Tuesday 25th October: European Open Briefing

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Global Markets:

  • Asian stock markets: Nikkei up 0.74 %, Shanghai Composite and Hang Seng both fell 0.15 %, ASX 200 rose 0.60 %
  • Commodities: Gold at $1265 (+0.15 %), Silver at $17.65 (+0.20 %), WTI Oil at $50.50 (-0.05 %), Brent Oil at $51.40 (-0.15%)
  • Rates: US 10 year yield at 1.76, UK 10 year yield at 1.07, German 10 year yield at 0.03

News & Data:

  • Australia ANZ Weekly Consumer Confidence 113.6 (previous 117.8)
  • South Korea GDP Quarter on quarter 0.70 % (exp 0.60, prev 0.80 %), Year on year 2.70 % (exp 2.60 %, prev 3.30 %)
  • PBOC sets USDCNY fix at 6.7744 (prev 6.7690)
  • SNB President Jordan: Negative interest rates necessary and appropriate for Switzerland
  • Jordan: SNB has been intervening in FX market as necessary
  • Fed's Evans: Less headroom to raise rates due to low inflation
  • Evans: Pace of hikes should be tied to progress on achieving inflation goal
  • Evans: Want three hikes before end of 2017

Markets Update:

The Canadian Dollar saw increased volatility in the early Asian session following a statement from Bank of Canada Governor Poloz. He said that it is appropriate to wait for 18 months or so, which was initially interpreted by the markets as referring to monetary policy, i.e. that the BOC will stay on hold for a while. USDCAD crashed from 1.3380 to 1.3280, but eventually recovered as Poloz clarified that the comment was regarding the output gap, and not monetary policy.

The Chinese Yuan continues to weaken, and the PBOC has set today's fix once again higher. Yesterday, the offshore Yuan reached a fresh record low against the US Dollar. The Yuan is under pressure amid broad USD strength and the rather weak Chinese economic data lately.

EURUSD and GBPUSD were quiet in Asia and while USDJPY remains bid, it is still struggling with resistance at 104.50. To the downside, good support is seen at 103.80 and 103.20/25.

Upcoming Events:

  • 09:00 BST – German IFO Business Expectations
  • 09:00 BST – German IFO Business Climate
  • 14:00 BST – US House Price Index
  • 15:00 BST – US CB Consumer Confidence
  • 15:00 BST – US Richmond Manufacturing Index
  • 15:35 BST – Bank of England Governor Carney speaks
  • 16:30 BST – ECB President Draghi speaks

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