Tuesday 13th September: European Open Briefing

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Tuesday 13th September: European Open Briefing 1

Global Markets:

  • Asian stock markets: Nikkei up 0.25 %, Shanghai Composite fell 0.20 %, Hang Seng rose 0.95 %, ASX 200 gained 0.05 %
  • Commodities: Gold at $1333.55 (+0.60 %), Silver at $19.28 (+1.50 %), WTI Oil at $45.90 (-0.80 %), Brent Oil at $48.00 (-0.70 %)
  • Rates: US 10 year yield at 1.65, UK 10 year yield at 0.86, German 10 year yield at 0.03

News & Data:

  • China Retail Sales (YoY) Aug: 10.6% (est 10.3% prev 10.2%)
  • China Retail Sales (YtD YoY) Aug: 10.3% (est 10.3% prev 10.3%)
  • China Industrial Production (YoY) Aug: 6.3% (est 6.1% prev 6.0%)
  • Chinese Industrial Production (YtD YoY) Aug: 6.0% (est 6.0% prev 6.0%)
  • Japan BSI Large All Industry (QoQ) Q3: 1.9 (prev -7.9)
  • Japan BSI Large Manufacturing (QoQ) Q3: 2.9 (prev -11.1)
  • Australia ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index (W/E 11 Sep): 118.1 (prev 114.3)
  • Australia NAB Business Survey (Aug): -Conditions: 7 (prev rev 9) -Confidence: 6 (prev 4)
  • South Korea Unemployment Rate SA (Aug): 3.8% (est 3.6% prev 3.6%)
  • New Zealand Food Prices (MoM) Aug: 1.3% (prev -0.2%)
  • RBA’s Kent: Reasonable Prospect of Sustaining Economic Growth in Australia — RTRS
  • Kent: Plausible Terms of Trade Will Stabilise Given Rise in Commodity Prices This Year
  • Kent: A$ Did Not Fall as Much as Implied by Terms of Trade, Due to Global Policy Easing
  • Kent: Outlook for Chinese Economy Remains a Key Source of Uncertainty
  • Kent: Would Hesitate to Say Where the A$ Should Be, Can't Forecast It Well
  • Kent: Inflation Targeting Very Well Understood, Target Has Achieved Its Goals

Markets Update:

Asian stock markets rose after better than expected economic data out of China. Retail sales and industrial production both increased more than analysts had anticipated.

In FX, it was relatively quiet. The Australian Dollar had the largest move overnight, although that is only 0.30 %. RBA member Kent spoke overnight and his comments were quite hawkish, as he maintained a bullish outlook on the Australian economy. His comments did not have much of an impact on the market though, and he did not comment specifically on the Australian Dollar.

AUD/USD started the day around 0.7565 and fell to a low of 0.7535 in Asia. NZD/USD traded in a 0.7335-65 range and USD/CAD was caught between 1.3030 and 1.3055.

In the other major pairs, volatility remained low in Asia. EUR/USD consolidated between 1.1225 and 1.1240, while GBP/USD traded 1.3315-40. USD/JPY was slightly more volatile, as it fell from 102.00 to 101.40 in the early part of the Asian session, but managed to bounce from there and rallied back to 102.

Upcoming Events:

  • 07:00 BST – German CPI
  • 08:15 BST – Swiss PPI
  • 09:00 BST – Italian Industrial Production
  • 09:30 BST – UK CPI
  • 10:00 BST – German ZEW Economic Sentiment
  • 10:00 BST – Euro Zone ZEW Economic Sentiment
  • 23:45 BST – New Zealand Current Account

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