Wednesday 15th March: European Open Briefing

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Wednesday 15th March: European Open Briefing 1

Global Markets:

  • Asian stock markets: Nikkei down 0.20 %, Shanghai Composite gained 0.05 %, Hang Seng lost 0.30 %, ASX 200 fell 0.35 %
  • Commodities: Gold at $1201 (-0.15 %), Silver at $16.95 (+0.15 %), WTI Oil at $48.50 (+1.60 %), Brent Oil at $51.65 (+1.40 %)
  • Rates: US 10 year yield at 2.60, UK 10 year yield at 1.23, German 10 year yield at 0.45

News & Data:

  • New Zealand Current Account (NZD) (Q4): -2.335bn (est -2.425bn, prev -4.891bn)
  • Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence SA (Mar): +0.1% @ 99.7 (prev +2.3% @ 99.6)
  • Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) (Feb): -2.70% (prev 0.60%)
  • Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY) (Feb): -4.10% (prev -0.90%)
  • PBOC sets USD/CNY central rate at 6.9115 (vs. yesterday at 6.9118)
  • Asian stocks slip, Fed's decision day makes investors wary – RTRS
  • Dollar off recent highs ahead of expected Fed rate hike – RTRS

Markets Update:

The Dollar is bid ahead of the Federal Reserve rate decision tonight. EUR/USD traded as low as 1.0605 yesterday, and price action is looking increasingly bearish. Key intraday support is noted at 1.0570 and 1.0520.

Meanwhile, USD/JPY tested Friday's high at 115.40 yesterday. While it failed to break above it, it remains well supported. In Asia, the pair consolidated in a 114.65-85 range. Should it break above 115.40 resistance, a rally towards 117 seems likely.

The US central bank will very likely increase rates by 25bps, and signal that further rate hikes could follow this year. Much will depend on the new forecasts and the tone of the FOMC though. Should they remain rather cautious overall, the Dollar could come under pressure. Since a rate hike tomorrow is almost 100 % priced in, that alone will not support the Dollar by much.

Upcoming Events:

  • 07:45 GMT – French CPI
  • 08:15 GMT – Swiss PPI
  • 09:30 GMT – UK Unemployment Rate
  • 09:30 GMT – UK Claimant Count Change
  • 09:30 GMT – UK Average Hourly Earnings
  • 10:00 GMT – Italian CPI
  • 12:30 GMT – US CPI
  • 12:30 GMT – US Retail Sales
  • 14:00 GMT – US NAHB Housing Market Index
  • 14:30 GMT – US Crude Oil Inventories
  • 18:00 GMT – Federal Reserve Rate Decision
  • 18:00 GMT – FOMC Statement
  • 18:30 GMT – FOMC Press Conference
  • 21:45 GMT – New Zealand GDP

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