and that a rate hike this year would be appropriate provided the economy improved as the Fed expected.

EUR/USD rallied to 1.1330 in yesterday’s London session, as stops got cleared. However, the pair quickly retraced those gains and settled now again around 1.1260. It will likely be quiet today, as many are waiting for further clues from the Fed, though headlines about Greece could trigger some volatility. The key levels to watch are 1.1330, 1.1390 to the topside and 1.1205, 1.1155 to the downside.

Upcoming Events:

  • 09:30 BST – UK Unemployment Rate
  • 09:30 BST – UK Claimant Count Change
  • 09:30 BST – UK Average Earnings Index
  • 09:30 BST – Bank of England Meeting Minutes
  • 10:00 BST – Euro Zone CPI
  • 13:30 BST – Canadian Wholesale Sales
  • 19:00 BST – Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
  • 19:00 BST – FOMC Statement
  • 19:30 BST – Fed Chair Yellen speaks

 

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